Seventy years ago, on June 28, 1954, Premier Zhou Enlai put forward for the first time the five principles of "mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual non-aggression, non-interference in each other's internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence". In 2024, 70 years have passed since the publication of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence.
Over the past 70 years, the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence have been widely accepted and recognized by all countries in the world and have become the basic norms governing international relations and international law. The concept of building a community with a shared future for mankind is not only the inheritance of the five principles, but also the enrichment, development and sublimation of the original content.
At present, the world has entered a new period of turbulence and change, with regional conflicts prolonged and geopolitical and economic competition intensifying. How to avoid the strategic competition between China and the United States from sliding into an unconscious conflict? What is the situation of securitization in the international economic and trade field? What impact will regional conflicts have on the global balance of power? What is the practical value of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence in this global situation? And how can it really make a difference?
In an exclusive interview with The Paper (www.thepaper.cn), Zhao Minghao, a professor at the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University and deputy director of the Center for American Studies, said that the spirit of "peaceful coexistence", especially "coexistence", is instructive for bridging or accepting differences between countries and building a more inclusive world. In the context of the rising risk of global geopolitical conflicts, it is particularly important for countries with different social systems, cultural traditions, and ideologies to achieve peaceful coexistence and find the "common divisor".
Zhao Minghao chaired the "International Forum on Strategy and Security" Photo courtesy of the interviewee
"Free trade" has become a "dirty word", and the trend of anti-globalization is difficult to change in the short term
The Paper: When it comes to the current international situation, China-US relations cannot be avoided. Despite the current momentum of stabilization in bilateral relations, the strategic competition between the two countries seems to be intensifying. Will this pattern of interaction be sustained in the long term? In order to avoid slipping into unconscious conflict, what areas of exchange or cooperation should the two sides pay more attention to?
Zhao Minghao: I have noticed that the US has become increasingly competitive in its strategic competition with China. In particular, hawks with Republican backgrounds tend to be tough and even extreme in their handling of China. For example, O'Brien, who served as the president's national security adviser during the Trump administration, recently wrote that economic ties with China should be further weakened and military deterrence against China should be strengthened, and former trade representative Robert Lighthizer also proposed to promote the "strategic decoupling" of the U.S.-China economy. In the discussion of China within the United States, on the whole, the voices of moderate voices toward China are relatively weak, the voices of hardliners are becoming more prominent, and ideological hostility is increasing. Therefore, we are not particularly optimistic about the direction of Sino-US relations, and the strategic competition between the United States and China will continue for a long time, and even Biden has made it clear that the next ten years will be a "decisive decade" for the Sino-US contest.
However, we have also seen a certain degree of resilience in the contest between trade and technology. Since the U.S.-China summit in San Francisco late last year, both sides have tried to find effective ways to manage the U.S.-China relationship and promote a "re-connection" between China and the United States at the social and human levels. Not long ago, I attended a small meeting with U.S. Ambassador to China Burns, and he said that the U.S. side would like to see more American students study in China.
While it is important to maintain economic cooperation between the United States and China to avoid great power competition from turning into direct conflict, the challenge of addressing the "weaponization of interdependence" (the use of economic interdependence by countries to pressure each other as weapons) is also a complex challenge. Although the United States pursues economic "de-risking" and selective "decoupling" from China, China-US economic and trade relations are still very close. While the role of the "ballast" is questioned, without such economic ties, all aspects of social interaction between the two countries would be more difficult.
The Paper: Looking at the current international trade, we will find that protectionism and national security factors often override economic factors, and "decoupling" and "de-risking" have become high-frequency words. Recently, the United States and the European Union have announced high tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. In recent years, why has the phenomenon of interdependence and "weaponization" in the economic and trade fields become more and more prominent? Under what circumstances is this trend of deglobalization expected to improve or be reversed?
Zhao Minghao: At present, the securitization of the international economic and trade field is becoming more and more prominent, and major power competition, the new crown epidemic, and the Ukraine crisis are all important driving factors. To a large extent, U.S. economic policy has tended to be dominated by national security concerns. Whether it is the "New Washington Consensus" proposed by President Biden's National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan or the "New Bretton Woods System" proposed by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, in fact, they all emphasize the importance of national security factors in foreign economic policy.
