The big shuffle! In 2024, the list of new first-tier cities will be announced

Financial vernacular

2024-05-30 11:13Published in Guangdong real estate creators

Author: Yu Fei

01

The latest list of new first-tier cities has been announced

Since 2013, the end of May every year has been the day when CBN and the New First-tier Cities Research Institute release the list of new first-tier cities.

Although this list has been criticized for a long time and has been pushed to the forefront of public opinion in the past two years, they are still happy to publish it.

Before getting into the main topic, this number still needs to emphasize that the so-called first-tier, second-tier, third- and fourth-tier cities, as well as the new first-tier cities that have become popular in recent years, are not the names of the official system, but just words drummed up by non-governmental organizations, thus forming a conventional saying.

In the official division of cities, there are only seven levels according to the population of urban areas: megacities, megacities, type I cities, type II cities, medium cities, type I small cities, and type II small cities.

On May 30, the latest list was announced. Different from the past, the name of this year's list has been adjusted, which used to be called "City Business Charm Ranking", and this year it has been changed to "New First-tier City Charm Ranking".

The grading system has also been adjusted.

In the past, it focused on five dimensions: commercial resource agglomeration, urban hub, urban people's activity, lifestyle diversity, and future plasticity.

In 2024, it will be adjusted to the concentration of commercial resources, urban hub, urban people's activity, new economic competitiveness, and future plasticity.

The final list of new first-tier cities in 2024 is:

Chengdu, Hangzhou, Chongqing, Suzhou, Wuhan, Xi'an, Nanjing, Changsha, Tianjin, Zhengzhou, Dongguan, Wuxi, Ningbo, Qingdao and Hefei.

The new first-tier refers to the cities that are most likely to become first-tier in the future.

Compared with 2023, the biggest change in the ranking is that Kunming is out and Wuxi is back.

Cartography: City Finance; Data: New Tier 1 Cities Research Institute

From the table above, you can see the changes in the list of 15 new first-tier cities released over the years:

First, Chengdu ranks first among the new first-tier cities with a score of 100 every year.

Second, the nine cities of Chengdu, Hangzhou, Chongqing, Wuhan, Xi'an, Tianjin, Nanjing, Qingdao and Changsha are as stable as a rock and are frequent visitors to the list published every year. Suzhou has been on the list since 2016, when it was promoted to a new first-tier city. Dongguan has been on the list since 2017.

Third, Zhengzhou, Xiamen, Wuxi, Fuzhou, Jinan, Foshan, Kunming, Hefei, Ningbo, and Shenyang have become the soldiers in this iron-clad battalion, sometimes on the list, sometimes out of the game.

Fourth, the number of cities in the north is decreasing. Among the 15 new first-tier cities in 2013, there are still 6 in the north: Tianjin, Xi'an, Qingdao, Shenyang, Dalian, and Jinan, and only 4 in Xi'an, Tianjin, Zhengzhou, and Qingdao by 2024.

02

Why can Chengdu be ranked first?

Regarding this list, the biggest controversy is why Chengdu can't move and ranks first with a score of 100 all year round.

Of course, 100 points is not a full score, just a reference standard, the comprehensive score of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen is above 100 points, and it is one of the four first-tier cities in the iron fight.

I wondered about this last year.

It's not that Chengdu is not excellent, Chengdu's excellence is undeniable, the GDP is the seventh in the country, and the GDP of the provincial capital city is second only to Guangzhou.

But no matter how good Chengdu is, it is impossible to rank first among the new first-tier cities every year. Moreover, in 2013, the GDP strength of Tianjin, Suzhou and Chongqing was higher than that of Chengdu. Even now, Chengdu is still pressed by Chongqing and Suzhou. The transportation hub element, Chengdu was not the strongest before.

Of course, the selection of new first-tier cities avoids the logic of winning or losing in terms of GDP, and adopts a different way to adopt the ruling method of commercial resource concentration, urban hub, urban people's activity, new economic competitiveness and future plasticity.

But it is debatable that Chengdu can really rank first in all five aspects.

The latest scores of the five standard rankings released by the New Tier 1 Cities Research Institute are:

The concentration of commercial resources: 100 points in Chengdu, and more than 100 points in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

City hub: Chengdu 100 points, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are above 100 points.

