According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the mainland's population has shown a negative growth trend for two consecutive years in 2023, with a total fertility rate of about 1.0, which is the second-lowest among the world's major economies and only slightly higher than South Korea.
In 2023, the annual birth population in mainland China will be 9.02 million, a decrease of 540,000 from 2022, and the birth rate will be 6.39 per thousand; The number of deaths was 11.1 million, the mortality rate was 7.87 per thousand, and the natural population growth rate was -1.48 per thousand. The continuation of this trend has undoubtedly brought profound challenges and tests to the mainland's economic and social development.
Since the implementation of the family planning policy in the 70s of the last century, the demographic structure of the mainland has undergone tremendous changes. The total fertility rate fell from about 6 before the 1970s, to about 2 in 1990, and then to about 1.5 after 2010. After entering the 21st century, especially in recent years, with the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy and the introduction of the three-child policy, although the policy level has been relaxed, the actual effect has not met expectations. The number of births has declined for seven consecutive years since 2017, and the number of births in 2023 will be 9.02 million, a decrease of 540,000 from 2022 and a new record low.
At the same time, the mainland's three major trends of aging, declining birthrate, and non-marriage are accelerating. The proportion of the elderly population is rising, the labor force is decreasing, and the social dependency ratio is continuing to rise, which has brought great pressure to the public service system such as pension, medical care, and education. The continued sluggish fertility rate has not only exacerbated the demographic imbalance, but also had a profound impact on economic growth and social stability.
In the face of this grim situation, experts, scholars and all sectors of society have called for greater adjustment of the birth policy to cope with the challenges brought about by negative population growth. They pointed out that the adjustment of the birth policy is an important part of the supply-side structural reform, and is of great significance for promoting the long-term balanced development of the population and achieving sustainable economic and social development.
First of all, it is necessary to fully liberalize and encourage childbearing. In 2016, the mainland began to implement a comprehensive two-child policy. But realistically, the effectiveness is limited. The government should further relax birth restrictions, remove restrictions on the number of births, and introduce a series of policies and measures to encourage childbirth, such as providing maternity allowances, extending maternity leave, and reducing the cost of childcare, so as to reduce the burden of family childbirth and increase fertility intentions.
Second, it is necessary to strengthen propaganda and education and guide people to establish a correct concept of childbearing. According to the data of the seventh national census, the population aged 60 and above in mainland China has reached 264 million, accounting for 18.7% of the total population. This proportion is expected to rise to nearly one-third by 2050. By then, 1 in 3 people will be elderly. Through the media, schools, communities and other channels, it is necessary to popularize population knowledge, publicize fertility policies, guide people to realize the importance of childbirth to individuals, families and society, and increase fertility willingness and fertility levels.
In addition, it is also necessary to strengthen the construction of the public service system and improve the level of maternity security. The government should increase investment in public services such as medical care, education, and childcare, improve the quality of services, reduce service costs, and provide families with better maternity protection and child-rearing environments.
At the same time, it is also necessary to pay attention to the impact of the trend of non-marriage on society. With the development of society and the change of attitudes, more and more young people choose not to get married or marry later. Although this is a free choice for individuals, it also has an impact on social stability and family structure. Therefore, the government and all sectors of society should strengthen education and guidance on young people's outlook on marriage and love, and help them establish a correct outlook on marriage and love and family.
The population issue has a bearing on the rise and fall of the country and the future of the nation. In the face of the challenges and opportunities brought about by negative population growth, we must attach great importance to them and take practical and effective measures to deal with them. By intensifying the adjustment of the birth policy, strengthening publicity and education, and improving the public service system, we will certainly be able to promote the long-term balanced development of the population and achieve sustainable economic and social development.