Geopolitical risks have a direct impact on the "securitization" of economic and trade relations. Many people fear that war or conflict will disrupt supply chains. In addition, the security risks posed by emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence are also one of the triggers for anxiety.
In the short term, it may be difficult to change the trend of "de-globalization", which has been dominated by economic efficiency in the past, and we will see a "hemispherical" situation driven by security concerns, that is, the formation of "small circles" between the United States and its allies. The term "free trade" has become a "dirty word" in Western political circles and public opinion circles, and no politician will claim to support free trade, and they preach the concepts of "reciprocal trade" and "fair trade". Under this new situation, China faces many challenges in defending multilateralism in the field of international trade and how to maintain the WTO system.
The characteristics of the turbulent and transformative period of the world are becoming more and more prominent, and the weaponization of AI needs to be vigilant
The Paper: In recent years, international and regional security conflicts have become more frequent. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has entered its third year, and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has lasted for more than eight months, and there is still no solution to the two conflicts in the short term. What do you think are the long-term and profound effects of these two conflicts on the international situation and the balance of power?
Zhao Minghao: The Russia-Ukraine conflict will lead to a long-term confrontation between Russia and Western countries, and the risk of further escalation of the conflict cannot even be ruled out. For example, the United States is stepping up the modernization of tactical nuclear weapons, and Russia is also conducting military exercises with nuclear weapons. The protracted confrontation in Eurasia will also have a spillover impact on the security situation in the Asia-Pacific region and other regions.
For China, after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, both the United States and Europe have seen a situation of "binding China and Russia" as a de facto alliance. In this regard, China still has a lot of work to do to make the West accurately understand the characteristics of the relationship between China and Russia. When I recently attended a meeting of the Trilateral Commission in Brussels, I could feel that European countries still have great expectations of China, and it is very important to achieve a "rebalancing" of relations between China, Russia, Europe and the United States.
The conflict in the Gaza Strip will affect the normalization of relations between Israel and Arab countries. In addition, the United States may change its strategic layout in the Middle East, strengthen its military support for Israel, and increase its pressure on Iran. The United States has been trying to reduce the deployment of forces in the "Greater Middle East" region and to shift its military strategic resources to the Asia-Pacific region.
On the whole, geopolitical conflicts, conflicts of historical concepts, and conflicts of religious issues are all highly entangled. It also reminds us that the world is becoming more and more characterized by periods of turbulence and change.
In addition, in the context of great power competition, the choice of countries in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and other regions has become increasingly important, and they tend to seek autonomy under the "new bipolar" structure of China and the United States. When I was in Thailand recently for a conference on the trilateral relationship between China and the United States and Southeast Asia, the Thai deputy foreign minister made it clear that "we don't want to take sides, but we also have to take sides." The countries of the Global South want to achieve "Non-Alignment 2.0". There are also some countries that try to maximize their own interests by taking advantage of a certain degree of Sino-US competition, and the global character of the Sino-US game is becoming more and more prominent.
Cho Myung-ho (first from left) attends a meeting of the Trilateral Commission and holds discussions with former Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono (second from right) and others. Photo courtesy of the interviewee
The Paper: With the launch of ChatGPT, major countries in the world have increased their investment in AI research and development, hoping to seize the opportunity and become a rule-maker in this field. At the same time, the development and application of AI has also added more uncontrollable factors to the international situation. What are the key issues that need to be prioritized in the current AI conversation between major countries to mitigate potential risks? What are your expectations for consensus?
Zhao Minghao: There is a lot of discussion about AI governance, and the question is how to bridge different standards, according to statistics, more than 200 AI governance bills or initiatives have been introduced in relevant countries. In addition, the commercialization and militarization of AI technology is accelerating. In particular, AI and autonomous weapon systems, the connection between the nuclear issue and AI, and the ethical dilemma of AI technology research and development are common challenges faced by all parties.
