"It is unlikely that China will replicate top-notch lithography technology, as Asmak relies on relentless innovation and the integration of components that are only available from non-Chinese suppliers." But what I mean is not absolutely impossible, because the laws of physics in China are the same as we have here. Never say never, they'll definitely try. On January 19, local time, Peter Wennink, CEO of Dutch lithography giant ASML, said.
Lithography is the core link of chip manufacturing and the most difficult semiconductor device to develop. At present, Asma has a monopoly on the top lithography machine market, and the company is therefore regarded by the United States as a "political pawn" to contain the development of the Chinese mainland chip industry. At the same time as making the above statement, Win Peter also revealed that Asma has not yet obtained a license to export the most advanced lithography machines to Chinese mainland, but the export of some lithography machines with mature production processes is not restricted.
Elvis Hsu, general manager of the semiconductor division of CINNO Research, said in an interview with the Observer Network that the lithography machine is about 25-30% of the highest price of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and its research and development difficulties lie in the integration of technologies such as exposure light source, alignment system and transparent lens, as well as huge capital investment. At present, the domestic technology leading lithography machine manufacturer is Shanghai Microelectronics, which can stably produce 90/65nm manufacturing process of lithography machine.
Screenshot of the Reuters report
The past 2021 was the worst year of chip shortage in the world, and as a key equipment provider for semiconductor manufacturing, Asma also came up with a brilliant performance on January 19. According to the financial report, Asma's total revenue in 2021 was 18.6 billion euros (about 133.9 billion yuan), an increase of 33% year-on-year; net profit was 5.9 billion euros (about 42.5 billion yuan), an increase of 66% year-on-year; gross profit margin was 53%, an increase of 4 percentage points over the same period last year.
Asma ceo Peter Wen said that 6.3 billion euros in 2021 revenue came from 42 orders for EUV systems (extreme ultraviolet lithography machines), 11 more than the previous year. The company has experienced many challenges over the past year, with market demand 40 to 50 percent higher than its maximum capacity. To improve support for customers, the company chose to shorten the cycle to ship more equipment, skipping some tests at the factory mainly through a fast shipping process, and conducting final testing and formal acceptance at the customer's site. While this will delay revenue recognition until the customer's formal acceptance, it can help customers produce wafers earlier.
Increasing the number of employees has also become Asma's way of coping with the growing demand. Win said the company plans to increase its workforce from the current 31,500 to 35,000 by the end of the year. He revealed that the company will add more than 4,000 new employees in 2021, and the number of employees will increase by nearly 30% by the end of 2022 compared to the end of 2020. Still, Win said it could take two to three years for the company to strike a balance between supply and demand. With the construction of new factories, there may even be a "certain degree of oversupply" in the global semiconductor industry by 2025 or 2026.
In the fourth quarter alone, Asma achieved revenue of 5 billion euros, gross profit margin of 54.2%, net profit of 1.8 billion euros, and new orders of 7.1 billion euros. During the period, the company shipped a total of 82 lithography systems, an increase of 3 units from the previous quarter; of which 11 EUV lithography systems, down 4 from the previous quarter; of all shipments, 73% of the lithography machines were used for logical process manufacturing, and 27% of the lithography machines were used for memory chip production.
Screenshot of Asma's fourth quarter 2021 financial report
From the point of view of shipping places, Taiwan is still the largest market in Asmak, with 51% of the lithography systems sent to the local area in the fourth quarter, accounting for an increase of 5 percentage points month-on-month; South Korea is the company's second largest market, with 27% of the lithography systems sent to the local area in the same period, accounting for 6 percentage points lower than that; Chinese mainland is the third largest market in Asmak, with 22% of the lithography systems shipped to the local area in the fourth quarter, accounting for 12 percentage points. In the third quarter of 2021, the United States and Japan accounted for 10% and 1% of asmail shipments, respectively, but the proportion in the fourth quarter unexpectedly fell to 0, and the specific reasons are not clear.