Urban activity: Chengdu has a score of 100, second only to Shanghai and Beijing, and above Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

New economic competitiveness: Chengdu 78.55 points, Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou are above 100 points, Suzhou 100 points, Hangzhou and Nanjing are also above Chengdu.

Future plasticity: Chengdu has 100 points, second only to Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou.

There are two doubts here:

First, Chengdu is not all 100 points in the five indicators, and the competitiveness of the new economy is very stretched, only 78.55 points, according to the calculation of 20% of the competitiveness of the new economy, Chengdu's comprehensive score should be:

100×0.19 (commercial resource concentration score) + 100×0.2 (urban hub score) + 100×0.22 (urban people's activity score) + 78.55×0.2 (new economic competitiveness score) + 100×0.19 (future plasticity score) = 95.71 points.

Second, in terms of urban hub standards, Chengdu actually ranks 100 points, which is higher than the traditional hub cities such as Zhengzhou and Wuhan?

Judging from the current situation, Chengdu's hub advantage is only in aviation. Thanks to the addition of Tianfu International Airport, Chengdu's passenger throughput ranks second in the country, second only to Shanghai.

However, in land transportation, the advantage does not exist compared with Wuhan, Zhengzhou and Xi'an.

According to public data, Beijing and Zhengzhou are tied for the first place in the number of cities connected by high-speed rail and bullet trains, Shanghai, Wuhan, Xi'an, Nanjing and Jinan are tied for second, and the number of cities connected by high-speed rail and bullet trains in Chengdu is even worse than Shijiazhuang, Hangzhou, Changsha and Hefei.

In addition, Zhengzhou ranks first in the country in terms of the number of cities accessible by high-speed rail and bullet train within 3 hours in key cities, with 56 cities within 3 hours, Wuhan second, Nanjing third, Hefei fourth, Jinan fifth, and Beijing sixth. As for Chengdu, it is only ranked 21st.

From this point of view, this list can only be for reference only.

03

Wuxi returns, Kunming is out

Wuxi's return is a matter of course.

As the second strongest prefecture-level city in China, its strength is second only to Suzhou, with a GDP of more than 1.5 trillion yuan, stronger than Changsha, Zhengzhou, Fuzhou, Jinan, Hefei and many other provincial capitals, ranking 14th in the country.

Of course, considering that the assessment of new first-tier cities excludes GDP. However, most of the five indicators it assesses have a lot to do with GDP, such as future plasticity, business resource concentration, and new economic competitiveness.

Most importantly, Wuxi's per capita GDP ranks first among economically strong cities.

In the past ten years, Wuxi has overtaken all the way. In 2011, the per capita GDP surpassed Suzhou for the first time and crossed the threshold of 100,000 yuan. In 2020, Wuxi's per capita GDP reached 165,800 yuan, surpassing first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shenzhen, and topping large and medium-sized cities for the first time, and its status continues to this day.

All of these need to be supported by its industry and the new economy.

Kunming's backwardness is also a matter of course. Because in the past two years, Kunming's GDP has fallen into a water reversal.

The new first-tier cities do not judge heroes by GDP, but GDP is currently the most effective indicator to measure the comprehensive strength of a city, and its changes affect the ups and downs of various indicators of the city.

In 2023, Kunming's GDP will be 786.476 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.3%.

This growth rate ranks third from the bottom among major cities (municipalities, sub-provincial cities, provincial capitals and capital cities), only slightly better than Harbin and Xiamen. The growth rate ranking fell one place from the first three quarters of last year.

Cartography: City Finance; Data: Municipal statistical bureaus

In the first quarter of 2024, Kunming's GDP growth rate was 3.4%, ranking sixth from the bottom among major cities (municipalities, sub-provincial cities, provincial capitals and capital cities).

Cartography: City Finance; Data: Municipal statistical bureaus

The direct factor of Kunming's water reversal is caused by investment and export diving.

According to the data released by the Kunming Bureau of Statistics, in 2023, Kunming's fixed asset investment will fall by 24.9%, of which real estate development investment will fall by 40.2%.

Behind such a serious decline in real estate development investment is that land cannot be sold at all.

2019 was the peak of Kunming's land market, with land sales revenue of 91.57 billion yuan that year, and then declining all the way. Revenue from land sales decreased by 25.7% to MOP68.03 billion in 2020. In 2021, compared with 2020, it fell by 38.5% to only 41.81 billion yuan.

