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According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community: the price of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp has continued to fall recently. As of June 21, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62% compared with the average price of 6,400 yuan/ton on June 16; The average market price of hardwood pulp in Shandong was 5,680 yuan/ton, down 1.73% from the average price of 5,780 yuan/ton on June 16.
Judging from the observation of market changes, the spot price of wood pulp has maintained a downward trend recently. On the supply side, the impact of international strikes has eased, and in the context of replenishment in Europe and the United States, and the inventory pressure of pulp mills is not large, the external quotation continues to be strong, which supports the domestic market.
From the perspective of domestic port data, as of June 20, 2024, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 1.823 million tons, an increase of 1.8% from the previous period. Affected by the general trading sentiment of downstream manufacturers and the atmosphere of just needing to get goods, the speed of pulp consumption is limited, and the inventory shows a trend of accumulation in a narrow range.
On the demand side, the current domestic downstream demand has entered the off-season, the overall transaction improvement of the market is limited, and the local inversion situation still exists. Base paper manufacturers continue to be light, short-term base paper prices are difficult to rise, and the operating load in the factory remains at a median level, so the downstream market has a poor sentiment on the purchase of raw wood pulp, and the support for wood pulp prices is limited.
In terms of futures, the recent price volatility of wood pulp futures has been weak. On June 21, the main contract of pulp futures SP2409 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened at 5,946 yuan/ton, closed at 5,886 yuan/ton, and reached the highest price of 5,956 yuan/ton, down 0.74% daily, with a trading volume of 233,200 contracts and a position of 234,415 contracts.
The wood pulp analyst of the business community believes that at present, the quotation of some external plate pulp in July is flat, which supports the domestic market. However, due to the increase in domestic pulp port inventory, weak downstream demand, and the market is dominated by rigid demand, it is expected that the short-term wood pulp spot price will continue to be weak and volatile.