After the Dragon Boat Festival, the overall price of live pigs fell significantly, the national average price once fell to about 8.5 yuan, the sharp decline in pig prices, on the one hand, because of the decline in the enthusiasm of the second breeder farmers, farmers locked in profits at high prices, increased pigs, and increased the supply of live pigs in the market. On the other hand, because the terminal pork demand was cold, the order volume of white meat was not large, and the operating rate of slaughterhouses fell to 23.98%, a decrease of nearly 4 percentage points compared with before the Dragon Boat Festival. Moreover, after the rise in pig prices, the losses of slaughtering enterprises intensified, and the loss range was as high as 50.94 yuan.
Affected by the second half of last year to the first half of this year, as well as the serious pig disease in the north last winter, the speed of pig production capacity has accelerated, making the current pigs available for slaughter at a relatively low level.
After the pig price fell, the willingness of free-range farmers to raise the price increased, and the group pig farms had more operations to shrink the volume and raise the price at the end of the month and the beginning of the month, and the difficulty of purchasing pigs from slaughtering enterprises increased, so they had to raise the price and promote the volume. In recent days, pig prices have risen to "six relatives do not recognize", on July 1, the highest price in the country has risen to 9.6 yuan, not far from breaking ten again, and the lowest price has also risen to 8.6 yuan.
Specific to the pig price in various regions, the pig price in East China is 8.9-9.6 yuan, the pig price in Central China is 8.8-9.3 yuan, the pig price in Northeast China has risen to 8.7-9.3 yuan, and the pig price in Southwest has risen to 8.6-9.0 yuan. The pig price in South China rose to 8.7-9.5 yuan, and the pig price in North China rose to 8.9-9.3 yuan. The national pig price is still high in the east and low in the west.
After entering July, pig prices are very likely to show an "N" shaped trend of rising first and then falling and then rising, driven by the shrinkage of group pig farms at the beginning of the month, free-range farmers responded positively and reduced the number of pigs. After the pig price falls, the enthusiasm of the second breeder farmers to fill the fence will also be significantly improved, seize the source of pigs, and the slaughtering enterprises can only continue to increase the price in order to meet the market demand.
In the middle of the month, as the price of pigs rose to a stage high, the mentality of farmers out of pigs will gradually loosen, superimposed group pig farms have the need to complete the monthly slaughter task, and after experiencing a previous wave of price reductions, farmers will choose to bag for safety, superimposed high temperature and rain in the south into the high incidence season of diseases, many farmers are worried about the risk of choosing pigs, so that the difficulty of slaughtering pigs will be significantly reduced. In the context of the need to reduce losses, slaughtering companies are bound to start a new round of price reduction.
At the end of the month, the college entrance examination admission notices have been received one after another, the results of the high school entrance examination have been settled, and banquets such as the college entrance banquet and the teacher appreciation banquet will enter the peak season. Combined with the increase in demand for summer barbecue, cold salad and other supper, pork consumption demand is expected to be higher than in the middle and first half of July, driving pig prices to enter an upward cycle again.
Although pig prices change frequently, but the high level of operation will not change, although there are ups and downs, the rise and fall will not be very large, is expected to fluctuate between 8.5-9.5 yuan, pig farmers can reasonably arrange slaughter according to their own situation.