Guojin Securities: Gives Gujing Tribute Liquor a buy rating

2021-11-01Liu Chenqian of Guojin Securities Co., Ltd. conducted a study on Gujing Gongjiu and released a research report "Slightly lower performance expectations, focusing on the landing of product structure optimization results", this report gives a buy rating to Gujing Gongjiu, and the current stock price is 229.39 yuan.

Gujing Tribute Wine (000596)

Performance summary

The company released the third quarterly report on October 29, 21Q1-3 achieved revenue of 10.102 billion yuan, +25.19% year-on-year; net profit attributable to the mother of 1.969 billion yuan, a year-on-year +28.05%; deduction of non-attributable net profit of 1.902 billion yuan, +26.69% year-on-year. Among them, 21Q3 achieved revenue of 3.095 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +21.37%; a net profit attributable to the mother of 590 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of +15.09%; a net profit of 563 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of +14.24%.

Business analysis

The income is basically in line with expectations, and the performance is guaranteed by the high increase in advance. 21Q3 company revenue increased by +21.4% year-on-year, basically in line with expectations; if contract liabilities + other current liabilities are considered, the actual revenue of 21Q3 company is +45.37% year-on-year; as of the end of 21Q3, the company's contract liabilities + other current liabilities are +224.61% year-on-year, and the high increase in advance receipts is the foundation for Q4 and next year's performance. In terms of cash flow, the company's 21Q3 sales received 3.843 billion yuan, +66.28% year-on-year, continuing the high growth trend.

Profitability was slightly lowered, and profit growth was slightly lower than expected. 21Q3 company's attributable net profit was +15.1% year-on-year, the growth rate was lower than that of the revenue side; 21Q3 net profit margin was 19.64%, year-on-year -0.99pct, and profitability declined slightly. 1) The gross profit margin of 21Q3 was 75.25%, year-on-year -0.27pct, and the product structure optimization effect still needs to be precipitated. 2) 21Q3 management expense ratio +2.29pct year-on-year. 3) 21Q3 sales expense ratio / business tax and surcharge ratio - 1.10pct / -1.16pct.

It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the optimization of the company's product structure. According to channel feedback, 21Q1-3 gu8 and above products achieved double-digit growth, accounting for a continuous increase in the proportion of the original pulp series of the year; of which the gu 20 achieved double growth, enjoyed the sub-high-end expansion dividend, and looked forward to the company's product structure optimization effect after the landing of the profit side of the boost efficiency. The company continues to cultivate deeply in the province, and began to expand outside the province with gu 16/gu 20 as the core, it is recommended to pay attention to the company's development process of the market outside the province.

Profit forecast

Combined with the third quarter performance, in view of the repeated impact of the epidemic on terminal demand, we have lowered our attributable net profit of 7%/6%/4% for 21-23 years, respectively. We expect revenue growth rate of 23%/22%/20% in 21-23 years, corresponding to revenue of 127/154/185 billion yuan, profit growth rate of 24%/26%/24%, corresponding profit of 23/29/36 billion yuan, EPS of 4.36/5.51/6.81 yuan, and the current stock price corresponding to PE of 52/41/33X, maintaining a "buy" rating.

Risk Warning

Repeated risks of epidemics, intensified risks in regional market competition, macroeconomic risks, and food safety issues.

A total of 29 institutions have given ratings in the last 90 days, with 25 buy ratings and 4 overweight ratings; the average target price of institutions in the past 90 days has been 255.91; the Securities Star Valuation Analysis Tool shows that The Good Company rating of Gujing Gongjiu (000596) is 4 stars, the good price rating is 2.5 stars, and the valuation comprehensive rating is 3.5 stars.