Kweichow Moutai's share price and batch price have both fallen, causing widespread concern.
"The 12-bottle Feitian Moutai will be canceled, the Feitian Moutai unpacking policy will be canceled, and the 15-year-old Moutai and boutique Moutai will be suspended." Recently, some Moutai dealers have received the above news.
But Kweichow Moutai's price stabilization and volume control measures do not stop there. Previously, it suspended the synthetic exercise of Xunfeng's 375ml Moutai digital collection and tightened the supply of 1,499 yuan direct group purchase in some provinces.
In the past two months, Zhang Deqin, chairman of Moutai Group, has also frequently held dealer forums in many places, and also led the team to Hong Kong for research to stabilize market confidence.
In the eyes of the industry, this is a magnification move.
"This measure of controlling the price of goods will bring a positive signal to the market, and at the same time transmit confidence to the channel, and the transaction price of Moutai is expected to stop falling and rising." Indeed, as Xiao Zhuqing, an independent commentator on China's liquor industry, said, market data shows that since the 25th, the wholesale reference price of bulk bottles of Feitian Moutai has begun to rise and has regained its position at 2,200 yuan.
"We knew the news internally before you, and retail prices started to rise two days ago." On the 26th, a clerk at a Moutai sales store in Beijing told a reporter from Zhongxin Financial that a few days ago, the bulk bottle of Moutai could reach 2,300 yuan, and now it needs 2,400 yuan. According to the clerk, customers are also paying attention to the news, and many customers have come to pick up the goods recently.
The rebound in the price of Feitian Moutai has also allowed many Moutai retailers to put their minds at ease. Regarding the previous price drop, the clerk of another Moutai sales store in Beijing told the Zhongxin Financial Reporter that Feitian Pumao has never dropped so low, and the price of a single bottle in 2020 will exceed 3,000 yuan, even if it drops, it will drop to about 2,800 yuan. Some time ago, merchants were selling at a loss, "because they bought the goods at a price of 2,500 or 2,600 yuan, and the price suddenly dropped, so they could only sell at a loss." ”
Moutai has always been a popular commodity in the hands of "scalpers" because of its "financial attributes". The decline in the price of Feitian Moutai has also led to the rapid dilution or even loss of profits of "scalpers". "The market is changing too fast, and I received it a few days ago, and I have already lost hundreds of yuan before it arrives." Recently, a "scalper" in the circle said.
Zhongxin financial reporters combed and found that in April this year, the market price of Feitian Moutai had a wave of decline, and has since rebounded, but it returned to the downward channel in May, and it has fallen rapidly recently. Market data shows that on June 24, the wholesale reference price of bulk bottles Feitian Moutai fell below 2,100 yuan.
In addition to the decline in product prices, Kweichow Moutai's share price has also experienced a correction.
Kweichow Moutai stock price daily K chart.
Zhongxin financial reporter noticed that since May 8, Kweichow Moutai's share price has fallen all the way, and on June 24, the stock price once fell to 1414.01 yuan, during which the total market value shrank by more than 360 billion yuan.
However, after Kweichow Moutai played a "price stabilization combination punch", from June 24 to 27, Kweichow Moutai's share price rose.
Although the price of Moutai has begun to stabilize and rebound recently, there are also many people who doubt whether the price will fall again.
Cai Xuefei, an analyst in the liquor industry, told the Zhongxin financial reporter that the direct trigger for the price shock adjustment of Moutai this time was that the "618" e-commerce platform used low-priced Moutai as a drainage tool, which intensified the contradiction and led to an imbalance between supply and demand.
At the same time, "due to the huge amount of Moutai inventory in the society, the news of price cuts in the Moutai market has caused panic to spread, and some people have begun to sell, resulting in an amplification of supply and a further decline in wine prices." Xiao Zhuqing mentioned.
In addition to speculative factors, from the perspective of the industry, it is currently in the off-season of alcohol consumption, and the strong wait-and-see sentiment of consumers and the weakening of consumption expectations are also a major reason.
As the price anchor of high-end famous liquor, Cai Xuefei believes that Moutai's limited production capacity is still in short supply in the face of China's huge consumer market, and the actual selling price is much higher than Moutai's official guide price, and Moutai's direct sales account for nearly 50%, which are the cornerstones of Moutai's price stability. The decline in product prices will also bring about the expansion of market demand, and before the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, the price of Moutai may soon reach a stable level or even resume a rebound.
Caitong Securities Research Report also believes that this round of Moutai's response measures are relatively cautious and accurate, taking into account the balance between performance and the market, releasing a clear price stabilization signal to dealers and the market, and leaving enough back. "We judge that Moutai's toolbox is still sufficient, such as launching dealer buybacks, phased control of goods, etc., and it is expected that it can still match market changes and make flexible moves."
Source: China News Network
Editor: Xiao Zhang