A-shares ended in the first half of the year, and the banking sector rose nearly 17%

Securities Times reporter Huang Xiang

With the close of trading on June 28, the trading of A-shares in the first half of 2024 has officially ended.

Looking back on the first half of the year, the A-share market has rebounded strongly from the extreme market at the beginning of the year, and has since fluctuated and adjusted again, showing a relatively volatile trend. It is worth noting that although the overall market was under pressure in the first half of the year, there were many structural opportunities, and the market remained active. Looking ahead, brokerage institutions are still optimistic, and many opportunities are worth paying attention to.

The banking sector led the gains in the first half of the year

On June 28, the three major A-share stock indexes were mixed. Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2967.4 points, up 0.73%; The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 8848.7 points, down 0.01%; The GEM index closed at 1683.43 points, down 1.16%. In the first half of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index edged down 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 7.10%, and the ChiNext Index fell 10.99% during the year.

Market data shows that the market trend in the first half of the year can be roughly divided into three stages. In the first stage, since the beginning of the year, the stock index has weakly declined to bottom, and the Shanghai Composite Index once fell below 2,700 points on February 5. After that, on February 6, the rebound began to enter the second stage, during which the index gradually and steadily rose to 3,100 points with the influence of factors such as the new "National Nine Articles", the promotion of the policy of the two sessions and the strengthening of real estate policy expectations. Since late May, the Shanghai Composite Index has entered the third stage, reaching the current round of highs on May 20 and then recovering below 3,000 points on June 21.

In the first half of the year, the overall performance of the market fluctuated and differentiated. From the perspective of index performance, large-cap stocks dominated the first half of the year, led by the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and the CSI 300, which rose by 2.95% and 0.89% respectively during the year; Growth and small-cap stocks adjusted more, with CSI down 23.28% and CSI 1000 down 16.84% in 2000.

Specific to the rise and fall of various industry sectors, in the first half of the year, among the 31 Shenwan industry sectors, banks and coal were among the top gainers, of which the banking sector rose by about 17.02% to rank first, and the top decliners were comprehensive, computer, trade and retail, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery.

In terms of individual stocks, about 800 stocks recorded gains in the first half of the year, accounting for 15%. In addition to new stocks, among the top ten stocks, Zhengdan shares topped with a 371.77% increase, followed by Wanfeng Aowei with a 170.73% increase, followed by Xinyisheng with a 114% increase. In addition, there are Jiayi shares, Yutong bus rose by more than 100%, Jindun shares, Shantui shares, Wall nuclear materials and other about 170 stocks rose by more than 20%, about 480 stocks rose by more than 10%.

High-dividend assets are sought after

In the first half of the year, under the shock of the broader market, the market risk appetite tightened, the "dividend and low volatility" attribute assets were sought after, the banking and coal sectors strengthened, and many stocks hit record highs.

According to the data, in the Shenwan banking sector, a total of 29 bank stocks rose by more than 10% during the year, of which 16 banks rose by more than 20%, and Bank of Nanjing led the way with an increase of 48.83%. In addition, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China recently surpassed Kweichow Moutai with a total market value of 2 trillion yuan and topped the "first brother" of the A-share market value. At present, the top 10 companies in the total market capitalization of A-shares, except for Kweichow Moutai, are all in the banking and energy industries.

On June 28, CNOOC's share price hit a new high, with the latest share price closing at 33 yuan per share, an increase of 57% during the year. As a high-dividend energy sector, individual stocks continued to set new stock price records during the year. In addition to CNOOC, representatives include PetroChina, Yangtze Power, China Shenhua, Yankuang Energy, etc.

"Since the beginning of this year, the high-dividend sector has risen sharply, and many stocks have even hit new highs, mainly related to the characteristics of low valuation and high dividend yield in related industries." A brokerage industry analyst told reporters, "When the market's risk appetite is relatively low, everyone is more inclined to buy sectors with low valuations and high dividend yields." Bank stocks and energy stocks just have such characteristics, so they are sought after by many funds and have a strong trend. ”

The analyst said that the current macroeconomic growth is slowing down, and many industries are showing pressure such as overcapacity. At the same time, in the context of a stronger bond market, the strategy of high dividends in the first half of the year is more in line with market trends.

In addition, the above-mentioned industries are mostly "Zhongzi", and the current central state-owned enterprises are expected to resonate with the market's "high dividend" strategy under the requirements of focusing on market value management, so the high-dividend sector has the characteristics of attacking and retreating. Looking ahead, the domestic economic fundamentals are still weak, the monetary policy is still in the interest rate cut channel, and the high-dividend sector is still relatively dominant.

