Source: Xinhuanet
The five-year European Parliament elections came to an end earlier this month, and based on the election results, the leaders of the 27 EU countries and major party groups will form a new EU leadership through a combination of political consultations and parliamentary voting. The political spectrum of the new European Parliament as a whole is further tilted to the right, which will have a severe impact on the ruling bloc of Germany and France, the two major "engines" of the European Union, and the mainstream political parties in Europe will further "bow their heads" to populism in the midst of internal and external troubles, and the new leadership of the EU will also have to embrace conservative politics.
A woman photographs outside the European Parliament building in Brussels, Belgium, on June 6. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Zhao Dingzhe
The two "dragon heads" are very hurt
The results of the European Parliament elections continue to be "right-leaning" as predicted by pre-election polls, and most of the parties that have increased their seats are on the right side of the political spectrum, especially the expansion of the number of seats of far-right parties, which has changed the balance of political power in the European Parliament. The results show that the "old three" – the center-right People's Party caucus, the center-left Socialist Party caucus, and the centrist Renaissance Europe caucus have won 189, 136 and 81 seats respectively, accounting for about 56% of the 720 seats in the European Parliament.
The power of far-right parties has not yet been able to overthrow the dominance of traditional mainstream parties, but they have caused a storm in France and Germany, the leaders of the European Union, and attacked the EU's foundations at the level of key member states.
French President Emmanuel Macron walks out of a polling station after voting in the European Parliament election in the French city of Le Touquet on June 9. Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Frank Boam)
In France, President Emmanuel Macron's Ba'ath Party received less than half the vote of the National Rally led by far-right politician Marine Le Pen. Macron announced the dissolution of the National Assembly and the holding of new elections. However, according to the analysis of public opinion, Macron's seemingly "breaking the kettle" may make the opposing camp overtake, and then give up the position of prime minister.
In Germany, the three parties to the ruling coalition, the SPD, the Greens and the FDP, all suffered defeats, and Chancellor Olaf Scholz's SPD Party in particular received a record low number of votes. By contrast, the SPD's old rival, the Coalition, won more than twice as much of the vote, while the far-right AfD jumped two percentage points higher, jumping to second place.
Voters cast their ballots at a polling station in Berlin, Germany, on June 9. Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Inaki Esnaura)
The German Press TV channel commented that voters have issued a "death certificate" to the "traffic light" ruling coalition, and Scholz ruled out the option of early elections only with the intention of "fooling around and waiting for the crisis to end". The SPD has lost 40% of voter support, and many SPD MPs are already planning to let Scholz give up his 2025 re-election bid.
Who is the leader of the three major institutions
According to the election results, a new EU leadership will be elected. Candidates for key positions have been discussed at the informal meeting of EU leaders on the 17th of this month, and the candidates are expected to be finalized before the EU summit on June 27.
These are the provisional results of the elections taken on June 10 at the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Zhao Dingzhe
In accordance with procedure and practice, the presidency of the Council of Europe is directly nominated by the leaders; The position of President of the European Commission is agreed upon by the leaders of each country and the leaders of the major political parties, and must be approved by a vote of the new European Parliament; Each EU member state recommends a candidate to serve as a member of the European Commission, and the President of the European Commission assigns the position, but the more important positions, such as the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, are generally selected by EU leaders through consultation; The President of the European Parliament is elected directly in Parliament.
The race for the presidency of the European Commission has attracted much attention. Since 2014, the European Commission presidency has been run under the practice of the "lead candidate" system, i.e. the "lead candidate" nominated by the party with the most votes or the party group capable of forming the largest coalition should be nominated to the presidency of the Commission. The People's Party caucus has named the current President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, as the "leading candidate". Based on the current statements of many leaders, von der Leyen is now highly recognized in the EU and has no strong competitors, so there is a great hope of re-election.
