This article was first published on the official account of "Shan Ren Xing", subscribe to the official account of "Shan Ren Xing".
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On Thursday, the five central departments held a press conference together to introduce the policy of "four cancellations, four reductions, and two increases" in response to the "stop falling and stabilization" of real estate.
The four "cancellations" are: the cancellation of purchase restrictions, the cancellation of sales restrictions, the cancellation of price restrictions, and the cancellation of ordinary residential and non-ordinary residential standards.
The four "reductions" are: reducing the interest rate of housing provident fund loans, reducing the proportion of down payments, reducing the interest rate of existing loans, and reducing taxes and fees for selling old and buying new housing for housing.
Two increases: first, through monetized resettlement, an additional 1 million units of urban village renovation and dilapidated housing renovation will be implemented; The second is to increase the credit scale of whitelisted projects to 4 trillion yuan by the end of the year, and strive to include all qualified real estate projects in the whitelist.
However, the introduction of such a set of policy combinations did not get a positive response from the market, and in the A-share market, the real estate sector fell by 4.69%.
Will the real estate market and house prices recover next? Has the inflection point in the demand for home ownership arrived?
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First of all, let's listen to the views of Dr. Shan Ren, chairman of Shan Ren Niu Shang and commentator of CCTV Phoenix.
First of all, saying that the "four cancellations" is equivalent to a comprehensive loosening of the real estate ties, just like loosening the rope that binds the tiger.
Whether it is for buyers who just need or those who do not just need it, everyone may have a feeling that it has been the end, which will greatly stimulate the willingness to buy a house.
The "four reductions" are more focused on reducing costs for buyers, including the cost of capital for users who are about to buy and those who have already purchased the property.
It can be said that these policies are basically within the expectation of "stopping the decline and stabilizing", of course, the replacement method of the old reform and shed reform has changed.
This is also where many people pay attention, is it going to reproduce the fiery scene of the old reform and shed reform again?
In last year's document, in fact, the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated houses were also mentioned, but there was no mention of monetization, nor did it clarify the source of the money, that is, whether the demolition was given to the house or the money, which was not clear.
This time, the new real estate policy clearly adopts monetized shantytown reform, that is to say, this time it is not to replace the old with a house, but to take away the old and dilapidated and send money to buy a new house.
Starting with the implementation of 35 large and medium-sized cities across the country, if the effect is good, it can also increase by 1 million sets, and it is clear that there is no upper limit for bank support.
Since it is a monetary shantytown reform, the path is very simple, and the central bank prints special money to the CDB, and the CDB uses the money to lend to the local government, and the local government uses the money to buy the houses and land of the shantytown households, and the residents of the shantytown households take the money to buy new houses.
If you do the math, 35 large and medium-sized cities across the country will soon increase the number of housing transactions by 1 million to 2 million units.
However, in the past experience of shantytown reform, many shantytown reform households have received compensation money and saved it instead of buying a house, and the local government cannot achieve the purpose of destocking and promoting the stability or even rise of housing prices through monetary shantytown reform as in the past.
Therefore, in many cities, the currency shed has been changed to the house ticket shed.
The so-called house ticket is actually a voucher for buying a house.
If you demolish a shantytown or a house in an urban village, you will be given a voucher for buying a house, and in order to encourage the purchase of a house, families with vouchers can enjoy discounts or subsidies for buying a house.
All in all, this money can only flow to the property market, and the shantytowns have no cash in their hands, only vouchers, which cannot be exchanged for money, and can only buy houses.
So, what house will they buy? Will they still buy a house that they just need and the old and the small?
Of course not, they will definitely buy improved or even luxury homes, so the current policies mean that there is more room for imagination in improved housing and luxury housing transactions.
In addition, the shantytowns have bought houses to decorate, which is absolutely good for building materials, decoration and household appliances, including 100 to 2 million sets of shantytowns, which will bring the demand for basic building materials and buildings, as well as the demand for decoration, decoration and household appliances in the later stage, so it is not only real estate that is stimulated, but also related market increments.
In the past few years, the country's expectation for the real estate market is "housing for living, not speculation", and more emphasis is placed on the rigid demand and soft landing of housing in the real estate market, but due to the epidemic and the downturn in the market environment, housing prices and even housing sales have declined sharply.
At the same time, a large number of potential real estate supply has entered the market, and there has been a significant reversal of market supply and demand, which has exerted tremendous pressure on local debt and many industries and fields radiated by real estate.
Although there is a replacement of the second curve of new quality productivity, it cannot fully make up for the gap in the decline of the real estate market in a short period of time, and the foothold of the policy has changed from "housing not speculation" to "stop falling and stabilize".
I believe that this round of policy liberalization, as well as the results of stimulus, will allow real estate to begin to recover, housing prices cannot be said to be bound to rise, but price stability is basically certain, and at the same time for improved housing, and even the luxury housing market is an absolute positive.
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Next, the views of Mr. Song Zi, a senior investor and columnist of Shan Renxing.
Real estate, which accounts for 20% of GDP, is the largest sector in China's economic structure and was once the pillar industry of China's economy.
However, in the past two years, the economy has been in a period of adjustment, and the relevant authorities have been squeezing the bubble in the real estate sector, introducing "three red lines" in August 2020 to control the debt level of developers, and "two red lines" in January 2021 to limit bank loans related to real estate.
Under the red line, many real estate companies have a credit crisis, and the real estate business has also shrunk sharply this year, which can be said to have reached a low point.
Land finance, which has been criticized by economists in the past, is the main reason for pushing up real estate.
Over the past 40 years, land finance, as a major fiscal model, has provided important support for China's economic growth and urban development.
Without land finance, there would be no capital for China's development in the first 40 years, and foreign countries have always failed to understand the core of China's rise in the past 40 years.
In addition to reform and opening up, WTO accession, and labor dividends, there is also land finance.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's GDP increased by 4.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, and the difference between expectations and actual targets is still relatively large.
The launch of the real estate industry will inevitably drive the recovery of the upstream and downstream manufacturing industries.
However, you can't copy the old thinking that real estate investment was familiar with two decades ago.
Taking the original most valuable degree house as an example, Shenzhen has added hundreds of primary schools in the past two years, and the value of the degree house has shrunk significantly, according to my research, the decline has been 30~50%.
In addition, under the promotion of the fourth phase of the Golden Tax project, through a complete digital system, all the data related to various behaviors of individuals and institutions involved in tax payment are collected completely, and the real estate market still has a large inventory clearance period, so we should be cautious about the allocation of family assets.
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Editor-in-Charge | Luo Yingfan
The pictures are all from the Internet
This article does not constitute any investment advice, the stock market is risky, investment should be cautious
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