Text: Whoop Hu
More than 200,000 EQE, half-price BMW i3, and Porsche pure electric Macan forced anti-dealers, and the four major German luxury car brands of BBAP finally fell into a similar situation in China, and no one fell hand in hand.
What do you ask Audi, do you remember the famous scene of a 4S store hanging out the banner "Audi also has pure electric new energy" in 2022?
There is a sluggish high-end consumption, and there is the rise of domestic forces, and the luxury car market is squeezed in the middle by the two forces.
1
More than a year ago, Ben Hu said that "BBA needs to rebuild faith", and the sales trend was not good at that time, but after all, it was first in a special period, and secondly, the high-end market was fine, and only Audi, which was relatively the weakest brand, was obviously affected.
There are no twists and turns now, from the quasi-luxury brand Porsche, to the BBA three backbones, to the so-called second-tier luxury such as Cadillac, and the shocking headline like "The Collapse of the Luxury Car Brand Across the Line" is not even too far from the truth.
If the problems of second-tier luxury brands to Audi and BMW are still a warning signal, then even Mercedes-Benz and Porsche are not immune, marking the last line of defense of traditional luxury car brands has been broken.
This is not surprising, nor does it happen overnight.
In November last year, "Please Beware of Luxury Cars" reminded that the high-end consumer market will take a sharp turn in the second half of 2023, like Porsche, which is still growing in the first two quarters, but there is a double-digit year-on-year decline in the third quarter.
At about the same time, the European luxury good times, which had grown against the trend for three years and once propelled the CEO of LVMH to the throne of the world's richest man, also went out almost instantly.
Unfortunately, the situation shows no signs of improvement so far this year. It has continued until the recent decline in Moutai's stocks and prices, obviously not only in the automobile market, but also in the myth of high-end consumer goods.
Of course, BBAP still has a significant market share, especially in the premium fuel market, and although it may sound like a rumor, it is not really hurting.
But the problem is that that's not how the accounts are counted.
New energy is the absolute trend and frontier of the current automotive industry, although the business performance of luxury car brands is very low dependence on new energy models, but the symbolic significance and extensive impact of the price collapse of these models are not measurable.
Anyone who has listened to the commentary knows that if the pioneer is frustrated, no matter how strong the main force is, it will already lose half of it.
2
The collective extinguishing of BBAP is not only to blame the cooling of the high-end consumption environment, but also to the impact of the rise of domestic forces and the high-end; However, the high-end process of new domestic forces is also being suppressed and slowed down by the cooling of the high-end market.
The BBA seem to be embattled, but their Chinese rivals are not ready.
Until today, it can be said that the domestic models that have successfully stood at a price of more than 500,000 yuan are still close to zero. MEGA aside, ET9 will take a few years and the risk is not small (and ET7 sales figures are difficult to evaluate), looking up to take a longer time to test, ZEEKR brilliance is a high-end customization......
The absolute home of the luxury brand of 500,000-1 million yuan is shrinking with the dimming halo of BBAP, and the BBAP at this price is replaced by high-end products at similar prices by domestic brands - what really eats the share of luxury cars is the much cheaper domestic "flat".
The price of L9 and ES8 is almost half of that of full-size SUVs of luxury brands of the same size and level, and the performance, configuration, and technological advancement are even better than the latter. The progress of domestic brands is of course indisputable, but at the same time, a large part of this success comes from the huge cost-effective advantage.
The logic of competition between non-luxury cars and luxury cars has never changed. In the long years before the rise of new domestic forces, luxury car brands have always used brand value, cultural symbols, structural characteristics and other "old roots" to compete against non-luxury car brands in the same price range of large size, high performance and high configuration.
Even in the broad category of luxury brands, you can find this misplaced competition between the top tier brands such as BBA and the second-tier luxury brands. At the same price point, the weaker side of the brand always uses generosity as a weapon, while the relatively dominant brand can always "sell the brand".
Domestic high-end models are far from high enough, they have shattered the halo of the old era luxury car brands, and pulled millions of luxury cars off the altar. But at the same time, they have not been able to establish a new brand value chain and reap the benefits of the higher price points that BBA was previously entrenched in.
The old luxury car system collapsed, and the new one failed to be built.
On the positive side, it should be noted that the reason why luxury cars will lose their brand halo is due to the advantages of domestic brands in the previously recognized future tracks such as new energy; On the negative side, mutual cause and effect, while the cutting-edge track occupies the leading technology, domestic brands have not found and have no time to find a path to create a brand halo and additional premium.
Of course, it must be pointed out that this is not an individual problem of domestic brands, but the world has not yet found an effective path to support the sale of new energy, especially pure electric vehicles, to the million-level level, and the logic of serving the public, which may be a long process. Domestic brands are at the forefront, and naturally no one can refer to them.
3
For the domestic high-end business, in addition to the changes in the domestic high-end consumption environment, BBA brands have basically completed the first detour - of course, they may not be on the right track, but at least they are aware of their previous mistakes.
Mercedes-Benz has admitted, or disguised, that the EQ series' unique bow body has not been universally recognized; The era of BMW's shared gasoline platform is coming to an end, and the new Neue Klasse is about to emerge; Audi has just undergone a complete change of global CEO and design director in the past year.
An obvious difference is that the R&D iteration speed of traditional brands, including luxury car brands, is much slower than that of domestic brands. BBA's electric series still basically follows the iron law of 7-8 years of generation, while domestic brands may have changed two wheels.
Although slow to learn and slow to change, it's unlikely that BBAs won't learn what we all know – it's just that the process of change manifesting itself will be much slower and less frequent.
After successfully standing at the price of 20-400,000 yuan (maybe higher), the path of domestic brands to continue to be high-end will inevitably require a period of regaining momentum, which will also give BBAs a chance to breathe and adjust and fight again.
Because the changes in the general environment not only (finally) affect the popularity of the high-end consumer market, but also promote the high-end new forces to enter the rhythm of "growth for performance" as soon as possible. Gaohe can't stand alone, the ideal MEGA is unfavorable and L6 is silky, the question world has dropped to more than 200,000 yuan, and Weilai has finally played the Ledao brand, and more than 500,000 yuan will not become the next comfort zone for domestic forces in the short term.
The collapse of the value of existing new energy models will obviously make BBAPs lose their faces, and it will obviously shake the board of directors of each company.
It should also be noted that there is still no substitute for the core price of BBAP, and it is more difficult for domestic brands to continue to impact upward. BBAP needs to think more about how to reshape the faith in electric vehicles, translate the premium, and ensure that the 500,000-1 million yuan market does not shrink, and people have a reason to pay high prices for electric luxury cars again - instead of being replaced by the "Chinese version of BBA".
If you have to ask BBA if he is panicked, he must have panicked, but probably the most panicked time has just passed.