At 10 a.m. tomorrow, the Information Office of the State Council will hold a significant press conference, at which Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and responsible persons of the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the People's Bank of China, and the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration will attend to introduce the situation of promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market and answer questions from reporters.
This time, the five major departments of the central government will play a blockbuster "combination punch" to further boost the confidence of the real estate market, further fight the battle of ensuring the delivery of housing, further promote the "white list", and further implement the goal of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize.
Look at the situation
Look at things, it depends on the situation of it.
How to evaluate the current real estate market performance and do a good job in real estate? On September 26, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee gave a clear judgment and key requirements: to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, strictly control the increment of commercial housing construction, optimize the stock, improve the quality, increase the "white list" project loans, and support the revitalization of the stock of idle land. It is necessary to respond to the concerns of the masses, adjust the housing purchase restriction policy, reduce the interest rate of the stock of housing loans, pay close attention to improving the land, fiscal and taxation, financial and other policies, and promote the construction of a new model of real estate development.
In front of the statement of the deployment of real estate work, it is also particularly emphasized that "it is necessary to increase the counter-cyclical adjustment of fiscal and monetary policies, ensure the necessary financial expenditures, and do a good job in the grass-roots 'three guarantees'." It is necessary to issue and use ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and local government special bonds to give better play to the leading role of government investment. It is necessary to lower the reserve requirement ratio and implement a forceful interest rate cut. ”
At present, it has been effective in "responding to the concerns of the masses, adjusting the housing purchase restriction policy, and reducing the interest rate of the stock of housing loans".
On September 29, Ni Hong, Secretary of the Party Group and Minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, presided over a meeting of the Party Group to convey and study the spirit of the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on September 26, and to study, deploy and implement the work. The meeting emphasized that it is necessary to guide all localities to effectively implement the stock policy, strengthen the implementation of incremental policies, respond to the concerns of the masses, support cities, especially first-tier cities, to make good use of the autonomy of real estate market regulation and control, and adjust the housing purchase restriction policy due to urban policies.
In the evening of the same day, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen announced the adjustment of the housing purchase restriction policy, and Guangzhou completely canceled the purchase restriction policy. A day later, Beijing also announced an adjustment to the housing purchase restriction policy.
The People's Bank of China also announced overnight that it would reduce the interest rate on existing housing loans, and unify the minimum down payment ratio for the first and second homes to no less than 15%.
These responses are positive, and the effects are clear. According to the data of Shenzhen Real Estate Information Network, 1,841 new commercial residential buildings in the city were subscribed and sold during the National Day holiday, an increase of 664% over the same period last year. In the week of October 7 to 13, a total of 329 new homes were transacted in Shenzhen, up 70.5% month-on-month. During the National Day period, the number of online signatures for new and second-hand houses in Beijing increased by 730% and 58% compared with the same period last year, the average daily transaction of second-hand houses in Shanghai was 305 units, nearly three times that of the same period in 2023, and the average subscription volume of Guangzhou's National Day holiday reached twice the level of the whole month of September.
The strength or weakness of the real estate market is an important pole that affects economic growth and stability.
From October 10th to 12th, Vice Premier He Lifeng of the State Council went to Shanxi and Shaanxi to investigate real estate and other work and pointed out that the real estate market is a vane of the current macroeconomy, and doing a good job in real estate is very important to promote the sustained economic recovery and safeguard the vital interests of the people.
After a series of policy optimizations and lifts, the real estate market is indeed showing a positive trend this year. However, every step is not easy.
During the National Day holiday, although the real estate market in key cities has seen a "rebound" momentum, but to be sustainable, it is necessary to further overcome some difficulties and challenges, mainly to ensure the delivery of housing, white list, and land and stock housing storage, these are still the real estate and economic cycle of the existence of the blockage, in the external environment of the complexity, severity, uncertainty of the rising moment, the effective market must also be through the promising government to take advantage of the momentum, gather momentum and strength.
Optimistic about the direction
At every major historical turning point, the most important thing is undoubtedly to identify the direction.
At the end of 2023, the Central Economic Work Conference made arrangements for economic work in 2024, focusing on seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, establishing first and then breaking down, and producing more policies that are conducive to stabilizing expectations, growth, and employment.
