Yesterday's sudden fall across the board, the investors were confused, when many people think that today's market must be a new low, did not expect that after a slight lower opening in the morning, it suddenly rose sharply, the small heart of investors really can't stand it, but fortunately today is a day that makes everyone happy, I hope that such a surprise every day, then what happened to the sudden surge?
First of all, the market must be driven by funds, as long as there is a large amount of money into the market, the market will undoubtedly rise.
Secondly, we have repeatedly emphasized that as long as Guo Jia's protective funds are bought sharply, the market will definitely rise, and the SSE 50 ETF and CSI 300 ETF in the morning, and the central enterprise technology ETF have risen sharply in early trading.
Finally, the early trading of institutional funds also changed the state of yesterday's sharp outflow, after a small outflow at the opening, it suddenly began to accelerate the flow in, an hour to flow into more than 5 billion, which is rare, Wednesday domestic capital only flowed into 2.9 billion throughout the day, today an hour into more than 5 billion, the market is not rising.
Institutional funds, Guo Jia's team funds work together to do long, the market naturally reversed, a sharp rise, individual stocks are also comprehensively raised, the previous hour compared with yesterday enlarged more than 10 billion, next, as long as Guo Jia's team funds and institutional funds do not return, the whole day is naturally a certainty. For the sudden surge, what changes have occurred in the news and what are the stimulus?
To be honest, I searched for most of the day, and I also looked at major websites, and I really didn't find any hardcore reasons to stand for today's big rise, and it is also possible to face a continuous sharp fall, and the market expects that there may be any big policies introduced over the weekend. In fact, there is no good rise, it is more reassuring, if the market is always driven by the good, and the lack of self-rebound momentum, such a market is hopeless.
To be honest, although everyone is naturally very happy when it rises, this kind of hot and cold, up and down market is still very worrying, if it is always not stable, what kind of development can we talk about?
As of 11 o'clock this morning, the volume can be amplified by 20.8 billion, obviously the amount can be amplified is not enough, the next two and a half hours, as long as the volume can continue to amplify, the volume can exceed 700 billion throughout the day, and the rebound is more likely to continue?
Next, let's discuss a few hot spots in the market:
1. Today, there is no new low, and the volume stands above the 5-day moving average, has the market bottomed out?
First of all, according to the general statement, as long as the volume does not hit a new low for three consecutive days, and the volume can continue to amplify, the probability of bottoming out in the short term is larger, after the new low on Wednesday, there is no new low on Thursday and Friday, at least we have to observe the trend next Monday, but the current volume and energy level is not enough, and it is not yet certain that the market has bottomed.
Secondly, there is no smashing down today, pulling up directly, there is no more panic to kill, which is not conducive to the bottom of the market.
Finally, the biggest force in the morning rose from Guo Jia's team, several major ETFs rose sharply in the intraday, but soon with the wait-and-see of the disk protection funds, the market fell back, in this process, institutional funds did not act, began to wait and see, our conclusion is that the disk protection funds only rose sharply, the market rose, as long as the disk protection funds let go, the market will fall. The market lacks the momentum to protect itself.
On the whole, talking about the bottom may be a false proposition, and it is all up to Guo Jia's team to support the market. As long as you pull hard, you will naturally pull up, and the short-term will definitely bottom out, and you can only see what the future looks like. If you rely on the funds in the market to find the bottom of yourself, it is difficult to see the bottom.
Operationally speaking, it doesn't make much sense to predict the rise and fall of the index every day. You just need to control your position, buy when it falls sharply, and sell when it rises, and you don't need to make it so complicated. Speculating in stocks is like playing with life, so there is no need.
2. The time for the semi-annual report of the Shanghai Stock Exchange is coming
Performance speculation has always been the focus of everyone's attention, especially in the context of the weakness of the broader market. Under the new delisting rules, it is necessary to pay more attention to performance, and stay away from small and micro-cap stocks that lack performance support as soon as possible. Don't have illusions.
The first annual report of the Shanghai Stock Exchange is Kangxin New Materials, and today it is also a one-word seal. The first semi-annual report of the science and technology innovation board company will be made by Zhimingda, which rose about 10% in early trading.
Often, the more companies release their results in advance, the better they think their performance is, and the more they will be sought after by funds. There are also a lot of performance forecasts here, among which the performance is expected to increase, but there is no hype, you can pay attention to it.
3. Will it continue to rise in the afternoon?
First of all, the trend of today's market is completely similar to the trend of several major ETFs protected by Guo Jia's team. At eleven o'clock, the large-market index began to fall downward, obviously because the protection funds were falling against the target ETFs, and then several major ETFs began to rise, and the large-market index pulled back. This obvious change shows that the rise and fall of the market is completely subject to external forces, and domestic institutions are also watching the face of the disk funds, as long as the disk protection funds do not move, domestic institutions will not move, and retail investors are basically not interested in the rebound, most of them are waiting and seeing.
Secondly, from the perspective of changes in quantity and energy, 21.6 billion was increased at 11 o'clock in the morning, and 18.7 billion was released as of the morning close, indicating that the volume can continue to shrink. If you don't increase the volume in the afternoon, it will be difficult for the market to rise.
Finally, judging from the performance of individual stocks, the general rise means that the over-fall rebound, and the local money-making effect is not very strong.
My understanding is that the market will go higher in the afternoon, and the funds to protect the disk are likely to increase their strength, and they will dare to exert force in the morning and will not let the market give up halfway.
On Wednesday, I expected that the weekly line would close with a high probability of closing the day, but on Thursday the index fell sharply again, and I began to waver. Judging from the current trend, as long as it rises another 23 points in the afternoon, the weekly line will close positive. The broader market will end a six-week losing streak. Regularity is something that can be magical at times.
Even if the weekly line closes and only changes the short-term pessimistic expectations, it is still difficult to go next.