Following general secretary Xi Jinping's "3060" goal, the National Development and Reform Commission has accelerated the construction of a dual-carbon "1+N" policy system, of which "1" is the general route and "N" is the eight major industries and fields. The "1+N" policy system provides top-level design and action deployment for the realization of the dual carbon target, and then all regions and industries across the country are studying the roadmap and implementation plan for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. The automobile industry is subordinate to the transportation field, and as a representative industry of manufacturing, it shoulders the major mission and great potential of low-carbon and green transformation.
China Automobile Center has always been an important think tank for government departments, and has assisted ministries and commissions such as the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the National Development and Reform Commission to carry out industry policy research for many years, providing a theoretical basis for policy formulation. Dr. Liu Bin, chief expert of China Automotive Technology and Research Center and deputy director of China Automotive Strategy and Policy Research Center, has directly participated in the development planning of new energy automobile industry, subsidy policies, exemption from vehicle purchase tax, automobile consumption promotion and other policy research work, and is currently entrusted by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to carry out the "Roadmap Research on the Implementation of the Automotive Industry for Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality".
Liu Bin
At the 8th Global Chinese Automotive Elite Joint Annual Conference and the "China Embraces the World" Automotive Industry Innovation Forum, Liu Bin shared the phased research results of the "Roadmap for the Implementation of the Automotive Industry Towards the Goal of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality", clarifying the direction for industry enterprises to cope with the double carbon test.
Direct Carbon Reduction Analysis: Car Ownership and Carbon Peak Time
At the meeting, Liu Bin shared four conclusions on carbon emissions from the perspective of direct carbon reduction analysis:
1
The number of fuel vehicles that owns them determines the direct carbon emissions of the car
How much carbon emissions do cars generate each year?
According to the classification of ipcc, carbon emissions are calculated according to direct emissions, that is, direct carbon emissions generated during the use of the car as a means of transport. Cars emit 2.37 kilograms of CO emissions per liter of gasoline burned, compared with an average fuel consumption of 6.31 liters per 100 kilometers last year. China has a total of 280 million vehicles, of which 240 million vehicles are passenger cars, about 0.5% of the 240 million passenger cars are taxis, the average annual mileage is equivalent to 7-8 private cars, preliminary calculations, passenger car carbon emissions are 400 million tons a year; another 300 million commercial vehicles, of which 88% are commercial trucks (including 43% of light trucks, 25% of heavy trucks, etc.), 12% are commercial buses (including bus buses, road transport buses, light vehicles and medium-sized cars), after calculations, Carbon emissions from commercial vehicles are about 600 million tons a year. When the two are combined, the total emissions of the car are around 1 billion tons a year.
According to the data of refined oil consumption tax, the carbon emissions caused by the combustion of refined oil by automobiles are 660 million tons, of which about 60% of carbon emissions are caused by commercial vehicles and about 40% by passenger cars. Although commercial vehicles are few, carbon emissions are relatively high.
In addition to the carbon emissions that now bring about by keeping cars running, China produces 25 million new cars a year, and producing a car produces about 550 kilograms of carbon emissions. The annual carbon emissions of 20 million passenger cars are 0.1 billion tons, and together with the carbon emissions of 5 million commercial vehicles, it is 0.15 billion tons. This data is only a calculation of the OEMs, not including parts companies.
As a result of the direct carbon emissions of automobiles, 90% comes from the use of cars and 10% from the manufacture and production of new cars. The first conclusion is drawn: the number of fuel vehicles that owns them determines the direct carbon emissions of the car.
2
The peak time of fuel vehicle ownership determines the peak time of carbon emissions
What exactly is the peak or inflection point of the car?
China now has 280 million cars, and the Ministry of Transport believes it will reach 350 million in the future. Is this really the case?
If most research institutions predict the number of cars per 1,000, the data in the United States is 800, Japan and Europe are 500, and China is 200. According to the calculation of 1,000 people, 330 vehicles is the peak of China, which is exactly one car per household, in this case, The peak number of cars in China's future reaches 480 million.
If calculated according to how many cars can be accommodated by China's road resources, with reference to the situation of matching vehicles in Tianjin's automotive road resources, according to China's 80% urbanization rate, the peak of high car ownership is 560 million.
In the case of these two ownerships, how will the carbon emissions of the car evolve in the future?
In each case of ownership, there is a difference between low policy, medium policy and strong policy. The low policy is implemented in accordance with the policy, the purchase tax exemption subsidy, which is a preferential treatment for new energy, which will end in 2022, and there will be no new support measures after that; the medium policy is that there will be some fiscal and tax incentives after 2023; the high policy is that there are more high-intensity measures to suppress fuel vehicles.
Analyzing 6 scenarios, we can see that the peak time of automobile carbon emissions coincides with the peak height of fuel vehicles, so another conclusion is drawn: the peak time of fuel vehicle ownership determines the peak time of carbon emissions, which is 2028-2031. After that, China's car ownership will continue to grow, but carbon emissions will decline, that is, China's car ownership growth will be decoupled from carbon emissions.
