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Preface
For a long time, the most discussed ways of China's reunification were "military reunification" and "peaceful reunification," but now there are some uncertainties in both ways.
However, some military experts on the Taiwan issue believe that Chinese mainland has found a third way.
On the premise that there is no need to use force and not to rely too much on "peace and unification", other routes have been developed, and good progress has been made.
What is this third way?
"Harmony and unification" route
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the mainland and the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council have repeatedly emphasized:
The policy of "peaceful reunification and one country, two systems" is our basic principle for resolving the Taiwan issue, and realizing the reunification of the motherland by peaceful means is most in line with the overall interests of the Chinese nation, including the Taiwan compatriots.
Since the founding of New China, the mainland has made efforts for the peaceful reunification of Taiwan for many years, and has made many achievements during this period, such as the "three links" between the two sides of the strait and the "consensus of '92."
However, in recent years, it is undeniable that the mainland's negotiations on Taiwan's peaceful reunification are becoming more and more difficult.
In addition to the various hollowing out tactics of the ruling DPP regime and seeking independence, there are three very thorny factors in our "peace and reunification" plan.
The first is that the "stripping" of mainland and Taiwan culture is becoming more and more serious, and the education of the new generation on the island of Taiwan before this century is still centered on "the integration of the mainland and Taiwan."
Many history books and political books emphasize the identity of mainland and Taiwan, the historical and cultural heritage of compatriots on both sides of the strait, and the origin of the Han nationality.
In addition, many Taiwan residents are mainland-born military personnel and direct blood relatives, so it can be said that the trend of reunification in the 80s and 90s was still very good, and many islanders supported the reunification of the two sides of the strait in an "acceptable way."
However, after Chiang Ching-kuo's death, his successor, Lee Teng-hui, suddenly illegally advocated the Taiwan independence line and put forward for the first time the absurd viewpoint of the "two-state theory."
During the tenure of office of Lee Teng-hui, Chen Shui-bian, and subsequent officials, Taiwan gradually systematically and purposefully deleted and revised the textbooks many times, eliminated a large number of parts of Taiwan's ties with the mainland, and deliberately stripped away the cultural base points of mainland Taiwan.
The second is that the DPP's basic position is very solid, and this has a lot to do with the first point.
Under the influence of the perennial acceptance of "independence teaching materials" and the culture of seeking independence, coupled with all kinds of malicious political smears and money-created propaganda of Western countries to incite separatism.
Even though the DPP is now at a low level of government and rampant with corruption, it can still rely on the action of "wiping the border for independence" to gain a large number of votes, and the green camp is still very powerful even after several rounds of screening and crackdown.
A poll conducted on Taiwan shows that the age group of those who support peaceful reunification has begun to be significantly "unbalanced," with the majority of middle-aged and elderly people.
And the rest of the people, even those who are not in the green camp and are peacemakers, have become more and more alienated from the mainland in the long-term influence of this cultural and social atmosphere, and these voting talents have the greatest difficulty.
Third, the political level of the opposition parties is also getting lower and lower.
The KMT and the People's Party have combined support to have any hope of defeating the DPP, and last year the two sides also negotiated the formation of an alliance.
But on July 24, 2023, the KMT and the People's Party announced that they could not reach an agreement for the last time, and the alliance negotiations were stopped, which became known as the "blue and white confluence" incident.
What can be seen here is that if we pin our hopes on the blue camp and the white camp, which still have a sense of identity with the mainland, come to power and realize the continuation of peace talks.
The big drama staged by the two sides last year can be said to show that their critical choices are difficult to come together.
There is a viewpoint that as long as the mainland's economy can maintain its current momentum in the future, "peaceful reunification" will be realized, and the sons and daughters of China will be able to see the arrival of this day.
However, in response to this viewpoint, foreign Chinese scholars said that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has long been on guard against the problem of Taiwan's economic dependence on the mainland, and is now creating a high-cost economic transformation.
In the next few decades, fewer and fewer people will receive the cultural education of the "Lutai family", and the "independence system" established by it will take shape.
