June is coming to an end, in the domestic pig and grain market, among them, after the pig price continues to decline, by the change in sentiment at the breeding end, the pig price stopped falling and rising, but the rebound is still facing multiple pressures, and the rise may be difficult to sustain! In the grain market, the rise of corn is under pressure, the market is affected by the increase in grain sources, and enterprises follow the market, and the price is slightly weak. In the wheat market, wheat prices continue to be strong! The specific analysis is as follows:
Pig market: from the data, on June 26, the price of pigs in the three yuan was 17.52 yuan / kg, up 0.17 yuan, the north and south markets, pig prices showed a trend of most of the rise, in some areas, pig prices rebounded 0.3 ~ 0.4 yuan / kg, pig prices fell into the rise!
On the one hand, the phased sentiment guidance support, the resistance of the breeding end to the price reduction and slaughter sentiment has become stronger, the enthusiasm of retail investors and large-scale pig enterprises to subscribe has weakened, the number of pigs slaughtered has shrunk, the pace of slaughtering enterprises has slowed down, and the difficulty of procurement has increased; On the other hand, due to the enthusiasm of Eryu to enter the market at a low price, after the sharp drop in pig prices in the stage, the market's bullish sentiment has become stronger again, and in the northern region, the phenomenon of Eryu entering the market has increased, which has further supported the rise in pig prices!
However, I personally believe that the rise in pig prices is difficult to sustain, and the market fundamentals are bearish! In particular, the phased pork consumption lacks substantial negatives, the downstream orders of mainstream slaughtering enterprises are few, the operating rate is at a low level, and the consumption capacity of pig sources is poor! The breeding end of the fence is difficult to sustain, the north and south regions, the biosecurity risk of pig farms has surged, the breeding end of the passive slaughter phenomenon is more, the market lacks the operation of continuous shrinkage and price increase, from the grassroots feedback, in the northern region, after the breeding end of the short price, the supply of social pig sources has increased, the difficulty of slaughtering enterprises has weakened, and the pig price may show a trend of rising and falling!
Wheat market: At present, the wheat market is showing a bottoming trend, but the rise is facing greater pressure, and the market stalemate and shock trend will gradually emerge after the quotation of milling enterprises for a short time!
It is understood that from the perspective of purchase and sales feedback, at present, the surplus grain of grassroots farmers is loose, the enthusiasm of growers to sell grain is average, the supply of low-price grain sources in the market is reduced, and the procurement cost of grassroots grain stations has increased! On the demand side, the grain storage and the grain depot wheat rotation demand is strong, the policy wheat listed price is sideways at about 1.25 yuan / catty, and in the channel and milling enterprises, the willingness to build a warehouse is general, and the milling enterprises are mainly based on the market, in particular, the current flour purchase and sales are in the off-season, the raw grain consumption level of milling enterprises is low, and the construction of the warehouse is cautious!
According to institutional analysis, from the perspective of market feedback, in Shandong, Hebei and Henan, wheat quotations maintained a stable and strong trend, and wheat rose by 0.5~1 points; Among them, the price of wheat in Shandong is 1.225~1.27 yuan/jin; Hebei wheat price in 1.23 ~ 1.24 yuan / catty; Henan wheat price is 1.23~1.255 yuan / catty!
At present, the wheat market maintains a volatile upward trend, however, the pressure of strong supply and weak demand in the market is highlighted. However, due to the abundant surplus grain at the grassroots level, the import of wheat has increased significantly, and on the demand side, the channels are mostly with the harvest, and the milling enterprises are mostly on the market, and the wheat warehouse is relatively cautious, and in the short term, the price of wheat may remain at 1.25 yuan / catty around the narrow range!
Corn market: Recently, due to the tight corn supply pattern, the temperature in Northeast China continues to be low and affects the growth of new crop corn. However, the stage market is still facing some pressure!
On the one hand, in the Northeast region, the rotation of corn in grain reserves has increased, the corn consumption of local feed enterprises is insufficient, the inventory of mainstream enterprises is safe, the support for corn price increases is limited, and the purchase and sales are showing a double low situation;
On the other hand, in North China and the Huanghuai region, the channel has the operation of high delivery, the local feed enterprises have the phenomenon of new wheat procurement and feed, the downstream products of deep processing enterprises are not good, the DDSG quotation is lowered, and the price of soybean meal is lower, which also inhibits the performance of demand follow-up, and the company maintains the operation of quotation according to volume!
According to the feedback from the grassroots, in the northeast region, the corn quotation is stable and strong, among them, the price of Longfeng corn, Jingliang Longjiang, Heilongjiang Daqing Yipin rose by 0.5 points, and the mainstream corn price was 1.145~1.225 yuan/jin; In Shandong, the arrival of deep processing has increased, enterprises have purchased on demand, and corn quotations have fluctuated downward, among them, Zaozhuang Hengren, Linyi Qixing Lemon, Yishui Dadi, Heze Chengwu, Dazecheng Biology, Zou Cheng Xilai, corn quotations fell 0.3~0.5 points, Binzhou Xiangchi Jianyuan, Yucheng Bowling Bao rose 0.5 points, and Shandong mainstream corn quotation was 1.18~1.27 yuan / catty!