3
The number of new energy vehicles is higher than 15% or the carbon peak of China's automotive industry
What will characterize the peak or inflection point of the car?
At present, the number of cars in China is 280 million, and 98% of the 100 vehicles are fuel vehicles; by 2031, the number of vehicles is about 370 million, and only 85% are fuel vehicles.
In other words, when the ownership of fuel vehicles is reduced from 98% to 85%, the carbon emissions of automobiles reach a peak. Conversely, when the penetration rate of new energy vehicles increases from 2% to 15%, the carbon emissions of automobiles peak. Therefore, the inflection point will come when the ownership of fuel vehicles is less than 85% and the ownership of new energy vehicles is higher than 15%.
4
China should continue to adhere to the strategy of pure electric drive while taking into account the development of energy-saving vehicles
How to accelerate the advance?
China does not naturally climb the peak, but artificially suppresses the peak. To this end, artificial peaking must do two things for cars: one is to control the total number of fuel vehicles, and the other is to adjust the structure, that is, to improve the penetration rate of new energy vehicles. To this end, China should continue to adhere to the pure electric drive strategy, vigorously promote new energy vehicles, and take into account the development of energy-saving vehicles.
Deep Carbon Reduction Analysis: Are Pure Electric Vehicles Really Low Carbon?
In addition to the direct carbon reduction analysis, Liu Bin also conducted a deep carbon reduction analysis and came up with five conclusions and recommendations:
BEV is the most important technology to reduce carbon emissions during the driving phase
Not long ago, Academician Liu Ke (a foreign academician of the Australian National Academy of Engineering and dean of the School of Innovation and Entrepreneurship of southern university of science and technology) pointed out in the "carbon neutrality misunderstanding and its realistic path" that the sixth misunderstanding is that electric vehicles can reduce carbon emissions, but it should be noted that if the energy structure does not change, 67% of the power grid is still coal power, then electric vehicles are increasing carbon emissions, not reducing carbon emissions. Electric vehicles can only be considered clean energy when the energy structure and the majority of the power grid are composed of renewable energy.
So in the case of thermal power, pure electric vehicles, not low carbon?
In the current case of 74% thermal power and 26% power cleaning, for pure electric vehicles, each kilowatt-hour of electricity will produce 0.61 kg of CO emissions, and in 2020, China will sell 1 million pure electric passenger cars, with 12.4 degrees of electricity consumption per 100 kilometers and CO 0.76 tons of CO for 10,000 kilometers. Its driving stage CO emissions are 0 tons, upstream CO emissions are 0.76 tons, and its total carbon emissions are 0.76 tons; while fuel vehicles, upstream refining and other links will have 0.2 tons of CO emissions a year, the driving stage is 1.5 tons, and the annual fuel CO emissions are 1.7 tons.
Therefore, pure electric vehicles can reduce CO emissions by 0.94 tons per year compared with fuel vehicles. A car that has been driving for 15 years can reduce carbon emissions by 14.1 tons. That is to say, compared with pure electric vehicles, considering the fuel cycle, the carbon reduction effect is 14.1 tons.
Then, in the case of 100% clean electricity, a pure electric vehicle will reduce all the 22.5 tons of CO emissions of fuel vehicles driven for 15 years, achieving carbon neutrality of the fuel cycle. Then it is necessary to develop more clean electricity such as wind power and photovoltaics.
BEV is the most important technical route for low-carbon development PHEV and HEV also have a good carbon reduction effect
From the perspective of the whole life cycle of electric vehicles, manufacturing batteries also has a certain carbon emission.
According to CHINAC data, when producing power batteries for vehicles, there will be 95 kilograms of CO emissions at one time, of which about 15 kilograms will be generated by manufacturers such as Ningde Times, and 80 kilograms will be emitted by upstream in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and other places. Last year, the average charge of 1 million pure electric passenger cars was 46 kWh, so the vehicle power battery of a pure electric passenger car will increase CO emissions by 4.4 tons. Therefore, compared with a pure electric vehicle and a fuel vehicle, the carbon reduction effect is reduced to 9.7 tons after a full life cycle of 15 years.
The previous analysis of the two types of models has made it more scientific to evaluate the carbon emissions of the whole life cycle of vehicles of the same size. Compared with toyota corolla's gasoline version, HEV version, PHEV version and BYD Qin EV, 4 vehicles drive 150,000 kilometers in 15 years, considering the fuel cycle and vehicle cycle, the average driving of one kilometer, the Corolla gasoline version will produce CO emissions of 176 grams, Qin EV will produce 118 grams, and the reduction effect is 33%. It can be seen that at present and in the future, pure electric is the most important technical route.
In addition, although the carbon reduction effect of pure electric is 33%, the carbon reduction effect of HEV and PHEV is 23% and 25% respectively, which still has a good effect. So why do some local governments ban burning? This is untenable.
