At the same time as Russian President Vladimir Putin is on a state visit to North Korea, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has appeared in Seoul, the capital of South Korea, and the situation on the Korean Peninsula seems to be about to usher in a major change.
Today, when the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is still unresolved, and the situation in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait is becoming increasingly tense, the situation on the Korean Peninsula is about to usher in major changes, and China and Russia have taken action. When Russian President Vladimir Putin began his state visit to North Korea, the Western media were taken by surprise and threw words like "axis of evil" at Russia and North Korea. At the same time as Putin's trip to North Korea, representatives of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) also arrived in Seoul to participate in the first "2+2" diplomatic and security dialogue between China and South Korea at the vice-ministerial level. Although China and Russia are holding diplomatic consultations with the ROK and the DPRK at different levels, they may indicate a dramatic change in the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
(Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives in Pyongyang)
Putin's current visit to the DPRK is a return visit to the DPRK leader's visit to Russia in September last year. According to KCNA, Kim Jong-un held a "historic" meeting with Putin at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Amur region of Russia's Far East, where the two sides discussed a number of major issues and matters of cooperation, and reached agreements and consensus. During this period, Kim Jong-un invited Putin to visit the DPRK, and Putin accepted the invitation. This return visit shows that the process of restoring relations between Russia and the DPRK step by step since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has reached its climax.
Judging from the article written by Putin for the DPRK's "Rodong Sinmun" before his departure, his visit is aimed at fully restoring the traditional friendship and cooperation between Russia and the DPRK. This means that Russian-North Korean relations may return to the heights of relations between the Soviet Union and North Korea. This is the first major change in the situation on the peninsula. In the article, Putin stressed that Russia and the DPRK will develop people-to-people cooperation, plan to strengthen academic exchanges between Russian and DPRK universities, and further strengthen tourism, cultural, educational, youth, and sports exchanges. Western media interpretations of this focus on military cooperation between the two countries, pointing out that Russia may export long-range missile technology to North Korea, while North Korea supports Russia in conventional weapons and ammunition, and both sides take what they need. North Korea's conventional weapons and ammunition will be an important help for Russia to win the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
(Portraits of Putin hang on the streets of Pyongyang)
At the same time, China sent a team composed of senior representatives of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the armed forces to visit the ROK, and the "2+2" dialogue on diplomatic and security at the vice-ministerial level was held for the first time since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the ROK, which was the second major change in the situation on the Korean Peninsula. This is because the "2+2" dialogue on diplomatic and security, a high-level exchange and consultation mechanism, generally only occurs between two countries with close relations. South Korea has mostly held similar talks with the United States, Japan or other Western countries in the past. Now China and South Korea have also established a "2+2" dialogue mechanism on diplomatic security, which shows that even if the Yoon Suk-yeol administration is pro-American, after two years of "severe beatings" in reality, it has clearly recognized China's indispensable and huge influence on maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula. Through this change, China has also reconstructed its security posture in the northeast, and gradually reduced the ambition of the United States to build a military alliance between the United States, Japan and South Korea.
(China and the ROK hold a "2+2" dialogue on diplomatic security at the vice-ministerial level)
Notably, inter-Korean relations have deteriorated since last year, with North Korea canceling the North-South unification body, decorating South Korea as an "enemy country," and both countries canceling the 9/19 military agreement to maintain peace in the demilitarized zone around the 38th parallel, which increases the risk of conflict. According to South Korean media reports, according to the South Korean Joint Staff Headquarters, dozens of North Korean soldiers recently crossed the military demarcation line on the Korean Peninsula. This is a test run by North Korea against South Korea. In recent years, both the United States and Japan have stepped up their military deployments on the Korean Peninsula, and the US military has often held joint military exercises with the ROK military to threaten the DPRK. Not long ago, US strategic bombers also carried out a cruising flight in the airspace around North Korea, threatening North Korea and endangering the security interests of China and Russia. Therefore, the development of closer relations between the DPRK and Russia can be said to be a response to the strategic pressure of the United States.
(Tensions between the two Koreas have been recent in the near future, South Korean soldiers inspect the "garbage balloons" released by North Korea)
Needless to say, China's relationship with North Korea goes without saying. It should be pointed out that the "Sino-DPRK Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance" signed in 1961 contains a mutual defense clause, and Article 2 of it stipulates that "once one of the Contracting Parties is under a state of war due to a joint armed attack by any one or several countries, the other Contracting Party shall immediately and do its utmost to provide military and other assistance." In 2021, on the occasion of the 60th anniversary of the signing of the China-DPRK Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, the mainland confirmed that the treaty will continue to enter into force. The treaty, which is one of the cornerstones of North Korea's security, has put tremendous pressure on the United States and made South Korea realize that it is very difficult to maintain peace on the Korean Peninsula without China's involvement. This is one of the reasons why South Korea is willing to hold a "2+2" dialogue with China.
The simultaneous action of China and Russia in the north and south of the Korean Peninsula will set the tone for the next development of the situation on the Korean Peninsula and play a balancing role in fanning the flames by the United States. The United States' attempt to create war and tension in China's neighborhood in order to interrupt China's development will inevitably fail.