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According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the domestic PTA spot market fell first and then rose and then fell again last week, and the overall price fluctuated slightly. As of June 23, the average price of PTA market in East China was 5,976 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the beginning of the week.
Since late June, there are restart plans for a number of PTA devices, and the market is expected to continue to increase the abundant supply of PTA, and there is a possibility that downstream polyester will continue to reduce production, strengthening the pressure of PTA oversupply, and the market is worried about PTA demand, and the PTA market fell at the beginning of the week under the weak supply and demand side. However, in the traditional peak demand season, OPEC+ is good for oil prices, and the situation in the Middle East is still tense, crude oil continues to rebound, and costs still have strong support for PTA. In addition, in the later stage, with the significant sales effect of polyester, the start of construction was slightly adjusted, and the rigid demand for PTA was stable.
From the perspective of the market outlook, at the end of the month, PTA restarted production capacity more, and more than 7 million tons of maintenance equipment in the market outlook are planned to be restarted, or will enter the stage of inventory accumulation. At present, the operating rate of the PTA industry is around 88%, and it will further increase as the equipment is restarted one after another.
Recent domestic PTA installations
| Manufacturers | Capacity(10,000 tons/year) | Installation situation |
| Ningbo Taihua | 150 | It was parked on May 23 and is scheduled to restart around June 25 |
| Dongying United | 250 | It will be overhauled on May 6 and restarted on June 21 |
| Pengwei Petrochemical | 90 | It will be parked on September 12, 2023 and will be reopened in mid-June 2024 |
| Sichuan Energy Investment | 100 | It will be parked on April 3, and the restart time is to be determined |
| Zhongtai Petrochemical | 120 | Parking on June 20 for a short period of 7 days, with a restart date to be determined |
| Hengli Huizhou | 250 | It will be overhauled for 14 days on June 11 and is scheduled to restart around June 25 |
EIA data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 2.55 million barrels last week, and refined oil products also showed a pattern of destocking. Coupled with the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, international crude oil futures prices have fluctuated and strengthened as a whole. At present, geopolitical instability still plays a certain positive role in oil prices, and the peak season in North America will stimulate gasoline demand, but it remains to be seen that crude oil continues to rise, and on the whole, crude oil prices are mainly volatile at high levels.
Recently, the demand for downstream polyester products has rebounded in stages, and the industry's start-up has rebounded slightly to more than 88%. The terminal textile market is light, and some weaving and texturing factories plan to shut down and take a holiday after consuming raw materials, and it is expected that downstream weaving and texturing factories will start or decline in the short term. At the end of the month, as the downstream replenishment cycle approaches, some downstream factories may stock up appropriately.
Analysts at the business community believe that the resumption of PTA plant production may continue to grow, which limits the price of PTA. In the future, it is still necessary to pay attention to the implementation of production cuts by downstream polyester factories and changes in crude oil prices.