On June 9, in Brussels, Belgium, Manfred Weber of the European People's Party group gave a speech at the European Parliament. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Zhao Dingzhe
No one has yet officially expressed a candidacy for the presidency of the European Council. Former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, former Portuguese Prime Minister Costa and others are seen as potential candidates. Yan Shaohua, an associate researcher at the Center for China-EU Relations at Fudan University, believes that Draghi's expertise in the economic field will help the EU achieve its goal of improving competitiveness, but from the perspective of partisan wrestling, it would be more reasonable for the president of the European Commission to come from the People's Party group and the President of the European Council to come from the Socialist group. Judging from the recent trend of public opinion within the European Union, the voice of Costa, supported by the Socialist Party caucus, is relatively high.
As for the President of the European Parliament, the People's Party caucus announced its support for the re-election of the current Speaker of the Maltese Parliament, Metzola. If the PP group takes over the two positions of President of the European Commission and President of the European Parliament, and the Socialist group holds the presidency of the European Council, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy could be the third largest group. At present, Estonian Prime Minister Kallas, who belongs to the Renaissance Europe group and has a tough attitude towards Russia, is expected to succeed Borrell as "EU Foreign Minister".
On June 9, in Brussels, Belgium, von der Leyen, the "leading candidate" of the European People's Party group, delivered a speech at the European Parliament. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Zhao Dingzhe
The party and the caucus are fighting for turf
Von der Leyen's nomination for a second term as president of the European Commission must be approved by a majority vote in the European Parliament. Previously, von der Leyen had drawn resentment from the center-left camp by making overtures to the right-wing conservative and reform caucus for fear of insufficient support. Now that the People's Party group has won a big victory in the European Parliament elections, von der Leyen has chosen to send an alliance invitation to the other two mainstream parties, the Bazard Europe and the Socialist Party.
As the mainstream parties approach, the fragmentation of the more "right" camp remains severe. The Conservative and Reform caucus now has 83 seats, surpassing the Renaissance Europe caucus. The two sides are still trying to get the newly elected MPs to join their camp, and it is still difficult to decide who will be the third largest party group in the European Parliament until the final results are released on the 26th. The conservative and reform caucus is led by Italian Prime Minister Meloni's Brotherhood party, which won a resounding victory, and Meloni has the confidence to bargain with Macron's Risorgath Europe group for key EU decision-making positions for his camp.
In the early morning of June 10, Italian Prime Minister Meloni delivered a speech in Rome, Italy. Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Alisa Lingria)
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban told the media that Meloni's Brothers party and Le Pen's National Alliance won at the same time, but failed to form a super-large right-wing group, which was a loss for the right-wing party. Fidesz Orban, led by Orban, has also been in a state of "no belonging" within the European Parliament since it broke away from the BJP group.
However, unlike the parliaments of the EU member states, the European Parliament does not have a strict "common advance" relationship, but a relatively loose cooperative relationship. A caucus can work with a partner caucus on one issue and a rival caucus on another. Under this loose mechanism, right-wing and far-right parties expand their seats, newly elected parliamentarians will demand that legal provisions be added or rejected according to their own interests, and mainstream parties may also cater to some of the far-right demands in order to increase the chances of passing bills, so that the European Parliament as a whole will "turn to the right".
Vehicles pass the European Commission building in Brussels, Belgium, June 3 (file photo). Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Zhao Dingzhe
Analysts believe that the rise of the right wing and the ebb of the Green Party will lead to a slowdown in the pace of the EU's green transformation in the future, and even a "regression" to some extent. The EU's determination and strength to "aid Ukraine and oppose Russia" may also be softened, because right-wing parties usually emphasize national sovereignty and prioritize domestic issues over international affairs, which is more likely to push the EU to reduce political, financial and military aid to Ukraine.
Right-wing parties also often question the effectiveness of EU sanctions against Russia, worrying about the cost of "weaning off Russian energy dependence", so they may push the EU to ease sanctions, slow the pace of "de-Russification", and may also push for negotiations with Russia for a diplomatic solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. These propositions are inconsistent with the official position of the European Union, and after the new European Parliament takes office, it is expected that there will be more debates and confrontations around the policy of "aiding Ukraine and opposing Russia".
(Participating reporters: Li Jizhi, Wen Xinnian, Wang Ziqiang, Zhang Zhang)
(Source: Xinhuanet)