The tide of property market policies is coming, and the trade-in of the old leads to new and strange moves

Deng Haozhi taught to buy a house

2024-05-05 17:09Published in Guangdong Knowledge Officer, real estate economist, director of the All-China Economic Federation

Text: Deng Haozhi

2024 has passed 4 months, but the property market is still sluggish. Compared with last year, the transaction volume in various places fell by nearly 30%. All localities can't sit still, and a new round of policies to stabilize the property market has been frequently introduced in various places. And this round of new deal wave has an obvious feature, that is, there are many new and strange tricks. There seem to be more "new tools" in the toolbox.

Trade-in "rolled out" across the country?

In the last few days of the end of April, major second-tier cities, including Zhengzhou, Changsha and Nanjing, announced that they would pilot the trade-in policy for second-hand housing. This is very, very noteworthy news, I specifically commented on this matter when the trade-in policy came out in early April, and interested friends can look back. Brief summary: This is a big move to save the property market, which not only promotes second-hand, but also drives the first-hand market. Second, the ability of local governments to bear the burden is a test.

In addition, Hangzhou has recently convened a symposium for real estate companies, mainly to discuss how to create a new balance in Hangzhou's real estate market through the linkage of primary and second-hand properties. At the meeting, it was discussed that Hangzhou could learn from its city's experience of "trade-in". It seems that Hangzhou is also preparing to implement the "old for new" policy. If Hangzhou, a quasi-first-tier city, also trades in for the new, it would not be surprising that most cities across the country will follow suit. Since the "trade-in" of housing requires local governments to have certain financial resources, I am afraid that only local governments in first- and second-tier cities can use this "tool", and third- and fourth-tier cities are basically useless.

However, it is still necessary to emphasize again that there are various forms of "trade-in", and only the government-led second-hand housing acquisition can be regarded as a real "trade-in", and the vast majority of urban developer-led trade-ins are fake, gimmicks, in fact, "consignment". It also includes Shenzhen, which announced a few days ago that it can "trade in the old for the new". In fact, it is just a 90-day turnaround time for buying a new house to buy an old house.

Lishui intends to sell tiny plots of land to individuals

Please note that the land is bought for personal development, not the developer. According to the relevant documents, for the small plots of land transferred by individuals, individuals can build houses independently or jointly, and they can apply for property certificates and sell them after completion. If this news is true, it is a big, huge news for Chinese real estate and real estate.

First of all, why is this happening? I guess the main reason is that the local government wants to get more land, so that the local government can have more revenue. After all, Lishui is a third- and fourth-tier city, and the local housing demand is not large, so the property market has definitely not been good in recent years, and the land market is also sluggish.

Secondly, what will be the impact? The biggest impact is that in the future, there will be many mosquito-shaped small real estate buildings, in which a big family lives or the same village. There will also be many personalized and customized private courtyards, such as the Canglang Pavilion, the Lion Forest, the Master of Nets Garden, the Retreat Garden, and so on.

In the end, will ordinary people or small enterprises also participate in real estate development? I think at most they are land buyers, and as for the main body of trading, they have to be traditional real estate enterprises. After all, their advantages in design, process, efficiency, and control are not the slightest. It's just that you buy the land back, and they can customize it for you according to your requirements. Just like a travel agency, in addition to large groups, customers can also customize a route by themselves.

Chengdu has also canceled purchase restrictions, are other cities still far away?

On April 28, Chengdu announced that it would no longer review the qualifications for buying houses, which is equivalent to the complete cancellation of the purchase restriction policy. On the same day, Chengdu also announced an increase in the loan amount for the first home of the housing provident fund for multi-child families.

The news blew up as soon as it came out. Not because the policy itself is so creative, but because of the Chengdu market. In recent years, the national property market has not been good, but the Chengdu property market has been very good in recent years. Last year, when housing prices fell across the country, Chengdu actually recorded a slight increase. This is not statistical fraud, nor is it a problem with the statistical caliber, but the transaction volume of Chengdu residential buildings is really large, and the demand is really strong. This has a large number of local housing demand in Chengdu, as well as a large number of housing purchase demand from other cities in the province. At the beginning of this year, I conducted a series of field research in Chengdu, and this is indeed the case.

Chengdu's property market is not bad, but it has fully relaxed the purchase restrictions, which is a very important signal. Cities where house prices have been falling have no reason to insist on restricting purchases. Including several first-tier cities. Since Chengdu's property market is not bad, and now it has been fully relaxed, it is likely to become the first city in the country to recover in the future.

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Personal opinion, for reference only