The national football team met Risha Ao in the round of 18, is there a chance?

China News Weekly

2024-06-27 18:01China News Weekly official account

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The draw ceremony for the round of 18 of the 012026 World Cup qualifiers in Asia was held at 3 p.m. on June 27, and the national football team was in Group C with Japan, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Indonesia.

02Due to the increase in the number of teams participating in the 2026 US-Canada-Mexico World Cup to 48 countries, the number of places in the Asian Cup has increased to 8.5, and the promotion path has been broadened in theory, but the strength of the national football team is limited, and the road to return to the World Cup is still difficult.

03 Saudi Arabia has become the biggest variable in the top 18 of the national football team, with strong strength, and the national football team does not have an advantage in the confrontation with it.

04 In addition, the national football team also needs to pay attention to Indonesia and Bahrain in the same group and strive to score points against them.

The first match of the 05 national football team in the round of 18 will be Japan, and after that, they will face strong opponents in a row, and coach Ivankovic needs to determine the tactical arrangement and game mentality as soon as possible.

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At 3 p.m. Beijing time on June 27, the draw ceremony for the top 18 of the 2026 World Cup Qualifiers in Asia was held. The national football team participated in the draw as a team in Pot 5, and finally the national football team was placed in Group C with Japan, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Indonesia.

With the number of teams participating in the 2026 US-Canada-Mexico World Cup increasing to 48 and the number of Asian Cup places increasing to 8.5, the path to qualification seems to have widened theoretically. However, judging from the current strength of the national football team and the situation of the group draw, the road to return to the World Cup is still difficult.

Saudi Arabia became the biggest variable

According to FIFA rules, the top two teams from the three groups in the Asian qualifiers for the World Cup will go straight to the 2026 World Cup finals. In addition, the third and fourth teams in each group will participate in the fourth stage of the Asian region of the World Preliminary Championships.

At this stage, the six participating teams will be divided into two groups for a single round-robin match, with the top team in the group directly qualifying for the 2026 World Cup finals. The two group runners-up will play two legs of home and away matches, with the winners competing in intercontinental play-offs against other continents for a place in the World Cup finals.

The draw for the round of 18 is based on the latest world rankings, and the national football team, ranked 88th in the world, is listed as a team in Pot 5 along with Palestine and Kyrgyzstan.

Iranian football legend Madavecchia draws China into Group C Picture/video screenshot

In the latest world rankings, the most noticeable change for Asian teams is that Saudi Arabia, which was previously ranked sixth, and Iraq, who were ranked seventh, swapped places. As a result, Iraq is in Pot 2 and Saudi Arabia is in Pot 3.

In terms of absolute strength, Saudi Arabia and Iraq are indistinguishable, and after falling to the third pot, they become the strongest teams in the same bracket. From the point of view of the draw group, whether it is the traditional strong team or other teams that are expected to impact the World Cup due to the expansion of the World Cup, meeting Saudi Arabia is the worst situation.

Judging from the record of the previous 20 years, the national football team and Saudi Arabia have a total of 6 confrontations, and the national football team has the upper hand with 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses, and the last time the national football team won Saudi Arabia was in the 2015 Asian Cup.

Of course, the appearance of Saudi Arabia is also not so wonderful for the two strong teams in the same group, Japan and Australia, because of the emergence of Saudi Arabia, Japan and Australia may be "killers" in their own obvious advantage games, and strive to win while getting more goal difference, in order to rank in the top two of the group and directly enter the World Cup.

Soft persimmons are not soft

For the national football team, it is not easy to win or score points from Japan, Australia, and Saudi Arabia. Whether it can benefit from other teams in the group is an important issue that the national football team needs to think about.

The other two opponents of the national football team in the same group, Indonesia and Bahrain, it is also difficult for the national football team to eat 100% of the opponent. Judging from the world rankings, Indonesia, which is ranked 88th in the world and wins 134th, should be like a treasure trove.

But in fact, according to CCTV reports, Indonesia has adopted the ultimate naturalized player route, in the past six months or so, the number of Indonesian naturalized internationals has exceeded 11, and 7 of the starters have Dutch nationality, and most of them are from the second and third leagues in Europe, and the age structure is also ideal. Judging from the Indonesian lineup, in addition to the lack of forwards, the configuration of the back and midfield has been quite perfect.

The last time the national football team met Indonesia in a major tournament was in the 2013 Asian Cup qualifiers, and the two teams have not faced each other in the 11 years since. Although the national football team is significantly ahead of Indonesia in terms of historical record, and the last time it lost to Indonesia was in 1957, judging from the current Indonesian practice of naturalizing players, it is not easy for the national football team to easily control Indonesia.

For the national football team, Bahrain may be a more acceptable opponent than Indonesia, although in the previous 7 meetings, the national football team has achieved an unbeaten record of 3 wins and 4 draws, but from the current grouping, the national football team can not be satisfied with the draw with Bahrain, whether it can get 6 points from Bahrain, or will directly affect the prospects of the national football team.

First against Japan, then Saudi Arabia

According to the schedule, the national football team will play away against Japan and Saudi Arabia at home in the first two rounds of matches in September this year. Heading into October, the schedule is no easy either. The national football team will play Australia away from home and then Indonesia at home. In November, the national football team will take on Bahrain away from home, followed by Japan at home. After that, the team will usher in a longer adjustment period, and in March and June 2025, the national football team will play four more games, which are away against Saudi Arabia, home against Australia, away against Indonesia and home against Bahrain.

After the start of the round of 18, the national football team will take the lead in fighting with the three strongest opponents in the group, and face strong opponents in a row, which will cause great difficulties for the national football team in terms of technical and tactical arrangements and psychological adjustments.

In the preparation period ahead, the ongoing Chinese Super League and FA Cup will provide the international players with better game form and physical reserves, but at the same time, they will also lay hidden dangers for athletes' injuries. For the national football team, which is not rich in squad depth, how to avoid injuries while maintaining his form in the next two months must be something that coach Ivankovic is worried about.

National football coach Ivankovic Photo/China News Service Yu Haiyang

Judging from the recently concluded World Preliminaries, the national football players and coach Ivankovic are still running in, Ivankovic is gradually understanding his group of players, and is gradually giving up some of the tactical arrangements he insisted on before. Judging from the current strength of the national football team, it is not enough to support the setting of multiple sets of tactical lineups to deal with different opponents, so what kind of tactical arrangement and game mentality to choose in the end is something that Ivankovic needs to determine as soon as possible.

In fact, this year's group is almost the same group as the last top 12 for the national football team, the former Oman and Vietnam have become Bahrain and Indonesia, and Japan, Australia and Saudi Arabia were in the same group as the national football team at that time.

Everyone knows the rest of the story, in the Qatar World Cup, Saudi Arabia won Argentina, Japan defeated Germany, and Australia defeated Denmark......

4 years have passed, and the old opponents are back, does the national football team still have a chance?

Author: Hu Kefei

Editor: Hu Yun

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