Historically, few small countries like the Philippines have been able to remain unscathed after taking the initiative to provoke trouble against a big country. However, China's spirit of "valuing peace" has given rise to unrealistic ideas in the Philippines that its tactics have worked in the South China Sea and continue to "jump into the minefield".
On June 17, the Philippines took a more aggressive step in the South China Sea, even trying to let special combat personnel carry guns into the waters of Ren'ai Jiao, only to be taken down by the Chinese coast guard on the spot, and several of the Philippine special combat personnel were accidentally injured. With China exercising restraint, the Philippines sending troops to trespass on Ren'ai Jiao is tantamount to aggravating the South China Sea issue and escalating it from a dispute to a military confrontation or even a conflict.
Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad expressed concern about the Philippines' death. On June 23, Mahathir Mohamad said in an interview: Although the United States is not a country in the South China Sea, it likes to incite confrontation between countries, and even "lead" countries to war, as happened between Ukraine and Russia, and the Philippines does not want to go to war with China because he is incapable, and the Philippines needs to be vigilant against the incitement of countries outside the South China Sea.
Even Mahathir Mohamad can see that the United States wants to manipulate the Philippines to fight a "proxy war", will Philippine President Marcos Jr. not see it? However, Marcos Jr. ignored China's repeated warnings and dissuasions, as if "if China doesn't fight the Philippines, I won't be done", which makes people feel that "Marcos Jr. is a reckless man".
In fact, Marcos Jr., as an elite cultivated by a Philippine political family, must have an IQ above the human average, what kind of goods is the United States, Marcos Jr. actually knows very well, the reason why Marcos Jr.'s father was ousted back then has a lot to do with the United States' choice to stand by and watch, Marcos Jr. knows very well that the United States is a master of crossing the river and demolishing bridges. But Marcos Jr. still chooses to provoke China on the South China Sea issue, is it because the anti-China sentiment in the Philippines is too inflated?
In fact, before Marcos Jr. came to power, the situation was the opposite. The South China Sea crisis in 2016 completely woke up the Philippines and made the whole country realize that there is no chance of winning a confrontation with China in the South China Sea, and even the US aircraft carrier fleet has retreated. Therefore, after Duterte came to power in 2016, he began to fully restore relations with China, and even publicly said that the "South China Sea arbitration" is a piece of waste paper. It is better to seize the time to restore relations with China.
However, after Marcos Jr. came to power, he chose a "masochistic" way to provoke the anger of the Filipinos, that is, he sent people to trespass on Ren'ai Jiao and Scarborough Shoal again and again, and then was driven away by the Chinese coast guard again and again. Although the Chinese coast guard's law enforcement methods have been quite restrained, it cannot resist the Philippine government's use of malicious editing and other methods to create a false impression that "China is bullying the Philippines". At this time, the Philippine government brainwashed the Filipinos through public opinion propaganda, giving the Filipinos a false impression that "China is pressing forward step by step in the South China Sea".
In the case of feeling that the Philippines has "no way to retreat", the Filipinos naturally have an impulse of "it is better to fight horizontally and vertically, it is better to fight". But Marcos Jr., who is the initiator, why did he push the Philippines into the fire pit? Because Marcos Jr. is ostensibly the president who serves the Philippines, but his real identity is an agent who serves the interests of the United States. Marcos Jr. spent a considerable part of his life in the United States, where his father took refuge and eventually died. Marcos Jr., who grew up in this environment, how much affection will he have for the Philippines?
From the very beginning, Marcos Jr. implemented the plan with the mentality of "forcing China to fight the Philippines", the Philippines did not want to start a war with China, but Marcos Jr., as an agent of the United States, wanted to push the Philippines into the fire pit. Once China uses force in the South China Sea and triggers a conflict between China and the Philippines, Marcos Jr.'s task will be accomplished, and the United States can use the issue to meddle in the South China Sea issue or pull a group of allies to sanction China, and ASEAN's relationship with China will also become tense.
As for Marcos Jr., he has already left a way out for himself and his family, and even if the United States gives up on the Philippines in the future, it will be a big deal for him to run back to the United States to continue to take refuge, and let his pro-China sister be responsible for repairing relations with China. If he wins the bet, Marcos Jr. will be the "national hero" of the Philippines.