Core Introduction:
1) Under the background of "double carbon", the popularity of hydrogen energy has gradually risen, and major OEMs at home and abroad have successively laid out hydrogen energy tracks. Foreign hydrogen fuel cells are mainly developed by main engine plants, and domestic main engine factories rely on stack and system manufacturers; due to the earlier foreign research time and the technology has undergone many iterations, the maturity of foreign hydrogen energy heavy trucks is higher than that of domestic hydrogen energy heavy trucks, but the industrialization process is not much different;
2) From the cost point of view, the TCO cost of hydrogen energy heavy trucks will be lower than that of fuel heavy trucks in the future, and breakthroughs in technology will contribute to the reduction of hydrogen energy heavy trucks;
3) With the promotion of policies and the increase of application scenarios, hydrogen energy heavy trucks will usher in a period of golden development opportunities.
Source | Yunlian Think Tank (ID: tucmedia), author | Meiyan Shi, Editor, | Small L
In recent years, although pure electric vehicles have developed rapidly, due to their short mileage, low load and the influence of low temperature environment, the effect of promotion and application is not significant in the field of heavy trucks with "large load, long endurance and high efficiency requirements". Hydrogen fuel cells can meet the needs of heavy truck application scenarios due to their advantages of high energy density, short hydrogenation time, and zero pollution. Therefore, the future of hydrogen fuel cell heavy trucks is the most likely to replace the new energy models of fuel heavy trucks, and thus become the preferred model of large logistics companies.
1. Under the background of "double carbon", hydrogen energy heavy trucks have become the key direction of major OEMs
Hydrogen is a clean, efficient, safe and sustainable secondary energy source. For the transportation field with increasingly stringent emission requirements, hydrogen energy has become a new energy track for major OEMs to compete for layout.
1.1 The main engine factory has successively laid out to seize the hydrogen energy track
At present, hydrogen energy is known as the "green gold" of the 21st century. For the increasingly stringent emission requirements of the automobile transportation market, hydrogen energy has become a track for various OEMs to compete for layout.
Looking at the entire commercial vehicle market, the mainstream OEMs in China are basically involved in the layout of hydrogen energy heavy trucks. Under the support of strategic planning and agreements, these OEMs have formed preliminary delivery and operation, such as Dongfeng, Sinotruk, Shaanxi Automobile, SAIC Hongyan, Dayun Automobile, Beiben Heavy Duty Truck, Jiangling Heavy Duty Truck, etc.
1.2 The degree of marketization of hydrogen energy heavy trucks in fixed scenarios is deepened
In November this year, SAIC Hongyan's first batch of hydrogen energy heavy trucks were put into operation in Ordos, mainly for the transportation of open-pit coal mines in Ordos City, while SAIC Hongyan invested 2 billion yuan in Ordos to build the world's first hydrogen energy industry chain.
Previously, hydrogen fuel vehicles were basically based on urban buses, and the final payers were almost all local governments. However, from the perspective of hydrogen energy heavy trucks currently put into operation in the market, hydrogen energy heavy trucks are gradually popular in mining, ports, docks, steel plants and other scenarios.
Although the hydrogen energy heavy trucks put into operation in the market, their application scenarios are similar to those of pure electric heavy trucks, they are relatively closed, and on the whole, they are still mainly short-distance; however, the final payers have gradually changed from government departments to coal mines, steel and other enterprises. This is an important signal that hydrogen energy heavy trucks are gradually marketing in the field of vehicles, indicating that hydrogen energy heavy trucks have gradually triggered private domestic demand. At present, hydrogen energy heavy trucks are operating in more special scenarios, but now the acceptance of large logistics enterprises is very high, which further lays the foundation for the deepening of the marketization of hydrogen energy heavy trucks.
1.3 Foreign main engine factories to promote the process of hydrogen energy heavy truck industry, the domestic main stack and system manufacturers
1) Foreign: The main engine factory independently develops hydrogen fuel cell heavy trucks
Toyota and Hyundai were among the first car companies to study hydrogen fuel cell heavy trucks. Toyota has established a leading advantage in hydrogen-fueled passenger cars, but the process of industrialization is relatively slow. At present, Toyota is constantly increasing the number of hydrogen fuel heavy trucks, the market has gradually expanded from North America to Asia, and has cooperated with a number of companies, but so far Toyota's hydrogen fuel heavy trucks have not actually delivered to users.
