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Real estate occupies a relatively important position in the economic development of the mainland, and most families regard housing as the main part of property investment, which affects the individual's expectation of family wealth and spending power.
Housing prices once soared, but since 2021, the state has introduced a series of policies to restrict the blindly rising housing prices and the disorderly development of the real estate market, and the property market has gradually fallen into a downturn.
The recession of real estate has dragged down the development of the economy, and the decline of residents' desire to consume has made it difficult for most industries to operate.
Many young people do not marry or have children in the face of declining incomes and high housing prices, so as to get rid of the expenses of raising children, which makes the number of newborns in the mainland getting lower and lower, and the future population is worried.
Many people of insight in the society are aware of the current social and economic problems and call on the state to solve them, but how to choose between "protecting children" or "protecting the real estate market"?
1. High housing prices reduce young people's willingness to get married and have children
The main reason for the decline in the birth rate is nothing more than the irreconcilable contradiction between the increasing burden of living on ordinary families and the continuous decline in income, and the burden of housing prices accounts for a large proportion.
Housing prices are certainly down a lot compared to before 2021, but they are still beyond the financial means of most wage earners, and for young people who have not been working for long, housing prices are a hindrance to starting a family.
In traditional Chinese social concepts, one of the mandatory requirements for marriage is to "have a fixed residence", and having a house of their own is the most common and clear attitude of most "mothers-in-law" towards marriage.
Although many young people are in love with each other and once put marriage on their schedules, they are unable to meet the "bottom line" conditions of the "mother-in-law" and postpone it due to Gao Qi's housing prices.
People of marriageable age are basically people who have just graduated and started working for a few years, and their wages are low, and most of them are far from being able to afford the price of housing by relying solely on their own salary income.
Some families do not hesitate to empty their "six pockets" to buy a house and pay a down payment for their children's marriage, but the monthly mortgage is also a large amount, which greatly reduces the quality of life of young people.
Some young people who have bought a house have to cut back on food and clothing in order to cope with the mortgage, reduce unnecessary expenses in life, and make the originally sunny and happy life barely maintain and have no fun at all.
Even young people who are married have to delay their plans to conceive and have children because of concerns about the overstretched life, considering the greatly increased cost of education after having children.
And some young people, after seeing the "miserable" life of people who buy a house and get married, have a panic psychology about marriage, and are unwilling to get married, and would rather not get married than buy a house, let alone have children.
With the economic downturn, most companies have cut or are about to cut salaries and lay off employees, and many young people are panicking about the future, even if they can afford to buy a house, they are unwilling to take the risk of losing their income and not being able to pay their mortgages.
Second, the national policy to "protect children" to promote the property market
In addition to housing prices, such as bride price, pension, medical security, and education expenditures are also unfavorable factors affecting young people's willingness to get married.
The decline in the marriage rate is accompanied by a decline in the birth rate of newborns, which means that the future labor force and housing demand will decrease, which will have a great impact on social and economic development, especially the real estate market.
Faced with the real threat of China's "aging" society, many experts have called on the state to introduce corresponding policies to increase the willingness of young people to marry and have children, and the most vocal call is to reduce housing prices.
But in fact, the current real estate has entered a downward trend under the guidance of the national concept of "housing not speculation", and housing prices are unlikely to skyrocket, on the contrary, the development pressure of the property market is greater.
The impact of real estate on China's economic development is self-evident, after the real estate entered the cold winter, many developers thundered, and there were fewer and fewer new real estate development projects, and social and economic development was also greatly dragged down.
From the perspective of economic development, many experts believe that the current situation of the property market has led to a decrease in the income of young people and a loss of hope for the future, and suggests that certain policy measures should be adopted to make housing prices rise reasonably.
Whether it is "protecting the property market" or "protecting children" has become the focus of debate in society.
From an economic point of view, the two are not in conflict, they have their own influence on each other, and it is not a matter of choosing one or the other.
"Protecting children" can increase the birth rate of the population, which means that there will be more demand for housing in the future, which is a great benefit to the healthy development of real estate.
"Baobao real estate market" can eliminate the adverse impact of real estate in economic development, thereby increasing the income of young people and increasing the willingness to marry and have children.
3. "Housing is not speculation" to ensure that housing prices are stable
The state's "property insurance market" is not to let housing prices resume the skyrocketing trend, but to return housing prices to a reasonable range, avoid ups and downs affecting the normal development of the economy, and be in a relatively stable state.
The goal of the state is very clear, with a series of policy measures to eliminate the undue financial attributes of the house, and to restore it to its own residential attributes, focusing on functions.