Despite the progress made in the U.S.-China government-to-government dialogue on artificial intelligence and other technologies, the geo-technical pressure exerted by the U.S. on China continues unabated. The Biden administration is considering tightening export controls in the field of AI large models, the US Congress is also advancing the ENFORCE Act that focuses on AI technology competition, and the US Department of Defense has become the driver of the AI arms race. It is worth noting that the cooperation between AI companies and the US Department of Defense and intelligence services is deepening, and the United States is at the forefront of AI weaponization.
Focusing on the long-term stability of China-US relations and the common well-being of human society, it is necessary to establish boundaries and rules for geotechnological competition between major powers to prevent falling into the "lose-lose" trap caused by emerging technologies getting out of control.
Mitigate the impact of geopolitical games and properly address the problems of the Global South
The Paper: In the process of improving the construction of the global governance system, major countries are paying more attention to winning over and competing for the support of countries in the Global South. What is the strategic impact of the Global South today? How is this similar and different from the Cold War when the United States and the Soviet Union fought for the so-called "Third World"?
Zhao Minghao: During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union engaged in fierce competition for third-world countries in the Horn of Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia and other regions, which in turn shaped a kind of "global Cold War". Both the United States and the Soviet Union tried to show Third World countries that their ideology was universal. It is worth noting that Gregg A. Brazinsky, a professor at George Washington University, believes that during the Cold War, the United States and China also competed in the "Third World".
Nowadays, in the context of the geopolitical game of major powers, the "Global South", which is closely related to the "Third World", has become a topic of international public opinion. The Global South is seen as an important force influencing changes in the international order. Kishore Mahbubani, a distinguished research fellow at the National University of Singapore, believes that 88% of the world's population lives in the Global South, which is "no longer a passive player on the world stage" and will belong to the Global South in the next decade.
The Global South is not an international organization or political bloc with a clear membership of the Global South, but a group of countries with diverse values, cultural traditions, levels of development, and diverse interests, and its inherent heterogeneity cannot be underestimated. The United States and other Western countries have sought to dismantle China's relationship with the Global South by adopting a divide-and-rule strategy against the Global South in order to dismantle China's status as a "developing country" and classify China as the "Global East."
China needs to grasp the opportunities presented by the Global South, but also recognize the difficulties faced by the Global South and its pragmatic orientation of "non-Western but not anti-Western", and strive to improve the quality and efficiency of cooperation with developing countries. In terms of specific pathways, China needs to make good use of mechanisms and platforms such as the Belt and Road Initiative and the Global Development Initiative, and increase coordination with countries in the Global South to jointly safeguard the core position of development issues in the international governance agenda. We will support mechanisms such as the Non-Aligned Movement, the G77 and OPEC+, carry out incremental reforms in global governance, and strive to mitigate the impact of geopolitical games on the interests of developing countries.
The Paper: In practice, there are often incidents that violate the basic norms of international relations. In addition to reaching a consensus on principle, what concrete actions can be taken among the major countries to create more conditions for peaceful coexistence?
Zhao Minghao: At present, many people in the Western strategic circles are discussing the issue of World War III, and we need to be fully vigilant against the risks of war and conflict. On the issue of the international order, the differences in perception among the major powers are quite profound, and there is a lack of consensus on many issues of principle, making it increasingly difficult to achieve multilateral coordination and action. As UN Secretary-General António Guterres has said, "Multilateralism is under attack at a time when it is most needed".
Against this background, it is of great significance for China to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the promulgation of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence. In terms of the basic norms governing international relations, countries should have a common "vocabulary" and work together to avoid the regression of international politics in the direction of confrontation and conflict. This is also the background for China to put forward the two concepts of "equal and orderly multipolarization" and "inclusive globalization".
To achieve the goal of peaceful coexistence, China needs to promote the further implementation of the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative and the Global Civilization Initiative, so as to add more certainty and action to world stability and development.
The Paper reporter Wang Lu intern Chen Zhenyi
(The author, Zhao Minghao, is a professor at the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University and a visiting researcher at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of Chinese, this article is transferred from the surging news on June 27, welcome to pay attention to the Chongyang Sina Weibo: @人大重阳, WeChat public account: rdcy2013)