The rotation of hot plates intensified

In the first half of this year, the A-share market has been hot and frequent, from the low-altitude economy at the beginning of the year, new quality productivity, to humanoid robots, optical modules, Sora concepts, vehicle road clouds, etc.

Wanfeng Aowei, one of the top ten bull stocks in the first half of the year, is a representative of the concept of low-altitude economy. Since December last year, the low-altitude economy was officially listed as a strategic emerging industry by the Central Economic Work Conference, followed by the local economic work conferences have successively listed the low-altitude economy as a key development direction.

Another top gainer is the CPO optical module concept stock, benefiting from the demand for AI computing power, the demand for optical modules has grown significantly, and related concepts have set off multiple rounds of rises.

In addition, artificial intelligence, precious metals, nonferrous metals, etc. have also risen sharply, and consumer electronics concept stocks such as PCB, AI mobile phones, and AIPC have set off a rising boom at the end of the first half of the year.

It is worth noting that while the market hotspots are frequent, the rotation between plates has intensified. For example, the Sora concept, which rose by more than 30% in the first quarter of this year, has since retreated as funds rotated to other concept plates.

Industry insiders believe that in the turbulent situation of the market, the current market is gradually shrinking, and the stock of funds is "huddled together for warmth", so that hot topics are often driven by events to get out of the small trend market.

Chen Guo, chief strategy analyst of China Securities Securities, believes that the current A-share market is more independent of the boom market, and relies on overseas and policy catalysts, once there are external fluctuations or performance difficulties, the market may end soon, which is also an important reason for the acceleration of various theme market rotation this year.

The new "National Nine Measures" reshape the A-share ecosystem

In April this year, the new "National Nine Measures" were promulgated, proposing to increase the supervision of delisting, further tighten the mandatory delisting standards, smooth multiple delisting channels, and make efforts to strengthen the supervision of delisting, and the ecological construction of the A-share market has undergone positive changes.

Looking back on the first half of the year, the ST sector bore the brunt. Many ST shares fell sharply, and the stock price continued to fall to a new low since listing, approaching the verge of delisting at par value. According to statistics, since the beginning of this year, more than 30 A-share companies have touched the par value delisting standard, among them, except for Zhengyuan shares and Zhongyin Cashmere Industry, all of which are ST shares. As of June 28, the ST share sector has fallen by more than 55% this year.

However, many companies have recently launched self-rescue and played a combination of "increase + repurchase". Since June, the ST sector has rebounded, and the differentiation between different individual stocks has accelerated.

In addition to strictly supervising delisting, the emphasis on dividends, the management of the market value of central enterprises, and the improvement of shareholder returns mentioned in the new "National Nine Articles" have also attracted market attention.

CITIC Securities believes that the dividend level of listed companies is positively correlated with excess returns. The increase in holdings by major shareholders can significantly improve the income level of individual stocks, and the implementation of major shareholder holdings in high-dividend stocks will benefit more in the short term.

Cinda Securities said that the long-term impact of the new "National Nine Articles" is to change the benefit distribution mechanism between listed companies and secondary market investors, ensure that listed companies create value for shareholders, and build a policy system that supports "long-term money and long-term investment". As a result, the valuation system of the stock market may stabilize or even gradually recover.

Institutions are optimistic about the market outlook

Entering the second half of the year, various brokerage institutions also gave a positive outlook for the market outlook.

Qin Peijing, chief strategy analyst of CITIC Securities, said that the three major narratives that have affected the performance of A-shares in the past three years will usher in a major inflection point: first, China's strategic initiative has gradually increased and played a more important role in global affairs; Second, the new "National Nine Measures" reposition the market investment and financing function, reshape the market ecology with investors as the foundation, and improve the return expectations of A-shares; Third, the transformation of old and new economic drivers of "first establishment and then breaking" has begun to show results, and under high-quality development, enterprises will dilute their scale, pay attention to profits, and avoid vicious competition. With the gradual verification of the three types of signals, the second half of the year will usher in the starting point of the annual upward market.

Galaxy Securities believes that in the second half of 2024, macroeconomic repair efforts are expected to continue to rise, and the performance of A-shares is expected to stabilize and rebound. At present, the valuation of A-shares is at a historically low level, and the improvement in fundamentals has led to the recovery of investors' risk appetite, coupled with the strategic layout of the Third Plenum of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the probability of A-share shocks and upward movement will be greatly increased.