Source of this article: Times Finance Author: Li Yiwen
At present, the population data of 31 provinces in 2023 have all been made public.
Against the backdrop of slowing growth in the number of births, it is becoming increasingly difficult to attract people from province to province. According to publicly available data, in 2023, among the 31 provinces, the number of permanent residents in 11 provinces will show positive growth, with a total increase of about 1.62 million, and the number of provinces with growth is at a historical low.
Source: Picture Worm Creative
At the same time, the characteristics of "the strong are always strong" between provinces are also becoming more and more obvious. Specifically, among the 11 positive growth provinces, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Hainan, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Xinjiang 6 provinces have an increase of more than 100,000, with an overall increase of about 1.4854 million, accounting for more than 9% of the overall increase in the permanent population of the 11 provinces.
Among them, the population attraction of the four economically strong provinces of Zhejiang, Guangdong, Shanghai and Jiangsu is still very strong, with the permanent population increasing by 500,000, 490,000, 115,600 and 110,000 respectively in 2023. In 2023, the growth of permanent population in Hainan and Xinjiang, which is relatively low in terms of GDP, will not only maintain positive growth, but also reach 159,800 and 110,000 respectively.
In addition, Guizhou's population attraction in 2023 is also very impressive, with an increase of 90,000 permanent residents, just one step away from the 100,000 mark.
The difference in the level of economic and social development is a key factor in the differentiation of population competition between provinces. But in 2023, why will Hainan, Xinjiang, Guizhou, and other provinces that are still in the "catch-up" stage be able to achieve significant growth in terms of attracting population? Will these provinces be able to maintain their advantages in the future, and even grow further?
Hainan has the third largest population increase in the country
In the 2023 population competition, Hainan can be said to be the most dazzling province.
According to the 2023 Statistical Communiqué on the National Economic and Social Development of Hainan Province, at the end of 2023, the permanent population of Hainan Province was 10.43 million, an increase of about 160,000 from the end of the previous year. Its growth not only surpassed Shanghai and Jiangsu, ranking third in the country, but also expanded significantly in the context of a further slowdown in the country's population growth.
In terms of growth patterns, population growth is divided into natural growth due to the difference between births and deaths, and mechanical growth, which brings about changes in population movements. The increase in the population of an area is the result of the sum of natural and mechanical growth. And judging from the data, although Hainan still maintains a high birth rate, it is difficult to attribute its long-term population growth to this alone.
According to the data released by the Hainan Provincial Bureau of Statistics, in 2023, the number of births in Hainan Province will be 96,000, an increase of 7,900 over the previous year, and the birth rate will be 9.28 per thousand. However, the number of deaths in the same period was 67,000, an increase of 3,900 over the previous year, and the mortality rate was 6.47 per thousand.
In other words, last year, Hainan's natural population increased by 29,000 people, and the mechanical increase in population, that is, the net inflow of population across provinces exceeded 130,000.
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Demographic changes are often related to local economic level and industrial development. However, from the perspective of economic size, it is difficult for the mechanical growth of Hainan's permanent population to match its economic ranking.
According to the data, the gross domestic product (GDP) of Hainan in 2023 will be 755.118 billion yuan, ranking 28th among 31 provinces, a difference of nearly 431.262 billion yuan compared with Gansu Province, which ranks 27th. In 2023, the permanent population of Gansu Province will decrease by about 270,000.
"This is not surprising," Yang Chenggang, vice president of the Chinese Population Association and professor at the Institute of Social Development of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, told Times Finance, adding that the current overall economic situation has developed great changes, and the economic development and prospects between regions have also changed accordingly.
"At present, the state has given Hainan the strategic positioning of building a pilot zone for comprehensively deepening reform and opening up, a national ecological civilization pilot zone, an international tourism consumption center and a major national strategic service guarantee area. Among them, the Hainan Free Trade Port is directly in line with international high-level economic and trade rules, and has made a commitment to start the island-wide customs closure operation in a timely manner by the end of 2025. Under the huge strategic opportunities, Hainan has seen a sharp increase in entrepreneurial and employment opportunities, and its attractiveness to young people is also increasing. Yang Chenggang explained.
In fact, Hainan still needs to further grow its economic aggregate due to factors such as the area of its restricted jurisdiction, but recently Hainan has given full play to the opportunity to turn the policy benefits into economic development advantages.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Hainan Province's GDP growth rate will reach 9.2% in 2023, 4 percentage points higher than the national average and ranking second in the country. Judging from the expected GDP growth targets for 2024 announced by various provinces, Hainan also leads the country with an expected growth target of about 8%.