In 2021 and 2022, the relevant expression is "stability first, seeking progress while maintaining stability", and in 2023, "promoting stability through progress", which is a new formulation.
"Promoting stability with progress" for the real estate market is to insist on solving whatever problems there are. After years of regulation and governance, speculation in the real estate market will no longer appear on a large scale, and it will not rise sharply due to speculation and speculation after the release of purchase restrictions as in the previous overheating period. At a time when major changes have taken place in the relationship between supply and demand in the mainland's real estate market, it is a matter of course to adjust, optimize, or even cancel some restrictive policies during the period when the market is overheated, and the flexibility and principle of the policies must be truly unified and effective.
Since the beginning of this year, in order to "stabilize the market", the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has been making unremitting efforts. At the beginning of the year on January 26 this year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development held an early meeting on the deployment of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism to thoroughly implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference. The "white list" is an innovative and good policy, which is conducive to ensuring the delivery of housing and stabilizing the panic of the people. According to the data of the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration, up to now, commercial banks have approved more than 5,700 "whitelist" projects, with a financing amount of 1.43 trillion yuan, supporting the delivery of more than 4 million housing units on schedule.
The progress is huge, however, we must also see that compared with the huge reasonable demand for corporate funds and the number of guaranteed delivery of housing, the current efficiency of the implementation of the "white list" is still not fast enough, and it is necessary to take advantage of the momentum to open a new bureau and increase the implementation of the "white list".
For this key work, the core point at present is that all departments should be coordinated in the direction and pace of work, such as the local government can not put the obvious non-compliance with the "white list" of the project into it, the housing and construction department should coordinate as soon as possible as soon as possible to review, the financial sector approval speed, feedback mechanism to be fast.
Financial institutions are still very cautious in this regard, worrying that if there is a problem after the loan, whether they can really do their due diligence and exempt themselves from liability. The implementation of policies in this area urgently needs to be solved from a high level, and this matter should be solved in the most important position, so that the financial sector can travel lightly.
Focus on implementation
One point of deployment, nine points of implementation.
This sentence is familiar to everyone, but it is by no means a matter of "sandwiching raw rice", but it should be embodied in "loud and sound" in terms of intensity, "do it immediately" in terms of efficiency, and "satisfy the masses" in terms of effectiveness.
In the past two years, in promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize the work, because of some deviations in understanding, as well as the psychology of waiting, there are often some resolute and untimely breakthroughs in the implementation of the decision-making and deployment of real estate work, and the phenomenon of not reading the "good scriptures" in a timely manner will inevitably appear in the "timeliness".
Now, the central government's tone for the real estate market has been very clear, comprehensive and precise, the key is not only to understand thoroughly, but also to implement well, to ensure that the final effect is in line with the decision of the Party Central Committee.
We know that real estate, as a pillar industry of the economy, involves dozens of industries, and there are many things to be done to stop the decline and stabilize the work, but it can be summed up as housing, land, finance and taxation and financial work. This time, these important policies and systems will be systematically and timely fall on a "dry" word, all towards the direction of "see the right to do it, do more to do more" in the direction of a place, real estate has once again historically gathered a strong new force for development, all parties will work with certainty to face the uncertainty of the change of the situation. At present, the upward trend in the real estate market is the general trend of the industry, and it is by no means a simple technical adjustment. There is no doubt that under the vigorous adjustment and improvement of financial, fiscal and taxation and land policies, real estate will be able to win the battle of guaranteeing the delivery of housing as soon as possible, and the market will be able to stop falling and stabilize faster.
It should be emphasized that for the forward development of the real estate market, in the final analysis, it is necessary to firmly grasp the two principles of "people's nature" and "good or not", be good at grasping the general trend, grasp the initiative in work, fight the initiative of development, and resolutely implement a series of decisions and arrangements of the central government and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development. For real estate companies and housing consumers, this wave of "good" will be much more beneficial, and you can seriously make a strategy and plan it well.
Source丨China Real Estate News WeChat public account (copyright belongs to the original author, if there is any infringement, please contact to delete)