Text | Xiao Tian
In November 2020, in the authoritative medical journal The Lancet, the team at Imperial College London published an exciting news:
Over the past 30 years, the Chinese has grown. The average height of 19-year-old men is 175.7cm, an increase of nearly 9cm, ranking 65th in the world, becoming one of the fastest growing groups in the world; the average height of Chinese women is 163.5cm, surpassing South Korea's 163.2cm, ranking third in the world in terms of growth, and East Asia ranks first.
Why did Chinese 'rub' height rise? The answer is given in the article "Multi-level Analysis of the Influence of Eating Behavior on Height in Chinese Children and Adolescents" - milk has a prominent impact on height growth in the early development of children and adolescents.
A cup of milk is strong Chinese, and behind a cup of milk, China's dairy industry has always been in turmoil.
Nowadays, milk products have become a common consumption habit of consumers who secretly conform to their physical memories. Under the huge consumer demand, the 600 billion yuan market has shown three major competitive patterns: Yili and Mengniu are firmly in the first echelon, Bright Dairy, Sanyuan Food and Hope Dairy are in the second echelon; and local dairy enterprises are in the third echelon.
At the same time, superimposed on the changes in new consumer trends, some cutting-edge brands such as Kashi, Jane Eyre, a yogurt cow, etc., are also trying to squeeze into the dairy industry to get a piece of the pie. Just recently, "adopt a cow" has been released on the market.
From the perspective of investment, the development of new consumer brands lies in the changing needs of the market as a support, which is also the basis for new domestic dairy enterprises to impact the capital market. But in the era of "duopoly leading and clan kings dividing", the prospects for these new dairy companies may not be broad.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="9" > dairy industry "cutting-edge" to create large items</h1>
In recent years, China has ushered in a new wave of consumption. The new generation of consumers, whether it is consumption ability, consumption behavior or consumption concepts, have undergone tremendous changes.
Take Gen Z, who were born between 1995 and 2009, for example: according to statistics, the population has reached 275 million, accounting for about 19% of the country's total population. With the development of the national economy and the growth of household income, the relatively superior environment has also created a more personalized and diversified consumption power of this generation.
Based on this background, a large number of new consumer products that meet the interests of Generation Z have emerged in terms of beverages, which is also the reason for the concentrated outbreak of new brands of San-And-a-Half, Yuanqi Forest, and Zhong Xue Gao.
In the dairy sector, these changes are also transmitted. According to the data of the "2021 China Milk Merchant Index Report", the milk merchant index of the middle-aged and young groups mainly composed of the post-80s and post-90s is relatively high, and the post-00s milk merchant index has grown rapidly in the past year. They are developing the habit of drinking milk every day, and they are shifting from "having milk to drink" to "drinking good milk".
Traditional dairy companies have keenly seized this opportunity and taken the opportunity to break through the situation, and cutting-edge enterprises have also taken advantage of the momentum to take their place.
Previously, Yuanqi Forest took the lead in detonating the concept of "zero sugar", rubbing the heat of the beverage industry, and after jane ai launched the zero-sugar yogurt series successfully, emerging brands such as Lechun and Kashi also followed suit.
This brings the most prominent feature of the new dairy brand - from the day of its birth, it has focused on high-end yogurt tracks.
There are two reasons for this. On the one hand, the yogurt market space is large enough, and the competition is far less fierce than the ambient milk market.
According to industry insiders' previous predictions, the dairy market space in 2020 is close to 600 billion yuan, of which room temperature white milk is 100 billion yuan, yogurt is 150 billion yuan, milk powder is 180 billion yuan, low temperature fresh milk is 40 billion yuan, cheese space is 9 billion yuan, and other products are 10 billion yuan.
On the other hand, compared with fresh milk and room temperature milk in liquid milk, yogurt has a relatively low entry threshold and is easy to create explosive products.
In general, fresh milk and room temperature milk have the same taste, and it is difficult to differentiate products. Yogurt has a difference in taste and flavor, and can quickly establish a product matrix based on explosive products.
Taking Kashi, a representative of high-end yogurt brands that has always been favored by high-quality women, as an example, it has carried out formula optimization and functional innovation on the basis of traditional yogurt products, further extending to the direction of "functionalization" and "snacking", setting off a revolution in high-end yogurt.