Similar to Hainan, the same is true for Xinjiang. With the advancement of the Belt and Road Initiative and the gradual highlighting of the advantages of Xinjiang's inland ports, Xinjiang has more entrepreneurial employment opportunities and economic development potential.
In 2023, Xinjiang's gross domestic product (GDP) will be 1,912.591 billion yuan, an increase of 6.8% over the previous year, ranking fourth in the country and significantly higher than the national average growth rate of 5.2%. In the same period, the total import and export value of foreign trade exceeded 350 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.9%, ranking second in the country in terms of growth rate, 45.7 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of the country.
In addition to the growth rate of GDP and import and export, relevant statistics show that in 2023, the growth rate of many major economic indicators such as investment, consumption, finance, and residents' income in Xinjiang will rank among the top 5 in the country.
Guizhou mainly relies on "life"
After Xinjiang, Guizhou is only one step away from the 100,000 permanent population increase.
According to the data, the permanent population of Guizhou Province at the end of 2023 was 38.65 million, an increase of about 90,000 from 38.56 million at the end of 2022. This increase ranks 7th in the country.
In fact, judging from past population data, Guizhou's population has maintained a relatively considerable growth for a long time. In the decade from 2013 to 2023, Guizhou's permanent population only experienced a brief decline in 2021, and the remaining nine years maintained a considerable positive growth.
However, unlike most regions, which rely mainly on mechanical population growth, Guizhou's population has been able to buck the trend, largely due to the high birth rate maintained in the region.
Statistics show that in 2023, the birth population in Guizhou Province will be 411,000, and the birth rate will be 10.65‰; 300,000 people died, and the mortality rate was 7.77 per thousand; The natural increase in population was 111,000, and the natural growth rate of the population was 2.88 per thousand. Based on this calculation, in terms of the statistical caliber of inter-provincial floating population, Guizhou will have a net outflow of 21,000 people in 2023.
In the context of the overall low birth rate and negative population growth, the advantage of Guizhou's higher birth rate is more obvious. From 2020 to 2022, Guizhou's birth rates will be 13.7 per thousand, 12.17 per thousand, and 11.03 per thousand, respectively, ranking second in the country, 5.18 per thousand, 4.65 per thousand, and 4.26 per thousand higher than the "national line".
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Thanks to the advantage of the birth rate, Guizhou's natural growth rate has always been in the forefront of the country in recent years. From 2020 to 2022, Guizhou's natural birth rate also ranked among the top three in the country, second only to Tibet and Ningxia.
Not only that, due to its relatively young population structure, Guizhou's population is aging relatively moderately, and there is still room for natural population growth.
Statistics show that at the end of 2023, there will be 6.6 million elderly people aged 60 and above in Guizhou, accounting for 17.08% of the total population, of which 4.95 million will be aged 65 and above, accounting for 12.81% of the total population. In the same period, the proportion of the population aged 60 and over reached 21.1%, and the population aged 65 and over accounted for 15.4%.
However, judging from the trend of Guizhou's natural population growth rate, there has also been a relatively obvious downward trend in recent years. In 2017, the natural population growth rate of Guizhou was still 7.05 per thousand, but by 2023, it has dropped to 2.88 per thousand.
In addition, in the context of the gradual decline in the marriage rate across the country, the situation in Guizhou is not optimistic. According to a previous report by Times Finance, in 2023, the number of marriage registrations on the day of "520" in Guizhou will be 6,873 couples, far lower than last year's 14,876 couples, a year-on-year decrease of 53.8%.
"It's a trend that's hard to reverse." Liang Zhongtang, a researcher at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences and a former member of the National Family Planning Commission, told Times Finance that the overall trend of negative population growth in the country is difficult to reverse in the short term, and with the decline in the overall population, it may be difficult for provinces that still maintain an increase in population to maintain corresponding growth in the future.
Yang Chenggang also believes that from the macro level, the growth of regional population depends on mechanical growth in the short term, that is, the migration and flow of population, but in the long run, it still depends on the natural growth of population. "At present, all provinces and municipalities have fully realized the importance of population to regional economic and social development, and have launched various policies to attract people and talents to attract population inflow. The natural growth of the population requires unified deployment at the central level, and what can be done by all localities is to introduce supporting measures, do a good job in implementation, improve the birth policy support system, and create a more friendly birth environment. ”