Reporter | Yuan Yiming
Edit | Xie Xin
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As of December 21, at least 89 countries and regions around the world have reported confirmed cases of the new crown variant strain, Semikron, and this is only a month since The first time Aomi kerong was reported, so fast spread, has Aomi Kerong replaced Delta as the main global epidemic of the new crown virus?
A number of virology and infectious disease experts told the interface news reporter that at this stage, Aomi Kerong has not yet replaced Delta's "main epidemic virus" status, but the spread speed of Aomi Kerong is very fast, and it can be basically determined that it will become the main epidemic virus in the future.
"At present, the transmission rate of the Omilon virus strain is fast, but the number of cases in various places is not large, and the distribution is not widespread, so it is not yet possible to talk about 'the Omilon virus strain is the main epidemic virus'. Jiang Qingwu, a professor of public health at Fudan University, told Interface News.
As for under what circumstances Aomi Kerong can be designated as the "main epidemic strain", virology expert Chang Rongshan believes that when the number of positive infected people in Omilon detected by sequencing or PCR nucleic acid tests worldwide accounts for more than half of the number detected, it can basically be judged that it has become the main epidemic strain.
According to the data website "our world in data" founded by the Oxford University team in the United Kingdom, as of December 13, except for South Africa (98.16%), Botswana (47.79%), Norway (25.5%) and other countries, the sequencing confirmed Cases of Omi kerong in other countries did not exceed 10% of the total number of new crown cases in various countries, while the Delta cases accounted for up to 98% of the total number of new crown cases in many countries, including Germany, the United Kingdom, the United States, France, India and other countries.
The number of cases in Omikerong confirmed by sequencing accounted for the proportion of total COVID-19 cases in Germany, the United Kingdom and other countries. The image comes from the official website of "our world in data"
The proportion of Delta cases confirmed by sequencing accounts for the proportion of total COVID-19 cases in Germany, the United Kingdom and other countries. The image comes from the official website of "our world in data"
Map of the distribution of Cases in Aumechjong worldwide. The image comes from the official website of "our world in data"
Map of the distribution of Delta cases worldwide. The image comes from the official website of "our world in data"
The Department of Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases at the Institut Pasteur in France said that Omilkeron may bring more uncertainties, but until January and February 2022, the expected impact on the global outbreak will still come mainly from Delta.
However, many experts have said that in the future, Omi kerong is likely to become the main epidemic virus of the new crown.
Jiang Qingwu believes that the main reason that can be judged in this way is that the Aomi Kerong virus strain spreads from South Africa, and the speed of transmission is faster, which is more suitable for the phenomenon of spreading in the population.
Specifically, Omilon is more likely to spread in areas with weaker prevention and control measures, and there has been a phenomenon of transmission along the means of transport. Although Aomi Kerong was transmitted from Africa, some countries and regions have adopted strict prevention and control measures, the main purpose of which is to delay the entry of Aomi Kerong into their own countries or regions. However, in some countries and regions that have relaxed prevention and control measures or places where prevention and control measures are weaker, the spread and spread of Aumi Kerong is faster.
Data released by the UK Health Security Agency on December 16 also confirmed this. It says that the R value of the infection number in the UK has risen to between 3 and 5, that is, the average number of infections per infected person is 3 to 5 people, while the country's current Delta infection number R value is between 1.1 and 1.2.
For Aomi Kerong to become the main epidemic strain, Chang Rongshan gave a time prediction: two months later.
He explained that from the time when Delta became the main epidemic strain, Delta was found in India to account for more than 80% of the northern hemisphere, and then identified as the main epidemic virus, a total of about four months, so it can be roughly estimated how quickly Omilon became the main epidemic strain.
But multiple experts say there is no need to panic about the possibility that Aumicron may be identified as a "major epidemic" in the future. Jiang Qingwu told interface news reporters that the World Health Organization and governments have given Aumi Kerong a high degree of attention, because of the fear that it will cause greater harm to the health of the population, but the areas infected with Theomilon have not been found to have a higher number of deaths.
"For example, the number of cases in South Africa, where The Opmi kerong was first reported, has reached an all-time high, but the number of confirmed cases of Illness in Aumi kerong in South Africa is the lowest level in the country in two years since the covid-19 epidemic in nearly a month. In many countries and regions where the new crown epidemic is endemic in Aumicron, the incidence level has increased in the past month, but the number of disease deaths in their populations has been basically the same as that of the previous period in the past month. Jiang Qingwu said.
In addition, Jiang Qingwu told the interface news reporter that the new crown virus is an RNA virus, and its mutation is an inevitable phenomenon and trend, and within a certain period of time after transmission, the virus will form a new epidemic strain. Chang Rongshan further explained that when the environment changes, species with DNA as genetic material, in order to adapt to the living environment, must leave those genetic mutations (genetic mutations) that can make them better adapt to the new environment through natural selection (genetic mutations are random), which is "adaptive mutations".
When the RNA virus "spills" to the intermediate host other than the natural host, as the number of new hosts infected increases, random mutations also increase, in order to better adapt to the human body, those mutations with evolutionary advantages are left after screening, and many new mutations "converge" into a strain, becoming a new variant strain, and these new variants have better "human adaptability".
"In general, the cross-species evolution of the virus does not necessarily lead to an increase in pathogenicity; nor does the increased infectivity of the new coronavirus variant necessarily lead to an increase or decrease in pathogenicity." Chang Rongshan told Interface News that epidemiological retrospective studies that have not been large enough in the past month have found that The immune escape ability of Omi Kerong exceeds that of Delta, "If you want to explain, it is that the human body adaptability of Omi Kerong is better than various variant strains in the past," he said.