In just a few years, the brands and products of high-end low-temperature yogurt have rapidly taken off, and the yogurt once displayed on the low-temperature display cabinet has been transformed. Prices have also risen, and the price of a single cup has generally risen to 6.8-16.8 yuan, and the trend of high-end is becoming increasingly obvious.
According to Rees Consulting data, in 2019, high-end low-temperature milk yogurt contributed nearly 70% of total sales, and high-end yogurt became a dark horse. Jane Eyre Yogurt has achieved an average annual growth of 155% in the past five years, and its annual sales volume has reached 57 times that of when it first started.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="24" > "fancy marketing" is difficult to beat the giants</h1>
In China's current liquid milk market, more than 70% of the share is occupied by room temperature milk, and the market share of low-temperature fresh milk and low-temperature yogurt is only about 15%. Among them, Yili and Mengniu dominate room temperature milk, and local dairy companies divide low-temperature milk, which is difficult to shake overnight.
This brings up a problem - under the fierce competition of the industry, the entire dairy enterprises inevitably fall into homogenization and involution. From 5 months ago, the "pouring milk storm" caused by the popular variety show "Youth with You 3" can be spied on one or two.
In addition to room temperature milk, the lively "scenery" on the track of low temperature milk naturally attracts the giants to stop.
Public data show that the compound growth rates of low-temperature yogurt and low-temperature fresh milk in the past five years are CAGR 15.43% and CAGR9%, respectively, while the annual compound growth rate of the entire dairy industry in the past five years is 3.7%, and the growth rate of low-temperature milk exceeds the overall growth rate of the industry. In particular, the high-end yogurt track detonated by cutting-edge brands has also ushered in the influx of traditional dairy giants.
At present, Yili, Mengniu, Guangming, New Hope Dairy and other giants have entered the low-temperature yogurt track, which also focuses on functionality and leisure. Multiple brands have poured into the track, and while the new products of high-end low-temperature yogurt are dazzling, the situation of promotional volume and low profit increase is not uncommon, and the price war is also on the verge of breaking out.
According to the grassroots research data of Guojin Securities, low-temperature yogurt still adopts more promotional activities, including buy-free, multi-bottle purchase discounts, etc. Junlebao pure enjoyment, kefir promotion price maintained at about 6-7 folds, Yili Chang light promotion force of 5-7.5 folds, Mengniu Guanyi milk is mostly sold at 8-9 discount prices, Jane Love yogurt in Shanghai area promotion reached 6-7 folds.
In fact, compared with mature dairy brands, the premium ability of cutting-edge low-temperature yogurt brands is limited, and low-price promotion is difficult to bear for a long time.
It is worth mentioning that a single low-temperature yogurt brand is fiercely competitive in the market where stock and increment coexist, especially for cutting-edge dairy brands such as Jane Ai and Kashi, it is difficult to obtain a higher market share, on the one hand, it is difficult to passively bear the pressure of price reduction promotion, and on the other hand, it is difficult to stand out in the product with absolute advantages. New dairy companies are not unaware of this problem.
As early as the early stage of brand development, these new brands firmly grasped the key touchpoints of UP masters, KOLs and celebrity recognition of new products, and carried out marketing communication on video platforms such as Xiaohongshu, B Station, Weibo, and Douyin. Trying to cater to The Z Generation's "planting grass" preferences with the attitude of a new consumer brand.
Taking Jane Eyre as an example, the "net red brand" that was only born for 6 years used 0 sugar yogurt on Douyin to do scene education; did targeted crowd pack delivery on Weibo to reach the Kochi female group; and then invited Zhu Yawen to become the spokesperson for its 'Father's Love Formula' products and invited international supermodel Cuckoo to create high-end fashion yogurt products. A set of combination punches down, in 2020 Jane Eyre sales rose by more than 70%.
At the same time, on the channel side, with the help of the vigorous development of convenience stores and logistics express industry, these cutting-edge brands are laying out online while entering the high-end retail terminal scenes such as Hema, Rosen and FamilyMart, avoiding head-on competition with traditional giants such as Yili, Mengniu and Guangming. Previously, "adopt a cow" has declared that annual sales reach 2 billion yuan.
