According to the report of Russia and the Russian Satellite News Agency today, on the 26th local time, German President Steinmeier submitted a notice of the end of his term to Merkel at the resignation ceremony of the Merkel government. Merkel officially stepped down as chancellor and became a caretaker cabinet, and she will continue to perform her duties as chancellor until the next prime minister is appointed.
Although Merkel stepped down, in the 16 years in power in Germany, the "Iron Lady" left a lot of political legacy to Germany and even Europe. Nanfang Daily and Nanfang+ interviewed Du Weihua, a researcher at the German-speaking National Research Center of Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, to analyze the impact of Merkel's rule on Germany's development and Merkel's future role in German politics.
Governing: Detached from the political parties, Merkel became the symbol of Germany
Southern+: How has Merkel performed overall in Germany for 16 years? How has the style and direction of governance changed?
Du Weihua: Merkel has been in power for 16 years and has experienced major events such as the European debt crisis, the refugee crisis, the Syrian war, and the new crown epidemic. As the ruling party, Merkel's German Union Party has no obvious political stains, is exemplary in terms of climate protection, wage negotiations, foreign relations, and epidemic response, and coordinates the interests of most Germans as much as possible and takes care of the feelings of most Germans.
In her first term, Merkel lacked governing experience, was more rigid in policy, and adhered to these inherent "routines" such as value diplomacy. But by the time of her second term, Merkel had become more flexible and had embarked on a path of pragmatism and deliberative democracy. She is willing to negotiate and communicate with people, the policy is more wavering, and she is willing to compromise as long as it is beneficial to the government. She transcended her identity as the leader of the German Union Party and truly became a national spokesperson and a symbol of Germany.
Southern+: What do you think is why Merkel's Coalition party lost the election in this year's German election?
Du Weihua: Merkel did not find a good and suitable successor. Merkel is equally pragmatic in developing candidates, and she is relentless in her challenged successors. As a result, Merkel's successor in politics is in an awkward position. Former German Defense Minister von der Leyen, who is also a woman, currently serves as president of the European Commission, standing for Germany within EU institutions, largely away from German politics; Mertz, the chairman of the Union Party's parliamentary caucus, is ambitious, but his path to succession is blocked by Governor Laschette of North Rhine-Westphalia, who defeated Mertz with 521 votes at the CDU National Congress on January 16, with 466 votes Raschet, who carries the hopes of the Union party, fell behind the Social Democratic Party in the September 24 Bundestag election in the German Bundestag election on September 24, including the scandal. The Coalition lost the election in fact.
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Moreover, as just mentioned, Merkel was too good at the role of the national spokesperson, making it impossible to forget her identity as the leader of the German Union Party and to associate her exploits with the political party.
Of course, there are also some problems with governance. According to the analysis of German experts, the eastern federal states that originally supported Merkel believed that Merkel had not fulfilled her promise to let the east develop, so disappointed supporters turned to the Social Democratic Party, which emphasized social welfare more.
"Legacy": Advocate the EU to develop its relations with China independently
South+: What political legacy has Merkel left for Germany?
Du Weihua: The first is the recovery of the German economy. Before Merkel came to power in 2005, the fundamentals of the German economy were relatively normal, but many economic indicators were not very good, and the unemployment rate and economic growth rate were criticized by some British and American economic publications. Relying on the power of technology and exports, Germany has optimized its internal labor market with the help of the EU platform, thus achieving orderly growth of the German economy. In 2020, the EU officially launched the EU New Industrial Strategy under the joint initiative of Germany and France, and the development of German industry still has great prospects.
The second is the strategy of non-alignment diplomacy. Although Germany is a NATO country and has a US military presence at home, Merkel has the delicacy and caution of women, she is not a victim of US policy, and she criticizes the former president of the United States. At the same time, she also tried her best to avoid being labeled as "pro-Russian" and "pro-China". Her foreign policy is clear: to be an intermediary between East and West is to be a defender of order, not a leader. Together with france's allies, we will regulate relations between Central and Eastern European countries within the European Union and between China and Russia and the United States internationally.
In terms of relations with China, Merkel advocated that the EU should independently develop relations with China, and that China and the EU could strengthen dialogue and exchanges on issues where there are differences and differences between them. Merkel's diplomacy with China has adopted a pragmatic and rationalist policy. At the beginning of his rise to power in 2005, he gained domestic prestige for being tough on China, and then gradually pulled into Sino-German relations through deepening dialogue. After 16 years, China has become Germany's largest global trading partner for the fifth consecutive year. For many years, the trade volume between China and Germany has exceeded the total value of Sino-French, Sino-British and Sino-Italian trade.
In addition, the Acceptance of Refugees by the Merkel Government has also become an important factor affecting the future development of Germany. During the refugee crisis, Germany hosted nearly 5 million non-Christian refugees. As a country with a predominantly Christian population, Germany's fertility rate has been declining, with fewer than 10 newborns per 1,000 Germans in 2020. Germany's ageing problem is significant, with more than one in five people over the age of 65. After taking in a large number of non-Christian refugees and legal immigrants, Germany's demographic structure will change significantly, and Germany's large cities may be dominated by new immigrants, and there is now a typical Turkish ethnic concentration in Berlin.
The future: Merkel's influence depends on the outcome of the cabinet
South+: Today, Merkel is the caretaker cabinet, and there are still many unknowns about the formation of a new German government. How will she exert her influence in the cabinet negotiations?
Du Weihua: It depends on the structure of the new German government.
At present, the three parties of the Social Democratic Party, the Green Party and the Liberal Party in Germany want to form a "traffic light" alliance, but there are variables. For example, the Green Party, whose core is environmental protection policy, has very high requirements in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and accelerating the energy transition. If the SPD believes that the Greens' goals cannot be achieved and that the negotiations to form a cabinet are unsuccessful, it is likely that the SPD may need to seek the help of the Coalition Party to form a new SPD-led government with the participation of the Coalition Party. At that point, Merkel is likely to continue to exert her influence.
Conversely, if the "traffic light" is successfully formed and the Coalition party is completely excluded, it will be difficult for Merkel to continue her influence on the German government.
[Reporter] Peng Yifei Ling Xi
【Author】 Peng Yifei;
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Source: South+ - Create more value