Author丨Today's Construction Machinery Think Tank
In June 2024, the domestic excavator market is expected to continue to show a significant recovery compared with the same period last year, from the feedback of agents, the market is expected to show an improvement year-on-year, but on the one hand, there is still a large proportion of the agent group pessimistic expectations, on the other hand, the improvement of key indicators such as operating rate and payment rate is still less than expected, which shows that the market is still in the adjustment process of the recovery period, and the heavy pressure on the main body of the channel in the field of industry circulation still needs attention.
1. The domestic market is expected to improve slightly
In June 2024, the domestic excavator market agent group is expected to usher in the highest point this year, different from the pessimistic trend last month, the confidence of agents in the market this month has increased, and the agents who hold the expectation of reduction have improved by 21.46 percentage points compared with the expected trough in February this year. In the medium term, due to the low base of 23 years, the subjective sentiment of agents on the domestic market has improved significantly year-on-year, and it is expected that there will still be a large subjective and objective difference between the subjective sentiment of the market and the market sales.
58.18% of agents expect the domestic market to decline to varying degrees year-on-year in June, a decrease of 9.13 percentage points compared with the expected proportion in the same period in May. 5.45%, 7.27%, 10.91%, 14.55%, 9.09% and 10.91% of agents expect declines of more than 50%, 41%-50%, 31%-40%, 21%-30%, 11%-20% and 0%-10% respectively.
18.18% and 23.64% of agents expect the market to be flat and grow year-on-year in June, an increase of 2.80 and 6.33 percentage points from the previous month.
Figure 1 Comparison of the expected year-on-year growth rate of overall excavator sales in May 2024 and June 2024
2. The market is expected to improve slightly
Compared with the same period in 23, the small excavator market is expected to improve significantly in June, and the proportion of agents who are expected to grow and flat has doubled. 54.55% of the agents expect the domestic small digging market to decline to varying degrees year-on-year in June, a decrease of 6.98 percentage points compared with the expected proportion in the same period in May. There are 1.82%, 3.64%, 10.91%, 7.27%, 9.09%, 14.55% and 7.27% of the agents are expected to decline by 71%-80%, 51%-60%, 41%-50%, 31%-40%, 21%-30%, 11%-20% and 0%-10% year-on-year, respectively.
14.55% and 30.91% of the agents respectively expect the small digging market to be flat and grow year-on-year in June, an increase of 1.09 and 5.91 percentage points from the previous month.
Figure 2 Comparison of the expected year-on-year growth rate of overall sales of small excavators in May 2024 and June 2024
3. The market is expected to stabilize
The domestic medium-sized excavator market in June is expected to be basically consistent with the previous month's expectations, and has improved due to the general trend of the market. 76.36% of the agents expect the domestic digging market to decline to varying degrees year-on-year in June, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points from the previous month. 7.27%, 10.91%, 16.36%, 10.91%, 18.18% and 12.73% of agents are expected to decline by more than 50%, 41%-50%, 31%-40%, 21%-30%, 11%-20% and 0%-10% respectively.
18.18% and 5.4% of agents are expected to be flat and grow year-on-year, an increase of 0.87 percentage points and a decrease of 0.31 percentage points from the previous month.
Figure 3 Comparison of the expected year-on-year growth rate of medium-sized excavator sales in May 2024 and June 2024
4. The big digging market improved slightly
Expectations for the domestic digging market improved in June - the proportion of agents expected to decrease and remain flat decreased, and the proportion of agents expected to increase increased. 74.57% of the agents expect the domestic digging market to decline to varying degrees year-on-year in June, a decrease of 6.23 percentage points from the previous month. 9.09%, 7.27%, 12.73%, 16.36%, 20.00% and 9.09% of agents are expected to decline by more than 50%, 41%-50%, 31%-40%, 21%-30%, 11%-20% and 0%-10% respectively.
14.55% and 10.91% of agents are expected to be flat and grow year-on-year, respectively, a decrease of 0.83 percentage points and an increase of 7.06 percentage points from the previous month.
Figure 4 Comparison of the expected year-on-year growth rate of the overall sales of large excavators in May 2024 and June 2024
5. In the first half of June, the operating rate deteriorated slightly year-on-year
In the first half of June 2024, 29.09% of the surveyed customers had an operating rate of less than 40%, a decrease of 1.82 percentage points from the end of May, while 38.18% and 18.18% of the surveyed customers had an operating rate between 40%-50% and 50%-60%, with the latter decreasing by 1.82 percentage points. 14.55% of the surveyed customers had an equipment operating rate of more than 60%, the same as at the end of May.
In early June, the proportion of high operating rate (more than 70%) was the same as that of the same period last year; The medium and high operating rate (50%-70%) decreased by 1.27 percentage points over the same period of last year, the proportion of low operating rate (below 40%) deteriorated slightly, increasing by 9.09 percentage points over the same period of last year, and the proportion of medium and low operating rate (40%-50%) decreased by 7.82 percentage points.
Figure 5 Comparison of customer equipment utilization rates at the end of May 2024 and early June 2024
6. In early June, the transaction price of large, medium and small diggings improved slightly
In early June 2024, the transaction price of large excavators decreased by 0.60% from the beginning of May, a decrease of 1.38 percentage points from the previous month, the transaction price of medium-sized excavators decreased by 0.16% from the beginning of May, a decrease of 0.94 percentage points from the previous month, and the transaction price of small excavators decreased by 0.56% from the beginning of May, an improvement of 0.69 percentage points from the previous research cycle.
Figure 6 Month-on-month change in domestic excavator prices in June 2024
7. In the first half of June, the inventory situation decreased month-on-month
In early June 2024, the total inventory of channels in the domestic market decreased by about 7% month-on-month. Among them, the average inventory of large excavators above 30T is 8 units; The average inventory of 19-30T medium-sized excavators is 6 units, and the average inventory of small excavators below 19T is 12 units.
8. At the end of May, the overdue repayment of customers deteriorated slightly
At the end of May 2024, the overall overdue amount of customer financing, mortgage or instalment repayment increased by 1.47 percentage points. In the domestic market, the overdue rates of the first installment, the overdue rate of the second installment and the overdue rate of the third installment of financing, mortgage or installment repayment of the surveyed customers were 8.39%, 5.93% and 3.99% on average, respectively.
In June '24, except for the Northeast and Southwest regions, which were expected to be flat, the expectations for customer repayment overdue rates in South China improved slightly, and the expectations for changes in overdue rates in the rest of the regions deteriorated to varying degrees.
9. At the end of May, the customer collection rate and the shift fee deteriorated slightly
At the end of May 2024, the average collection rate of customer equipment engineering was 45.5%, a decrease of 0.52 percentage points from the previous month.
The income of customer equipment was 2.55% year-on-year for large excavators, 1.57% for medium-sized excavators, and 1.21% for small excavators, an increase of 0.47, -0.45 and 0.05 percentage points respectively over the previous month.
Note: The range of excavator models in this article is: small excavator≤ 18.5t, medium excavator 18.5t~28.5t, large excavator ≥28.5t.
"June China Construction Machinery Circulation Market Monitoring Report"
For the full version, please contact China Construction Machinery Market Research Center
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