However, after the giants who do not lack funds, channels and brands enter the market, for a single low-temperature yogurt brand or product, if you want to achieve growth, you must either increase the selling price on the basis of the same sales volume, or enhance the competitiveness of the product on the basis of the same cost to seize the share of other brands. Obviously, for the new entrants, it is like a 60 kg boxer who has come to the 90 kg camp, and the situation is not optimistic.
The final result is that the dividend period of high-end low-temperature yogurt continues to narrow, and Kashi, Jane Ai, etc. urgently need to break through from the growth dilemma brought about by "single business risk".
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="38" > the possibility of a dark horse being killed is small</h1>
Nowadays, under the trend of consumption upgrading and health awareness, people have also put forward "fresh" demand for dairy products. Kantar's latest consumer survey data shows that the category penetration rate of low-temperature fresh milk increased by 7 percentage points in 2020, which is rare in the FMCG industry.
Compared with Canada, the United Kingdom, the United States, Japan and other countries, the market share of pasteurized low-temperature milk is more than 99%, and the growth potential is huge.
More critically, the policy support of "one pound of milk per day, strong Chinese" on room temperature milk has been staged again on low-temperature milk.
Li Dong, deputy secretary-general of the China Dairy Association, disclosed data on July 24 that the national "Student Drinking Milk Program" has implemented the pilot project of new categories of student milk such as low-temperature pasteurized milk and fermented milk on the basis of the current average daily supply of 21.3 million units of ambient liquid milk, and has entered the school with low-temperature pasteurized milk and fermented milk produced by 16 enterprises and 25 factories.
Under all kinds of favorable circumstances, low-temperature milk is becoming the next outlet for new brands to seize the growth dividend.
Objectively speaking, the production, milk source, logistics, channels and consumer groups of low-temperature fresh milk and low-temperature yogurt can be reused. The new brand of low-temperature dairy products, from yogurt to fresh milk, is indeed an attempt to achieve growth at a reduced cost and efficiency increase.
But the problem is that the low-temperature fresh milk market competes with the long-term competitiveness of milk source, market response efficiency, brand influence, market coverage and so on. In the current Red Sea competition in the low-temperature fresh milk market, the pressure on new brands will be even greater.
For example, Guangming Optimized Dairy Cow Breed launched Juanshan Fresh Milk, so that the raw milk itself contains more nutrients; Junlebao optimized the production process to launch INF (Ultra Instantaneous Immersion Sterilization) fresh milk, which expanded the category on top of pasteurized milk - INF milk, retaining active nutrition while retaining shelf life of up to 19 days.
On the other hand, the cutting-edge brands that have exploded in a short period of time cannot get rid of a common problem - the core competitiveness of products.
In a report in the Beijing News in July this year, Kashi and Jane Ai simultaneously launched their own fresh milk products, one declared that "not drinking Kashi fresh milk is equivalent to not drinking fresh milk", and the other declaring that "it lasted more than 300 days, killed 5 product managers, and only selected the most standard 75 ° C pasteurization process".
The former claims that the "Dutch purebred Holstein cow" has become the standard of most dairy farms in China, and the "high-end" dairy cow breed currently recognized in the industry is the Juanshan cattle originating from the English Channel; the latter claims that the "most standard 75 ° C pasteurization process" is not the top sterilization technology in the fresh milk industry. The sterilization temperature of Bright, New Hope, and ternary part pasteurized milk products has been reduced to 72 °C, and the process is higher.
Take the "Adopt a Cow" that has been rumored to be listed as an example: its "A2β Casein Pure Milk" product based on "A2 Type Cow" has actually tried as early as June 2017.
What cannot be ignored is that due to the high professional requirements of low-temperature milk in production, transportation, storage and other aspects, each regional leading brand occupies an unmatched penetration rate and shop rate in its respective base camps and surrounding markets.
The competition of Chinese dairy enterprises is essentially an all-round consideration of the comprehensive strength of milk sources, pastures, channels, brands and so on. For the new dairy enterprises that are rapidly rising in a certain segment, it is either through cross-border and grabs the most cutting-edge dividends in the segment. Once positioned to concentrate on dairying, this must be a long and arduous road.
The future of the dairy industry is undoubtedly bright, and the possibility of whether a new brand can once again kill a dark horse is shrinking.