Rice bran market: Recently, the domestic rice bran market has shown a downward trend, but at the end of the second quarter, the market has risen prominently, and the enthusiasm for purchase and sales has become stronger!
According to the analysis of the institution, previously, by the soybean meal price down, the bran market deteriorated, the performance of rice bran meal continued to be sluggish, enterprises passively reduced the operating rate, the supply pattern gradually declined, after entering the Dragon Boat Festival, the market purchase and sales heat has rebounded, some enterprises have increased the number of receipts, and the price has gradually become stronger, among them, in the Heilongjiang region, the price of rice bran meal rose 14.5% in the month, up 1580 yuan / ton, and some enterprises in Anhui rose to 1600 yuan / ton, up about 8% in the month!
Personally, the price of rice bran meal is strong, on the one hand, due to the continuous loss of enterprises, in order to alleviate the pressure, the operating rate of mainstream enterprises continues to decline, and the inventory of rice bran meal is also relatively low. On the other hand, as a feed raw material, recently, due to the low operating rate of flour enterprises, the bran inventory bottomed out, the price of mixed bran continued to rise, the price of mixed bran in many places in Shandong rose to 0.85 yuan / catty, the price of mixed bran in many places in Hebei rose to 0.8 yuan / catty, the price of bran and rice bran meal is almost the same price, the cost performance has declined, and the enthusiasm of the market to purchase rice bran meal has increased, which has led to the strengthening of prices!
However, from a rational point of view, as the price of soybean meal continues to be under pressure, the breeding industry is not sluggish, the number of live pigs has declined sharply, and the demand for feed consumption has increased slowly, and the room for price increase may be relatively limited!
Urea market: In recent days, urea spot has shown a strong trend, from the latest feedback, many domestic enterprises have raised the range of 20~40 yuan/ton, and the market has shown a continuous rise!
The logic that supports the price increase of urea, on the one hand, due to India's bidding for the purchase of urea, which stimulates the bullish sentiment in the domestic market! On the other hand, due to the high temperature and hot weather, the operating rate of urea enterprises is weak, the machine failure rate is frequent, the average daily output of urea is about 171,400 tons, the recovery of some enterprises is slow, and the inventory level of enterprises is relatively low!
Superimposed, the demand side is relatively positive, the demand for agricultural fertilizer in the Northeast market still exists, and North China and the Huanghuai region will also enter the stage of corn topdressing, and the demand for downstream traders to purchase and stock is increasing! However, the demand for industrial fertilizer is general, and recently, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has been declining, and most of the enterprises are mainly based on just need to replenish stocks!
Therefore, based on many factors in the market, the short-term market will still be strong, from the latest feedback, in Shandong, the price of small granular urea is 2270~2300 yuan, up 20~30 yuan/ton; In the Hebei market, the price of small granular urea is 2300~2340 yuan, up 20 yuan/ton; In Anhui, the price of small particles rose by 20~30 yuan, and the execution price was 2300~2330 yuan/ton; In Shanxi, the price of small particles is 2180~2260 yuan/ton, up 10~20 yuan/ton......
Refined oil market: It is understood that at 24 o'clock this Thursday (0 o'clock on June 28), domestic refined oil ushered in a price adjustment node!
According to institutional analysis, in terms of international crude oil, due to the extension of OPEC+'s voluntary production cut measures to the end of September, the crude oil supply pattern remained tight before that. Moreover, recently, the geopolitical tension has heated up again, following the Palestinian-Israeli issue, the conflict between Israel and Lebanon has also intensified, and the market is worried about the tight energy supply, which has obvious support for the crude oil market!
At the same time, on the demand side, due to the arrival of Independence Day in the United States, the peak of energy demand in the summer will also be gradually realized, and the European economy will take the lead in cutting interest rates, which also boosts the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, and global energy demand may increase significantly!
Therefore, in the short term, the fundamentals of the crude oil market are strong, and in this round of pricing cycle, international oil prices maintain a "unilateral" rising trend, in accordance with the domestic refined oil formation mechanism, the 13th oil price adjustment in 2024, the 10th working day of this round of pricing cycle, referring to the level of crude oil changes, domestic gasoline and diesel prices are estimated to rise by 210 yuan / ton, equivalent to the price of 92/95 gasoline and 0 diesel, etc., a variety of oil quotations or will rise by 0.16 ~ 0.2 yuan!
The rise in oil prices is certain, from 0:00 on June 28, the price of 92 gasoline in Shandong may rise to 7.97 yuan / liter, and 92 gasoline in Beijing has returned to the "8 yuan era".
For the market outlook, the next round of oil prices will be adjusted at 24 o'clock on July 11, based on the support of the crude oil market consumption season, international oil prices have further upward pressure, domestic gasoline and diesel prices or will usher in the "2 consecutive rises" situation, therefore, before this round of oil price adjustment, the price of 92/95 gasoline at gas stations around the country may be the low value before the fourth quarter, everyone go to refuel in advance!