"The Chinese people had 15 trillion yuan in savings last year, and if one-third of this money is used for consumption, buying houses, and decorating, China's economy will be able to recover."
This is a sentence said by Meng Xiaosu, the former chairman of China Real Estate Group.
As soon as this remark came out, it set off a wave of discussion in this society, and many people were angered by this sentence.
Meng Xiaosu has also frequently been on the hot search list because of this, and he has really become a celebrity.
But is that phrase good or bad?
Nowadays, the overall trend of the home buying market is only rising and not falling, and high housing prices have become a way for many wealthy people to store their funds.
This has led to an increase in housing prices, which has increased the burden of ordinary families to buy a house, and many people have taken out loans just to buy high-priced houses.
The general trend of society, the cruel truth
The home buying market is now showing significant features and trends.
From the perspective of purchase volume, the transaction volume of second-hand low-cost houses in many first- and second-tier cities has risen sharply recently, and the market heat is directly benchmarked against more affordable second-hand houses.
More intuitively, for example, the amount of second-hand housing required in first-tier cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou is already an amount that ordinary people cannot afford.
The contributors to the volume, almost all of whom had the funds or loans to buy, contributed to the increase.
According to the data, from June 1 to 15, Beijing time, 5,961 sets of second-hand housing statistics were signed online, an increase of 17% over the same period last month;
In the first half of June of the same year, a total of 12,391 second-hand houses were signed online, an increase of 73% over the same period last month. These numbers are a visual indication of how active the market is.
This has led to today's embarrassing situation, with economic and social pressures increasing dramatically.
Economic pressure is the most immediate.
The continuous rise in housing prices has made many young people feel that the threshold for buying a house is getting higher and higher.
Especially in first-tier cities, housing prices are high, and down payments and monthly payments are a lot of expenses.
Many young people need a loan to achieve their dream of buying a home, but it also means they will have to bear the burden of repayment for decades to come.
Societal pressures cannot be ignored either.
In China, buying a home is often seen as a symbol of social status and a necessary condition for major life events such as marriage and childbirth.
As a result, many young people are facing expectations and pressures from family, relatives, friends, etc., and have to make buying a home an important goal for themselves.
For many more people, it is difficult to even make a down payment, and owning an urban home of their own has almost become an unattainable dream.
Expert advice, data support
Meng Xiaosu used his unique ideas to continuously promote the reform of the housing system.
Through relevant professional ideas, it has played an important role in the development of the real estate industry in mainland China.
As the leader of the housing system reform research group, he has made indelible contributions to the social housing reform policy, and is a veritable real estate expert, known as the "father of China's real estate".
How can such a person's remarks about real estate be unprovoked.
And it was his remarks that pushed him to the forefront of public opinion like never before, but it all seemed to be in his own plan for the new era.
Advocate that people use one-third of their entire assets to buy houses.
This sentence has shattered many people's illusions and frustrated many people's confidence.
He has held important positions in a number of well-known real estate companies.
Holding shares in many companies, there are high profit dividends every year, high level and high salary, but it still lightly encourages people to continue to buy houses, isn't this making "black money".
Many netizens broke their defenses because of this, and they even scolded him.
Is it really to constantly exploit the people and damage the image of their own servants of the people in order to get more huge profits?
Meng Xiaosu then analyzed the real estate data of mainland China in recent years.
According to the data, real estate sales in 2022 will be about 13.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 5 trillion yuan compared with last year!
The huge drop in the number of home purchase transactions has obviously had a huge impact on the mainland real estate market economy.
And a third of this result is also the accurate market vacancy he calculated based on data from 2022 and 2021.
If the people really spend one-third of the amount to buy a house, it will indeed be able to fill the vacancy of the downward impact, and at the same time, the difficulties encountered by the mainland real estate market will naturally be solved.
Social trends, contradictory views
Contemporary society has many different views on Meng Xiaosu's remarks.
These views are mainly due to the implications of Meng's remarks, the uncertain development of the current real estate market, and the economic and living conditions of young people.
First of all, Meng Xiaosu's remarks mainly focused on encouraging young people to buy houses, restoring market expectations, and increasing the construction of affordable housing.
Young people's reactions to these suggestions were mixed, with those supporting and those not supporting.