Even if the mainland is much stronger than Taiwan's economy, peace and reunification will be a troublesome matter.
To sum up, although peaceful reunification is the best solution at present, the current situation and development prospects are quite worrisome.
From the "92 Consensus" to the present, the fact that the status quo and foundation of peace reunification have shown a downward trend is one of the bad signals.
If China had been able to achieve new achievements like the "92 Consensus" over the past 30 years, and if no one had deliberately undermined the historical and cultural identity of the two sides of the strait, the status quo would have been much better.
Otherwise, as many people have inferred, the possibility of peaceful reunification between the mainland and Taiwan is getting lower and lower.
The "military reunification" route is no less tricky
The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China also stressed: The mainland's refusal to renounce the use of force is absolutely not aimed at Taiwan compatriots, but at the interference of external forces and a very small number of "Taiwan independence" separatists and their separatist activities.
At present, with the advancement of time, the deployment of "resisting reunification by force" on the island is becoming more and more obvious.
Moreover, with the development of the mainland's military strength, the gap between the mainland's strength and Taiwan's strength is getting wider and wider, so some people think that "military reunification" will become simpler and simpler, but in fact this is not the case.
The first point is the change of the overall route of Taiwan Island, with the development of the Continental Army, Taiwan Island has realized that the feasibility of "going head-to-head" is not high.
The US authorities have made very frequent arms sales to Taiwan, and they have now shifted their focus to the so-called "delaying operations" in accordance with US instructions.
That is, to delay the landing of Chinese mainland as much as possible in order to obtain foreign aid equipment and the arrival of allies.
Therefore, in recent years, Taiwan has focused its procurement on communications systems, air defense systems, fighter planes, anti-armor weapons, and unmanned aerial vehicles, in order to create as much trouble as possible for its opponents.
In addition, the first self-developed submarine "Haikun" on Taiwan Island was launched last year, and Taiwan media believe that in the future, the authorities may retire all warships and greatly develop submarine forces to be used as the main weapon of confrontation.
The launching of submarines is also a fulfillment of the "asymmetric warfare" concept demanded by the United States, and the more delays there are, the more problems will become.
The second point is that the United States is becoming more and more determined to intervene, and the number of threats is very frequent.
Before Trump's term in office, the United States did not mention the concept of so-called "military aid to Taiwan" for a long time.
U.S. officials believe that a war between Taiwan and the mainland will be a serious loss for them regardless of the outcome, and no one wants to do so.
However, in recent years, the US Government has increasingly issued direct provocations, clearly emphasizing the possibility of military assistance to Taiwan, and even wooing countries such as Japan and South Korea to "protect Taiwan."
So is the United States all bluffing?
Russian scholars believe that it is unnecessary for Washington to believe that when China has just risen and Washington believes that China has not yet affected the international hegemony of the United States, it will not have friction with the mainland for the sake of the Taiwan Strait or any issue.
However, in recent years, the United States has fallen more and more behind China in the field of peaceful development, and it has begun to lag behind in many fields due to China's strong productive forces and industrial upgrading methods.
Under such circumstances, it is entirely possible for the United States to make a desperate bet and prepare for a hot war with the aim of "crushing political opponents," and the best starting point for this issue is on the Taiwan issue.
Any means of using force will be blocked and sanctioned by Western countries, and this is a plan that the United States has planned for a long time and even has a higher priority than the "use of force."
Third, because the Western allies of the United States may not be able to send too many warships to the Asian region, many NATO countries have already expressed their stance in the joint statement, rejecting "any change in the status quo" in the Taiwan Strait.
It is conceivable that after the outbreak of conflict, the United States will join the West in including China and Russia in the big sanctions plan, trying to blockade China's economy and interrupt its rise on global issues.
Some skepticism may argue that Europe does not have the courage and determination to do so, and it is true that in the current EU situation, breaking off the China deal will hurt their morale, but the EU may not be able to manage this.
The European Commission is an organization controlled by American influence, so much so that when sanctions were launched against Russia, its own interests were not taken into account at all.
