April is the season when spring returns to the earth and is full of vitality. On April 12, "the first share of domestic securities investment education" Jiufang Fortune (09636. HK) successfully held the first phase of the 2024 Spring Strategy Conference of Q9 Financial Research Institute online.
Xiao Lisheng, Director of the Global Macroeconomic Research Office of the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Chief Economist of Q9 Intelligent Investment, Hou Wentao, Co-Director of the Q9 Institute of Finance, and Hu Xianghui, Co-Director of the Q9 Institute of Finance, were invited to bring the interpretation and outlook of the macroeconomy in the first quarter to investors, and at the same time focus on the two hot topics of "new quality productivity" and "artificial intelligence", and seek opportunities with investors in the complexity.
Xiao Lisheng: This round of real estate downturn may have entered the second half
Looking back at the overall situation of China's economy in the first quarter of this year, the mainland has gradually recovered in terms of consumption, investment, exports, manufacturing, etc., with a steady start and steady growth, but clear pressure and uncertainty can also be felt in the process of repair. As for how to deduce the market outlook, Dr. Xiao Lisheng, director of the Global Macroeconomic Research Office of the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and chief economist of Q9 Intelligent Investment, brought a report on "Macro Differentiation between China and the United States and Asset Price Abnormalities".
Xiao Lisheng pointed out that there are some differences between the trend of large assets and the macroeconomic situation from the analysis of the two capital prices of the recent continuous surge in gold prices and the sharp rise in domestic 30-year treasury bond yields. He analyzed that the U.S. economy is close to a soft landing, although its inflation has fallen to the target level for some time, but the U.S. PMI has returned to the boom and bust line after 16 months and has further risen, and the U.S. real estate market has entered a new cycle, showing the extraordinary resilience of the U.S. economy.
In his view, China's economy is currently in a period of structural transformation, and after surviving the downward cycle of the real estate market, China's economy will usher in a favorable economic environment, and this round of real estate downturn is likely to have entered the second half. Xiao Lisheng stressed that everyone should not be confused by the current downward momentum of real estate, once it stabilizes, it will rise relatively quickly.
Xiao Lisheng also pointed out that in the wave of anti-globalization, China's export market share is still increasing, which reflects that China's overseas GDP is relatively high, and the entire domestic manufacturing industry is also very competitive.
Hou Wentao: Comparable to "carbon neutrality",
New quality productivity brings continuous investment opportunities
The 2024 government work report takes "vigorously promoting the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerating the development of new quality productivity" as the first major task in 2024, emphasizing that "it is necessary to promote industrial innovation with scientific and technological innovation, especially to promote new industries, new models and new kinetic energy with disruptive technologies and cutting-edge technologies, and develop new quality productivity".
In this process, artificial intelligence is undoubtedly one of the key grasps and engines of industrial innovation. In the era of the surging wave of artificial intelligence, "AI+" products emerge in an endless stream, especially the leapfrog development of AI in China, which has also pressed the "shortcut key" for digital smart life.
At this strategy meeting, Hou Wentao, co-director of Jiufang Financial Research Institute, gave a keynote report on the hot topic of "new quality productivity", and gave wonderful views and analysis on the industry and investment opportunities contained therein.
In Hou Wentao's view, China's economic development has reached a new stage, and it needs to look forward to the future more. The development of new quality productivity is essential to hedge against the downward pressure on real estate. As a result, new productivity will be the most significant macro and policy theme of the year, and there may be continued investment opportunities, which can be compared to "carbon neutrality".
Hou Wentao's analysis pointed out that the new quality productivity represents two major industries: one is the strategic emerging industry, which is now in a period of high growth and has a relatively long industrial chain, which may replace the real estate industry that was considered the largest in the past; In summary, the representative industries and investment opportunities related to new quality productivity in China are:
- Reasonable valuations that may be policy-driven: such as data elements, innovative drugs, autonomous driving, wind power, etc.;
- The valuation is reasonable, and the industry may have an inflection point: such as photovoltaics, batteries, electronics/semiconductors, etc.;
- Temporarily overheated and need to wait for the end of the adjustment: such as AI, humanoid robots, low-altitude economy, etc.;
- The potential space for the future is huge: such as humanoid robots, low-altitude economy, hydrogen energy, etc.
In addition, regarding the market situation in the second quarter, Hou Wentao believes that more focus will be placed on the driving force of fundamentals, and more attention will be paid to corporate performance and the sustainability of economic recovery.
Hu Xianghui:
The mainland is a fertile ground for AI development, and the future is worth looking forward to
As an important driving factor of new quality productivity, artificial intelligence plays an important role in promoting the development of new quality productivity by improving production efficiency, optimizing resource allocation, enhancing innovation ability and improving production safety level. Hu Xianghui pointed out in the report "China's AI, Worth Expecting" that the mainland has the largest group of AI talents, but the industry concentration is more dispersed, which is a fertile ground for AI development.
In the application of artificial intelligence, computing power is one of the three indispensable elements, and it is also the place where the AI game between China and the United States is "stuck". With the breakthrough of 7nm semiconductor technology in the mainland, the development of computing power in the mainland will also usher in leapfrog progress. According to Hu Xianghui's analysis, the current AI model in mainland China has not yet achieved a commercial closed loop, and it is still necessary to find practical application scenarios, and the perfect domestic industrial chain and huge market provide an excellent scenario for the implementation of AI technology.
In the direction of AI investment, Hu Xianghui suggested that we can pay attention to the following two points:
- The upstream value is the first to be mined, and the business realization is clear: first, corpus (text, publishing, video, voice, industry data), and second, computing power base (GPU, optical module, intelligent computing server, AIDC-related);
- The scarce value links of AI in the process of industry empowerment, such as industrial software (design, process, and manufacturing), enterprise management (ERP), industry models, and industry data platforms (cloud, transactions, and data elements).
It is reported that in order to better empower the majority of investors, Q9 will launch the "2024 Investment Research Leader Program" from April this year, through the monthly N lightweight and high-frequency investment research column "Investment Research Method" program and two more authoritative and professional investment strategy report conferences in the middle and end of each year, in a combination of "lightweight + heavyweight", to help investors build a comprehensive investment perspective and deeply empower intelligent decision-making.