Housing prices should be consistent with the level of economic development and household income, housing prices should not be too high, nor too low, only when housing prices are in a relatively stable range, it is most beneficial to society.
Excessively high housing prices will discourage young people from buying a house, make them discouraged from buying a house, and then reduce the marriage and fertility rate, which in turn will reduce the future market demand for real estate, forming a vicious circle.
Housing prices are too low or have been declining, which will affect the upstream and downstream of the real estate industry, which is not conducive to the social economy.
The stability of housing prices means that the real estate market has entered the channel of normal development, and it is also consistent with the pace of macroeconomic development, and will not affect the stability of the economy because of various emergencies in real estate.
The reasonable range of housing prices represents the real real estate market supply and demand relationship, so that young people can choose the most suitable house for themselves when buying a house.
The state has reduced the burden of housing for residents in various aspects, including lowering down payments and loan interest rates, and reducing the pressure on young people to repay their mortgages, so that young people can afford to buy houses and dare to join the army of home buyers.
Fifth, to ensure the demand for affordable housing and low-rent housing
The state does not want housing prices to fall too much, which means that there are still some young people who cannot afford to buy a house, and the housing needs of this part of the population can be solved by choosing affordable housing and low-rent housing.
Affordable housing and low-rent housing have always been the way for the state to solve the housing needs of low-income people in addition to commercial housing, and to meet the needs of some people by accelerating the construction of this way.
Affordable housing and low-rent housing solve the worries of young people, reduce the living burden of young people, and can effectively increase young people's willingness to get married, thereby increasing the fertility rate and realizing "child protection".
Sixth, change customs and simplify procedures to increase the marriage rate
If you want to "protect children", you need to first improve the willingness of young people to get married, most young people do not want to get married, but are frightened by all aspects involved in marriage, and do not want to trouble too much.
There are many traditional customs in the mainland in terms of marriage, and the bride price is one of the most influential aspects, and the bride price in many places is as high as 450,000 yuan, and the minimum is 120,000 yuan, and the pressure can be imagined.
Some families do not hesitate to borrow money or even take out loans in order to make up for the bride price, leaving the family in debt.
Many young people are saddled with huge debts as soon as they get married, and they have to go out to work, so how can they have children.
The local government is aware of the disadvantages of the bride price in marriage, and through social publicity and the formulation of policies, the phenomenon of excessive bride price is curbed, so that the bride price can return to a level acceptable to ordinary families.
Young people are very resistant to the cumbersomeness of traditional weddings, and they have to welcome their relatives before dawn, and a series of etiquette and customs from their mother's house to their mother-in-law's family are tossed down, not only physically and mentally exhausted, but also the cost of the whole wedding is very large.
Nowadays, many places advocate the simplification of weddings, and the overly formal parts are deleted and removed to prevent excessive disgust among young people, so that weddings become concise and clear, and remove burdens.
In addition, the state has simplified the necessary requirements for marriage, and in the latest draft, marriage registration does not require a household registration book, which greatly improves the right of young people to choose marriage independently.
epilogue
The low fertility rate of young people is not because they don't want to get married and don't want to have children, but because the pressure of the reality makes it impossible for young people to face the burden of life brought about by marriage and childbirth, so they can only give up the option of marriage.
High housing prices are a major factor influencing young people to get married, which in turn reduces the fertility rate.
The decline in population also has a great impact on the property market, so that real estate can not develop smoothly and fluctuate greatly.
"Bao Bao Bao Property" and "Bao Zi Bao" are not one or the other, the two can promote each other and rely on each other, but "Bao Bao Bao Lou Estate" is not to let the housing prices rise in a disorderly manner, but to ensure stable development.
The state uses "housing for living, not speculation" to keep housing prices in a relatively balanced relationship with economic development, control housing prices within a reasonable range, and reduce the burden of young people to buy houses by reducing down payments and loan interest rates.
At the same time, the construction of affordable housing and low-rent housing has solved the housing needs of some people who cannot afford to buy a house, so that young people can think about getting married and having children without distraction, so as to increase the fertility rate.
Excessively high bride prices, cumbersome weddings, and excessive marriage procedures have reduced young people's willingness to get married, and the state has reduced young people's resistance to marriage through changing customs and formulating policies.
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References:
"Protecting the property market" or "protecting childbirth"? The state has taken a real step and has already "shot" at housing
2022-11-20 16:00· Chen Pengzhen
"Protecting children" or "protecting the property market"? The state moves in earnest, "shooting" in the direction of the population
2024-10-15 09:51· Lingtai release