2021-10-20Sun Yan of Essence Securities Co., Ltd. conducted a study on YTO Express and released a research report "Market Share Growth, Single Ticket Profit Recovery", this report handed out a buy rating to YTO Express, believing that its target price is 20.38 yuan, the current stock price is 14.08 yuan, and the expected increase is 44.74%.
YTO Express(600233)
Event: YTO Express achieved revenue of 30.542 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2021, +30.41% year-on-year, net profit attributable to the mother of 954 million yuan, year-on-year -31.16%, net profit attributable to the mother after deduction of non-attributable net profit of 887 million yuan, year-on-year -26.77%; Q3 achieved revenue of 11.047 billion yuan, +24.98% year-on-year, net profit attributable to the mother of 308 million yuan, year-on-year -25.68%, net profit after deduction of non-attributable to the mother of 292 million yuan, year-on-year -6.85%, month-on-month +14.5%.
Q3 volume growth rate is higher than the industry, share increase; unit price is flat year-on-year, month-on-month improvement: 2021Q3 company completed express delivery business volume of 4.230 billion pieces, +25.71% year-on-year, leading the industry growth rate of 2.75pts, Q3 market share reached 15.45%, an increase of 0.34pts. 2021Q3 the company's express delivery products single ticket revenue of 2.15 yuan, basically flat year-on-year, up 5 points month-on-month, the price stabilized and recovered, of which the company's unit price in September +7.1% (up 0.15 yuan), the improvement is larger, mainly due to the courier dispatch fee increase to the terminal price increase, we expect that in the peak season effect and policy driven, short-term prices will still rise, the medium-term price center moved up.
Single-ticket other business revenue declined year-on-year, oil prices dragged down costs, gross profit margin decreased year-on-year, and improved month-on-month: Q3 company's single-ticket operating income was 2.61 yuan, -0.58% year-on-year (down 2 points), considering that single-ticket express revenue was basically flat year-on-year, then other business single-ticket revenue declined (freight forwarding, aviation and other businesses); Q3 single-ticket operating costs were 2.44 yuan, +0.72% year-on-year (up 2 points), Q3 cost pressure is larger, we analyze that the cost increase is mainly affected by the upward impact of oil prices during the year, The average price of 2021Q3 Diesel Zero was 6520 yuan / ton, +27.1% year-on-year. 2021Q3 Consolidated gross margin was 6.5%, down 1.2 percentage points year-over-year (costs were a significant drag year-on-year) and 0.5 percentage points sequentially (mainly due to higher price increases than costs).
Single-ticket cost control is good, single-ticket profit is basically bottomed, optimistic about the price increase trend under the single-ticket profit continued to improve: Q3 The company's fee control is good, and the single-ticket comprehensive cost is 0.07 yuan, -17.77% year-on-year (down 2 points), a slight increase from the previous month. Q3 single ticket deduction of non-net profit of 0.07 yuan, down 2 points year-on-year, up 1 point month-on-month, basically confirmed that the company's single ticket profit bottomed out, in the industry fee increase, strong policy constraints, the future with the price center moved up, single ticket profit is expected to further improve.
Investment advice: The short-term industry price bottom is determined, while the cost of express delivery companies is still room for improvement driven by the scale effect, and we expect the company's earnings to continue to improve in 2021Q4 and 2022. In the long run, the company will focus on core asset investment and service quality improvement, and the company's market share and profitability will continue to improve. Considering the increase in the company's share and price improvement, we have raised our profit forecast, and we expect the company's net profit attributable to the parent company for 2021-2023 to be 14.7/23.3/3.01 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to the current share price PE of 30/19/15 times, and raised to the "Buy-A" rating.
Risk Warning: The demand for e-commerce parts is less than expected, the price competition in the industry is less than expected, and the rigid costs such as oil prices, labor, and rent are rising.