The same may be true for China, where goods made in China are somehow less prioritized than Russian raw materials, and the EU is willing to "stab itself", and they will all start under pressure from the United States.
Taiwan expert says mainland "has a new route to solve the problem"
In this regard, Wang Zaixi, vice president of the National Association of Taiwan Studies, believes that there is still a third way for Taiwan and the mainland to go.
It is not a peaceful reunification that lacks a foundation and is becoming more and more lacking, or a military reunification that often pays huge costs, but a compromise line of "forcing peace by war and promoting reunification by force."
Wang Zaixi said that if the mainland implemented this, the cost would be smaller and more practical, and this method is also known as the "Beiping model".
During the War of Liberation, Fu Zuoyi's army in Beiping still had many people in its hands, and if there was a frontal confrontation, it would inevitably suffer serious losses.
Subsequently, under the strong pressure of the Chinese People's Liberation Army, coupled with the affection for Fu Zuoyi and the national righteousness, Fu Zuoyi's surrender was finally won, so that the historical city of Beiping and the two armies were spared the baptism of war.
Then the premise of the realization of the "Beiping model" is to exert pressure on the diehards on Taiwan Island by using force or "soft force".
Chinese mainland has conducted many military exercises on Taiwan in recent years, and the subsequent "island-encircling exercises" are enough to show that Chinese mainland's strength has an absolute advantage over Taiwan.
Moreover, in the face of military aid from the mainland surrounded by islands, the Taiwan authorities only dare to carry out so-called protests and have no means of countermeasures.
These military exercises have also changed the tone of Taiwan in recent years, with many diehards clamoring for "no need to fight", and now most people in street interviews have changed their narrative and said that they want to "maintain the status quo."
As long as a similar understanding can enter Taiwan's concept, they will not dare to be presumptuous when faced with the choice of seeking independence, and first know what the price will be.
Of course, the final result of the pressure exerted by the line of "forcing peace with war and promoting reunification with force" is still unification, just as when the time was ripe for Beiping, Fu Zuoyi put forward five principles, allowing the garrison troops to choose between "war" and "peace".
After weighing the pros and cons, especially after understanding that they would pay a serious price if they didn't make peace, Fu Zuoyi chose to lay down his arms.
The same is true on the Taiwan issue, where the increasingly urgent military pressure and the use of force will cause Taiwan to accept subtle changes in its cognition and "acceptance."
When the time is ripe, we can take the opportunity to put forward a peace plan that is in line with the interests and well-being of the people on both sides of the strait, and ultimately realize the common ideal of reunification.
In addition, the "use of force" under pressure is not only in the military aspect, but can also be used to "exhaust Taiwan" by economic means.
On May 30 this year, the mainland once again announced the second batch of tariff reductions for some products of the "Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement" (ECFA), and the tariff exemption for goods in Taiwan 134 was cancelled.
The people on Taiwan will be able to feel the obvious impact after it takes effect in June, and the tightening of our pockets on Taiwan in the next few years will be accompanied by more of this kind of ensuing pressure.
It is impossible for people on Taiwan Island to maintain an attitude of not letting up their mouths all the time, and it can be said that "poor Taiwan" is also one of the effective strategies.
Therefore, taking into account all aspects of the situation, given that "peaceful reunification" is rather difficult and the cost of "armed reunification" is on the high side, the proposal put forward by experts on the Taiwan issue is of great reference significance and is worth trying and exploring.
In order to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, China will inevitably explore all feasible routes to strike a blow at the arrogance of all diehard separatists and ultimately achieve national reunification.
Resources:
"Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council Reaffirms: No Commitment to Give Up the Use of Force Aimed at the Interference of External Forces and a Very Small Number of "Taiwan Independence" Separatists and Their Separatist Activities", China Taiwan Network
Why does this phrase appear so many times? More Interpretation of PLA Military Exercises" Taiwan Strait Network
"Wang Zaixi: Persist in Engaging in "Taiwan Independence" Sooner or Later There Will Be War" Global Network