Some young people are supportive, believing that buying a home is an important way to achieve asset appreciation and ensure quality of life.
They agreed with Meng Xiaosu's view that the abolition of the purchase restriction policy can stimulate market vitality and promote the stable development of the real estate market.
At the same time, they also hope to build wealth by buying a house and lay a solid foundation for their future life.
And more young people are cautious about buying a home.
They believe that current housing prices are too high for them to afford. Even if the purchase restriction policy is lifted, they will still find it difficult to bear the high housing prices and mortgage pressure.
In addition, some young people are also concerned about the market risks and liquidity issues they may face after buying a home.
At the same time, some optimistic young people believe that the recovery of market expectations is of great significance to stabilizing the real estate market.
They agree with Meng Xiaosu that the real estate market can only develop healthily when market expectations are stable.
At the same time, they also hope that the government will take more measures to stabilize market expectations and promote the smooth operation of the real estate market.
It is essential, and there are also some young people who are pessimistic about the recovery of market expectations.
They believe that there is already a serious bubble problem in the current real estate market, and it will be difficult to completely eliminate it even if the government takes measures.
In addition, they are concerned that excessive government intervention in the market could lead to market failures and resource distortions.
It can be seen that young people have a variety of opinions on Meng Xiaosu's remarks, reflecting their concerns and worries about the real estate market, as well as their economic conditions and living needs.
Therefore, the government should fully consider the interests and needs of young people when formulating real estate market policies, so as to promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market.
Shift clarification, obscure facts
After many frequent hot searches, Meng Xiaosu hurriedly clarified that he meant to encourage people with funds and ability to buy houses, rather than forcing and ridiculing people without funds to buy houses.
He also clarified that his main meaning is that if the real estate market wants to recover quickly, it will need about 5 trillion yuan, and this figure is exactly about 1/3 of the increase in people's capital reserves.
This is just a general metaphor derived from data, not a specific requirement, let alone a purpose or intent.
At the same time, he admits that his views have been misunderstood or over-interpreted by many media and the public, and most people only hear the first half of the sentence and do not really understand the full logic behind it.
And this clarification did not convince everyone, and there are still many who believe that it is just his "dying throes" and not really meaningful clarifications.
Depending on the development trend, the view is different
And this is not just the case with this one specialist.
Professor Dong Fan, director of the Real Estate Research Center of Beijing Normal University, also put forward his own views.
He believes that if young people want to afford a house, they need to take out loans, adjust loan repayment measures, reduce the proportion of down payments, and other measures.
He even published:
"Young people will work for 30 or 40 years in the future, but why can't loans be given for 40 years if they are only given for 30 years?" Questioning.
He suggested that we should effectively help young people solve the problem of buying houses through policy research, rather than blindly questioning or nonsensical and useful theoretical suggestions, and he really put forward suggestions to solve the problems of young people and suppress the real estate market from the perspective of young people.
Nowadays, there are several different trends in the current home buying market.
The policy environment continues to be optimized, market supply and demand are gradually balanced, price trends are stable, and the operating pressure of real estate enterprises continues.
Since 2024, the real estate policy has continued to be relaxed, including the relaxation or cancellation of restrictive measures such as purchase restrictions and sales restrictions, as well as the reduction of mortgage interest rates and down payment ratios.
These policy adjustments are aimed at lowering the threshold for buying a home and stimulating market demand.
At the same time, supportive policies have increased, with the central government emphasizing the status of real estate as a "pillar industry" and proposing further optimization policies, including increasing financial support for the construction of affordable housing.
These policies are conducive to building a new model of real estate development and stabilizing market expectations.
In some cities, the price of new homes has risen, driven by the entry of improved real estate into the market.
On the whole, the momentum of housing price growth is insufficient, and the phenomenon of exchanging price for volume in the market is more common.
Second-hand housing prices continued to adjust, and the month-on-month decline in prices in some cities narrowed.
The operating pressure of real estate enterprises is still large, and some real estate companies are facing problems such as debt default and unfinished buildings.
With market adjustment and policy support, some real estate companies that control the scale of investment and debt and have sufficient liquidity are expected to continue to survive.
Although the policy environment has improved, the operating pressure of real estate enterprises is still greater. In the future, real estate companies need to strengthen their own management and optimize their asset structure to cope with market changes.
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