Miniaturization can significantly reduce carbon emissions throughout the life cycle Only the change of UF can achieve at least 10% carbon reduction
Wuling Hongguang MINIEV cuts a lot of CO emissions, because the model is smaller, uses less materials, and the battery is smaller, and its carbon reduction effect compared to Qin EV is 60%. In other words, miniaturization can significantly reduce carbon emissions throughout the life cycle.
For the same PHEV, it is necessary to pay attention to the UF value, the UF value (the proportion of pure electric mileage to the total mileage) is generally 0.54, that is, driving one kilometer, of which 0.54 kilometers are driven by electricity. If you slightly increase the pure electric mileage of a PHEV, such as when the UF is equal to 0.9, its carbon reduction effect is 11%.
Hydrogen production is not clean, and it is difficult to achieve low carbon in the whole life cycle of FCEV
Comparing SUV with different power types, it will be found that because the current hydrogen production is not clean, the SUV of hydrogen fuel cells has about 20% higher carbon emissions than that of hybrid SUVs in the whole life cycle. But if hydrogen is all clean in the future and all use green electricity to produce hydrogen, the carbon emissions of fuel cell vehicles can be quickly reduced to 63.1 grams.
5
To identify the key links in the carbon emissions of different types of vehicles, pay attention to the deep carbon reduction paths of different types of vehicles
Identify key aspects of carbon emissions from different types of vehicles. For fuel cells, the biggest carbon emissions are hydrogen production; for pure electric vehicles, the biggest carbon emissions are batteries; for fuel vehicles and hybrid vehicles, the biggest carbon emissions are the driving stage.
Therefore, for different vehicles, different carbon reduction paths should be taken. Focus on energy efficiency improvement for fuel vehicles and hybrid vehicles, increase the power consumption rate of PHEV, clean hydrogen production for FCEVs, and grasp battery production for BEV.
A technology roadmap for the automotive industry to 2060 is being developed
According to Liu Bin, at present, the CHINA Automobile Center is building a technology roadmap for the automotive industry for 2060, and will finally output six roadmaps on products, ownership, energy, transportation, infrastructure and industry. He shared China's automobile carbon emissions and low-carbon product structure development plan, and put forward suggestions for the government, industry and industry.
China's current 98% are fuel vehicles, if you continue to use fossil energy, we must improve its energy efficiency, popularize more HEVs, for example, by 2035, half of them are HEVs. If you add a plug to the HEV, and then add a little battery capacity, it becomes a PHEV, so that electricity can also be burned to drive, if more electricity can reduce carbon emissions. If the internal combustion engine is removed, the battery is increased, and the power is switched to an electric drive, it becomes a BEV. If you shrink the BEV's battery and add a fuel cell stack, it's FCEVs. BEV and FCEV are two types of cars, carbon emissions are zero, and HEV energy-saving cars are the technical route of car carbon peaking.
In order to achieve carbon neutrality, energy use should be guaranteed, and by 2030, if it is popularized to 10 million pure electric vehicles, charging piles must be built, fuel cells must be low-carbon energy, and battery production must be carbon reduced and recycled.
In the long run, China's automotive carbon emissions and low-carbon product structure development plan is probably: by 2030 or so, the carbon emissions of automobiles will peak; from 2035, NEV will become the mainstream in new car sales, accounting for 50%; from 2040, NEV will become the mainstream in the ownership of cars. In this case, it is necessary to implement some related paths in stages: from 2021, NEV and fuel vehicle energy-saving two-wheel drive will reach the peak early; from 2030, accelerate the replacement of excellent stocks; from 2035, run to zero carbon control total, at this time, we must pay attention to energy system reconstruction, intelligent transportation and green travel, and green production and recycling.
At the government level, it is necessary to pay attention to the low-carbon development strategy, increase the penetration rate of NEV, tighten the energy consumption (carbon emissions) of fuel vehicles, provide clean vehicle energy guarantee, guide green and low-carbon travel, improve the recycling system, encourage green production design, and ensure policy guidance.
At the industry level, one should reduce costs, especially battery costs; second, we must develop low-carbon products and apply low-carbon technologies, including energy consumption, NEV, lightweight, and new materials; third, we must pay attention to infrastructure construction such as charging.
At the industrial level, one should study the low-carbon (zero-carbon) development strategy, path, and policy; second, we should study the technical route of the product, clarify the list of deep carbon reduction under different technical routes such as new energy, hybrid vehicles, fuel vehicles, etc., and conduct in-depth discussions on whether FCEVs are low-carbon; third, we must study the comparison of carbon reduction costs and benefits, how to combine direct carbon reduction with deep carbon reduction; fourth, we must study charging facilities and layout; fifth, we must study the total amount and structure of vehicle energy; sixth, we must study low-carbon industry and low-carbon supply chain. It is even necessary to study the sample path of corporate carbon neutrality.
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