Asmail Lithography Machine Shipping Information
For the past few years, Asma has been developing high numerical aperture (0.55 NA) EUV lithography machines. This EUV lithography machine uses the latest optical design and has a higher resolution (upgraded from 13 nm to 8 nm), which can reduce the chip area by 1.7 times and the transistor density by 2.9 times. Compared to the current 0.33 NA EUV lithography machine, the 0.55 NA lithography machine can significantly improve yields, reduce costs and shorten production cycles. Of course, the price of 0.55 NA lithography machines is also quite expensive, with each priced at about 300 million US dollars (about 1.9 billion yuan), which is twice the price of 0.33 NA lithography machines.
At present, TSMC and other chips that produce 7nm-5nm processes use 0.33 NA EUV lithography machines, and the first generation of 0.55 NA lithography machine TWINSCAN EXE: 5000 is still in the process of development and is expected to be listed in 2023. As early as 2018, Intel was the first to order the first generation of 0.55 NA EUV lithography machines to Asma, and the company is also expected to become the user of the first high-value aperture EUV lithography machine and use it for 3nm and below processes.
Asma NXE3400 EUV lithography machine (0.33 NA) Source: Asmak official website
In this financial disclosure, Asma revealed that the company received a TWINSCAN EXE: 5000 lithography machine order in the fourth quarter of 2021, with a cumulative order of 5. At the same time, the company also received the first order for the next generation of high-value aperture EUV lithography machine TWINSCAN EXE: 5200 in early 2022, and the order was placed by Intel. From the roadmap, TWINSCAN EXE: 5200 is expected to be put into use as soon as the end of 2024, and will begin large-scale production of advanced processes of 2nm or even below in 2025. Some analysts abroad have bluntly said, "I bet Intel has spent a lot of money on this right, because he is certainly not the only company that wants to get this kind of machine first." ”
Source: Asma
Looking ahead to the results for the new year, Asma expects its sales revenue in the first quarter of 2022 to be around €3.3 billion to €3.5 billion, down 30% to 34% sequentially. Win Peter explained that due to the large number of fast shipments, the expected revenue of about 2 billion euros will be transferred from the first quarter to the subsequent quarter, which is why the company's expected sales in the first quarter are low. Throughout the year, even considering that the revenue related to the rapid shipment of the current 6 EUV systems will be transferred to 2023, the company's revenue growth in 2022 will still reach about 20%.
But this statement was questioned by Lu Xingzhi, a semiconductor analyst in Taiwan. He mentioned that in the fourth quarter of 2021, the proportion of revenue of lithography machines for ASMA memory chips fell by 12 percentage points month-on-month, and the EUV that recognized revenue in the same period was also lower than the original expectation, perhaps because south Korea's Samsung and Hynix requested to delay the payment of EUV to Asma because of the decline in the price of DRAM (dynamic random access memory) contracts. Because since it is a fast shipment, in theory, it should also be a fast or punctual payment, but now asmail's fast shipment is delayed payment, how to explain it is very strange.
Screenshot of Taiwan media report
Prior to the release of this earnings report, there was a fire at the Asmail Berlin plant. According to a report provided to the Observer Network by TrendForce Jibang Consulting, the fire at the Berlin plant in Asmail Germany may have a greater impact on the manufacture of EUV lithography equipment for wafer foundry and memory. According to the information held by the agency, the parts required by ASMA are not excluded from being obtained through other plants, and the current delivery time of EUV equipment is quite long, so the actual impact on the supply of EUV remains to be seen. Asmail also does not expect the Berlin fire to have a significant impact on its 2022 system shipments.
Since 2018, Asma has tried to sell EUV lithography machines to Chinese mainland in the hope of further entering the Chinese mainland market, but the Dutch government has not approved its export license application. Under continued U.S. pressure, the request has been shelved by Dutch officials. Winningke said on the day of the earnings report that he was concerned about further export restrictions. "I'm concerned about any export control measures that the government has put in place. We seriously lack mature semiconductor technology, and we need mature manufacturing capabilities. ”
"Export controls will accelerate China's independent research and development, and in 15 years they will do everything", "After China is fully autonomous control of the supply chain, European suppliers will completely lose the market", in fact, Win Peter has publicly expressed anxiety last April, but the United States has always chosen to turn a blind eye.
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