Gujing Tribute Wine (000596) third quarterly report comments: The income is stable in line with expectations, and the advance collection is high

In the first three quarters of 2021, the revenue was 10.102 billion yuan, +25.19% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the mother was 1.969 billion yuan, +28.05% year-on-year. 2021Q3 achieved revenue of 3.095 billion yuan, +21.37% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the mother of 590 million, +15.09% year-on-year.

Comments: 2021Q3 revenue growth steady, profit slightly lower than expected. The revenue of 2021Q3 is in line with expectations, and the main large single products continue to increase and continue to upgrade the structure. In the first three quarters of 2021, it is estimated that the series of products above the ancient 8 will account for 35%+, an increase of 60-70% year-on-year, of which the ancient 8 and the ancient 20 major single products continue to increase, and the trend of product structure upgrading continues. Gu20 has achieved double growth, and the annual order caliber is expected to exceed 2 billion yuan, enhancing the brand pull under the strategy of holding high. 2021Q3 ancient 8 and above continue to exert force, maintain rapid growth, ancient 8 major single products grow steadily, ancient 16, ancient 20 base low growth rate is faster, ancient 5 and gift single digit decline. Hefei market channel research feedback, the urban price of 200 yuan to 300 yuan price band upgrade, this year's banquet in the ancient 16 proportion and the number of sessions significantly increased. And the original company for the ancient 16 cost control is looser, now the company will recover the cost into the banquet channel, to promote the growth of the ancient 16 banquet channel. The decline in the single digits of gu 5 and gifts is mainly due to the lack of consumption scenarios of some gu 5 and gifts and gifts due to the epidemic situation during the Spring Festival this year, the relatively large market inventory before the end of last year, and the shrinkage of the 80 yuan price band affected by consumption upgrades. In the first three quarters, the Yellow Crane Tower is expected to complete 1 billion+ and is expected to complete the annual performance commitment. At the end of September, the company's dealer payment progress was 98%, and the payment after the National Day was basically completed.

Gross margin fluctuated slightly, and operating net cash flow and contract liabilities increased. The gross profit margin of the company in 2021Q3 was 75.25%, -0.27pct; the net profit margin was 19.64%, year-on-year -0.99pct. The expense ratio during the period was 35.32%, +1.62pct year-on-year, the cash collection of sales goods increased by 66.3% year-on-year, the operating net cash flow increased by 1448.43% year-on-year, the overall operating situation was good, and the higher contract liabilities guaranteeD Q4 increased.

Profit forecast: EpS is expected to be 4.51, 5.82 and 7.57 yuan for 2021-2023, corresponding to PE of 50X, 39X and 30X respectively, and continue to maintain the "buy" rating.

Risk Warning: Market expansion is less than expected; food safety issues; earnings forecast is less than expected.