Hyundai's research on hydrogen fuel cells is slightly earlier than Toyota's, but it is later than Toyota in the release of hydrogen fuel cell heavy trucks, but Hyundai already has hydrogen fuel cell heavy trucks that have actually been delivered for operation.
Looking at the players of hydrogen energy heavy trucks in the entire foreign market, they are basically mainly automakers, and in the entire hydrogen energy industry chain, they also rely on vehicle companies to promote their development process.
2) Domestic: The fuel cells of the main engine factory mainly rely on stack and system manufacturers
Looking at the participants in the entire domestic market, in addition to a few OEMs such as SAIC and Weichai, which are driven by the development of the fuel cell vehicle industry, the others are more fuel cell stack and system manufacturers. When led by stack and system manufacturers, the application and industrialization of hydrogen energy heavy trucks are promoted together in the form of "main engine plant + fuel cell stack and system enterprises".
Since the domestic hydrogen energy policy has only landed in recent years, and some equipment and raw materials for the development of hydrogen energy need to be purchased from abroad, the cost of independent research and development of the main engine factory is high, so the main engine factory basically takes the form of cooperation with stack and system manufacturers to promote the development of the hydrogen energy industry.
3) Foreign technology is higher than domestic, and the industrialization process is not much different
From the perspective of industrial technology, Toyota fuel cell heavy trucks have undergone three technical iterations, and the products are relatively mature, but the industrialization is slow. Hyundai delivered the first batch of hydrogen heavy-duty truck XCIENT Fuel Cells in July last year, equipped with a 190 kW hydrogen fuel cell system, which is currently the highest power hydrogen fuel cell system in the market. However, the current domestic hydrogen fuel cell system power is not more than 100kW, and there is still a long way to go for future technological breakthroughs.
Judging from the situation of product delivery, Jiangling Hydrogen Fuel Heavy Truck is the first vehicle enterprise at home and abroad to actually deliver and operate, and the delivery time is earlier than Hyundai.
From the overall point of view, the entire hydrogen fuel heavy truck market, domestic and foreign is basically in the same starting line.
2. From the economic point of view, the cost of hydrogen energy heavy trucks will be lower than that of fuel heavy trucks
2.1 The cost reduction space is vast, and the cost of TCO in the future can be lower than that of fuel heavy trucks
Although hydrogen energy is very hot under the impetus of policies and the international situation, due to the insufficient development of the technical level and industrial chain, the cost of hydrogen energy heavy trucks hinders the process of "diesel to hydrogen".
At present, due to the small scale of the global hydrogen energy industry and the relatively high fixed cost, it is impossible to use the scale to reduce costs, resulting in the purchase cost of hydrogen energy heavy trucks being much higher than that of pure electric heavy trucks and diesel heavy trucks. Judging from the hydrogen energy heavy trucks previously delivered for operation by Dayun, the price of 60 vehicles is 95.76 million yuan, which is equivalent to the price of 1.596 million yuan per hydrogen energy heavy truck. Compared with ordinary fuel heavy trucks, the purchase cost of a single hydrogen energy heavy truck is 3-4 times higher.
We select three types of hydrogen fuel heavy trucks with the same function and similar configuration, pure electric heavy trucks (heavy trucks for replacement) and fuel heavy trucks for TCO calculation (assuming that the transportation scenario, insurance costs and labor costs are the same).
According to the TCO split calculation of the three institutes by the Institute of Transportation And Transportation, the TCO cost per 100 kilometers of pure hydrogen fuel heavy trucks is about 998.8 yuan, the TCO cost of pure electric heavy trucks per 100 kilometers is about 570.6 yuan, and the TCO cost of fuel heavy trucks per 100 kilometers is about 671.5 yuan.
From the perspective of the cost of the entire TCO, the purchase cost and fuel cost of fuel cell heavy trucks account for a relatively high proportion, with the purchase cost reaching 22% and the fuel cost reaching 40%. Compared with pure electricity and fuel heavy trucks, the cost of hydrogen fuel heavy truck TCO does not occupy an advantage. However, according to the current market situation, it is estimated that the purchase cost of fuel cell heavy trucks can be reduced by 50% in 2030, which means that the purchase cost in TCO can be reduced to 109.5 yuan / 100 kilometers.
