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In-depth disclosure: Why does the fund earn blood and the basic people lose blood? Where did the money the fund earn went?
In 2020, the fund market is hot, public funds have made 2 trillion yuan, and more than 97% of the 5503 public funds in the country that have completed one year have made money, an average of 30%. According to media reports, the year-end bonus of a fund manager is expected to exceed 70 million, which is enough for ordinary workers to work for several lifetimes.
However, in the midst of joy, there are also many investors who just buy a lonely. A fund manager year-end bonus of 70 million, but the comment area is a mess, some people say that now this fund contains high calcium, a day down is equal to the past five days, affordable, and a breath fell for five days and did not rebound, after buying, the waist is not sore legs do not hurt, jumping off the building also has strength; there are people who are glad, bought 1w, now there are 8000 left, otherwise they have already spent it.
Some time ago, the Daily Economic News launched a vote, which found that of the 130,000 fund investors, more than 30,000 people lost money, close to 1/4.
Of course, it's not just last year, in the 10 years from 2007 to 2016, the average annual growth rate of equity funds was 9.6%, but the average annual yield of the base was only 4.9%, only half of the fund's returns.
The fund makes money, the basic people make less money or even lose money, what is the problem? Where did all the money the fund earn went?
The first thing to make clear is that the income of the fund ≠ the income of the basic people.
I bought the fund with real money, and the income of the fund is not my income?
Why is that?
The fund makes money and the basic people lose money, which is mainly summarized for 2 reasons, one is to chase the rise and kill the fall. Chasing up and killing down is cool for a while, but it is only a moment.
The enthusiasm of investors to buy funds is highly correlated with the market situation, the bull market, the enthusiasm of investors is high, running to enter, the market is full of explosive funds, to the bear market, the newly issued funds are not cared for, and less than 1 billion are raised in a month, and in the bull market, the fund often raises tens of billions of dollars in a single day, a day in the bull market, a year in the bear market.
However, investors buy in a bull market, often buy at the top of the mountain, and then embark on a long way back to their original journey. Even those with a bad mentality are likely to be tortured and cut meat to sell. For example, the net value of the fund was 1 when it was established, and after a year, the net value increased by 10 times to 10, and people rushed to buy, and the result was that after another year, the net value fell to 5, although it was still 4 times the profit compared to the beginning, but the investors who bought when the net value was 10 lost half.
Everyone knows reverse thinking, should also have heard Buffett said that others are greedy when I am afraid, but chasing up and killing down is human nature, investment itself is an anti-human thing, many times investment can not make money, not that you can not defeat the market, but can not defeat yourself.
Similar to chasing up and killing down, there are superstitious champion funds and hot funds.
When most people buy funds, they mainly look at the rankings, and the data of the Asset Management Association shows that 60% of investors pay the most attention to the performance of the fund when buying funds.
Past performance does not represent future performance, all funds will prompt investors with such a sentence, this sentence is really not a lie to everyone. Suppose you choose the 10 best performing funds for the year at the end of each year, and then buy and hold for a year, the final result will not be much worse than the overall performance of the equity fund.
As for the hot spot, when the hot spot becomes a hot spot, most of the relevant stock prices are already at a high level, follow the hot spot to buy the fund, and finally it is likely to buy at the top of the mountain, and then embark on a long way back to this road.
In fact, the fund that can really help investors make money does not need to rely on chasing, does not need to rely on robbery, for investors with less experience, do not chase up and down, do not chase hot spots, do not superstitious champions.
So what if you have bought a hot fund, or bought it at a high point?
The data shows that the longer the period of holding the fund, the greater the probability of obtaining positive returns, the probability of making money in equity funds holding for less than half a year is 60%, while the probability of making money for three years is 75%, and with the increase of holding time, almost 100% can make money. Therefore, even if investors enter the market in a bull market, as long as they can hold it for a long time, they will most likely be able to obtain a lot of returns.
But the problem is that individual investors often can't control their hands.
According to a survey by the Asset Management Association, only 52% of investors can hold a fund for more than a year. Less than 20% of those who are willing to hold a fund for more than 3 years.
Frequent changes of hands are likely to miss the rising market of the fund, and in the end, not only can not make any money, but also may explode in situ mentality, and another disadvantage of frequent operation is to pay a lot of fees.
The fee is tiered when selling a fund, and the longer you hold it, the lower the fee. Holding for less than 7 days, the rate is 1.5%, more than 7 days can be reduced to 0.5%, holding more than 2 years to sell the rate of 0.
Suppose the investor operates once a month, a fee of 0.5%, a year is 6% (accurately calculated as 5.84%), this is only the cost of selling, excluding the cost of buying the fund and the management fee charged by the fund, how high can the return be able to afford such a ho ho?
Behind the frequent trading, most investors have the confidence that they do not know where they come from. According to the Asset Management Association, 89% of investors feel that their level of financial knowledge is higher than or at least the average level of their peers, in other words, the average is a stock god, can not do.
Everyone feels like they can buy at lows, sell at highs, catch every wave of gains, and avoid every fall. To put it bluntly, it is greedy, but even if the fund manager who specializes in investment is difficult to make money by stepping on the point, where does the confidence of ordinary investors come from?
In the past 10 years, the increase in many funds is obviously higher than the increase in house prices, but many people buy houses to make money, buy funds but do not make money, the reason for this, a large part of the reason is that real estate transactions are troublesome, taxes and fees are high, buying a house has to hold for a period of time, and the fund wants to buy, want to sell, the result is passively held real estate, but it can help you make money more than the fund.
So if you want to buy a fund, but you are afraid of not being able to control your own hand, then you can consider choosing a fund with a lock-up period, that is, locking in for several months or even years can not be redeemed, forcing yourself to hold the fund, rather than chasing up and killing, frequently changing hands.
The growth of wealth cannot be achieved overnight, and every penny you earn is the realization of your understanding of the world.
bibliography:
1. Questionnaire Analysis Report on the Investment Situation of Individual Fund Investors (2018), Asset Management Association of China
2. Why do funds make money but not people? Wu Xianxing and others
3. Fund sales giant data revealed: the fund is very profitable, why the income of the basic people is greatly discounted, Zhu Yan
4. In 2020, the public offering made 2 trillion yuan, but many basic people said that they lost money, Li Lei
5. If the fund makes money but the basic people do not make money, what is the solution to the pain points of the public offering industry? Lu Haiqing
6. Immovable is also a kind of wisdom - Maxima Holding Period Fund Investment Advisory Portfolio, Tan Huaqing
7. The average return of public funds in 2020 is more than 30%, Yue Yue
8. Why do funds make money and the people don't make money? Yue Yue
9. Demystify the strange situation of "the fund makes money and the people do not make money", Qianhai Open Source Fund