In 2022, Kunming's land sales revenue was only 12.36 billion yuan, down 70.4% from 2021 and 86.5% from the high point in 2019.

In 2023, it will directly dive to 4.628 billion yuan.

Cartography: City Finance; Data: Kunming Municipal Bureau of Finance, media public

In addition, Kunming's imports and exports fell by 27.6% in 2023.

Source: Kunming Municipal Bureau of Statistics

The core reason is the drag of the industry.

From the perspective of 100 billion industries, there is only one industry in Kunming with a revenue of more than 100 billion yuan, which is the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry.

Cartography: City Finance; Data: Kunming Bureau of Statistics

The second largest operating income is the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry, and the third is the tobacco manufacturing industry.

This is the industrial belongings of a provincial capital.

There is no harm without contrast. Looking at the industrial strength of the leading industrial city, Shenzhen, the first industrial city, had an industrial added value of 1,135.7 billion yuan last year, and Shanghai and Suzhou were also above one trillion yuan.

Kunming's industrial added value in 2022 will only be 165.225 billion yuan.

Cartography: City Finance; Data: Municipal statistical bureaus

In addition to industry, the problem of debt is also a big problem.

Last year, Kunming's debt problem sparked heated discussions on the Internet. Enterprise early warning data shows that:

As of the end of 2022, the interest-bearing debt of Kunming's urban investment platform reached 357.75 billion yuan.

If the sum of the general public budget revenue and the government fund revenue is used as the government's comprehensive financial resources, then the debt ratio (interest-bearing debt of the urban investment platform/comprehensive government financial resources) of Kunming's urban investment debt (excluding local government explicit debt) alone reaches 550%. According to the statistics of China Chengxin International, in 2022, the scale of interest-bearing debt of urban investment in China will exceed 60 trillion yuan, and the debt ratio will be 200%, which is already at a high level, while Kunming is 2.5 times the national level.

Borrowing for development, this is the mainstream model in many regions in the past many years, within a certain range, this method is not bad, but beyond a certain range, it will backfire itself. Kunming is a typical case of this.

In recent years, with the sharp plunge in land sales income and the shrinkage of fiscal revenue, many places have fallen into debt difficulties.

At the end of last year, the General Office of the State Council issued a document requiring 12 provinces and municipalities not to start new projects in 2024 except for basic livelihood projects.

The provinces and cities named include: Tianjin, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Guangxi, Chongqing, Guizhou, Yunnan, Gansu, Qinghai and Ningxia. 

There are no other reasons for this, but because of debt problems.

Kunming's debt problems have also raised salary problems.

Last year, China News Weekly revealed:

A staff member of Kunming Rail Transit Group responded that there is such a situation, and the specific number of people needs to be verified because the group is involved in many subsidiaries.

According to media reports, some employees have not received their wages since May, but in order to keep the subway running, these employees can only continue to work. In addition, some employees revealed that in addition to the wages that have been suspended, the employees' five insurances and one housing fund have also been in arrears for more than a year. In addition, quality and safety bonuses, meal subsidies and performance have not been paid since the end of last year.

Kunming Metro said that the bank loan originally planned for this week has not yet landed, and the salary cannot be paid temporarily due to the lack of funds, so please be patient, and the company is still working hard to coordinate other sources of funds.

Kunming's subway has always relied on government subsidies to operate. In 2022, after deducting 992 million subsidies, Kunming Rail Transit Group will make a profit of -913 million yuan. That is, a loss of 913 million yuan a year.

Two days ago, this number sorted out the 29 cities that have released data (Shanghai, Hangzhou, Dongguan, Hefei, Nantong, Dalian, Harbin, Xuzhou, Luoyang and other subway cities have not disclosed data, so they are not included in the statistics) of the subway operation, 29 cities, only Fuzhou after deducting government subsidies, the profit is positive, the rest are negative, even the previous profit king Shenzhen Metro, Wuhan Metro, has not been able to dodge.

Among them, Kunming lost 2.29 billion yuan after deducting subsidies.

Cartography: City Finance; Data: By metro company

With so many problems, Kunming should be squeezed out of other cities in the new first-tier cities.

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Personal opinion, for reference only