From the perspective of fuel, relying on renewable energy to generate electricity in 2030 can reduce the cost of hydrogen production, coupled with relying on large-scale cost reduction, it is estimated that the price of hydrogen can eventually drop to 18 yuan / kg. In this way, the TCO cost of hydrogen fuel heavy trucks can be reduced to 669.3 yuan, which is lower than that of fuel heavy trucks.
2.2 Breakthroughs at the technical level will become the premise of reducing the cost of hydrogen energy heavy trucks
The maturity of the technology is closely related to the acquisition cost and operating cost of hydrogen energy heavy trucks. The maturity of technology will contribute to the reduction of hydrogen energy heavy trucks.
From the perspective of acquisition cost, the core components of fuel cells occupy the largest part of the purchase cost. At present, the core components of fuel cells, such as proton exchange membranes, bipolar plates and plating processes, membrane electrode preparation processes and other technologies have an obvious trend of localization, and after reaching mass production in the future, the purchase cost reduction effect is significant.
From the perspective of operating costs, the price of hydrogen is crucial for the promotion and application of hydrogen energy heavy trucks in the future. At present, due to the low technical maturity of the relevant links of production, storage and hydrogenation, the price of hydrogen is high. From the perspective of hydrogen production, in the future, relying on renewable energy power generation to reduce the cost of electricity for electrolysis of water to hydrogen production, the cost of hydrogen production will be reduced; from the perspective of storage and transportation, relying on liquid transportation can improve the supply capacity of the single station of the hydrogen refueling station, the efficiency of storage and transportation will be improved, and the cost of storage and transportation will be reduced; from the perspective of hydrogenation, the localization of filling equipment and storage equipment will reduce operating costs and maintenance costs. After the cost of each link of hydrogen is reduced, the price of hydrogen energy heavy trucks will decrease.
3, from different perspectives, the future hydrogen energy is the "official match" of heavy trucks
3.1 From the perspective of policies and regulations: guide the improvement of the day and promote the benign development of the hydrogen energy industry
Under the goal of "double carbon", green transformation is the trend of the times, and new energy has become a popular track. The rapid development and upgrading of the hydrogen energy industry is inseparable from the guidance and support of policies.
In 2021, the hydrogen energy industry was written into the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the "2035 Long-term Goal Outline", becoming one of the six major future industries. In the field of transportation, hydrogen fuel cells, as an important carrier for the landing of the hydrogen energy industry, have also taken advantage of this to catch the east wind of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and usher in the next new energy outlet.
According to statistics, at present, 13 provinces such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, And Zhejiang have successively formulated policies and plans related to the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry, involving a wide range of aspects, and have made detailed deployments for the planning and construction of hydrogen refueling stations, the promotion and application of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and the layout of the core industrial chain.
3.2 From the perspective of the use of the scene: heavy trucks have long distances and fixed routes
First of all, the driving route of heavy trucks is relatively fixed, so the layout of hydrogen refueling stations that are difficult to build can be more targeted. With less investment, the problem of hydrogen refueling can be solved by laying out hydrogen refueling stations on the route of related trunk logistics.
Second, hydrogen fuel cells do not have the constraints of pure electric in terms of mileage, and having higher energy density allows hydrogen fuel cell models to exchange smaller mass increments for longer range increases. The hydrogenation time is relatively short, and it can travel hundreds of kilometers once charged with hydrogen, which is no different from traditional fuel vehicles. Therefore, for heavy trucks that pay more attention to economic benefits, hydrogen fuel cells are more superior to pure electric technology.
Finally, the energy density of lithium batteries in the low temperature environment will be reduced, and even failures such as power outages will occur, which is a technical problem that is difficult to solve so far. Hydrogen fuel cells are not easily affected by low temperatures, and can still be used normally in low temperature environments; in addition, hydrogen fuel cells have a higher energy density, compared with pure electric vehicles weighing several tons, hydrogen fuel cells have low weight and higher efficiency.
Judging from the operation of hydrogen energy heavy trucks in the current market, its application scenarios are similar to pure electric heavy trucks, which are relatively closed scenarios, such as fixed transportation lines such as mines, coal, ports, and branch line short barges. However, hydrogen fuel heavy trucks have many advantages such as high load efficiency, easy long-distance transportation, easy low temperature start, and fast hydrogen filling speed. Therefore, the hydrogen energy technology route is more in line with the operational requirements of heavy trucks, and in the future, with the rapid development of the hydrogen energy industry chain, hydrogen energy heavy trucks may usher in golden development opportunities.