"Two old men, one full of lies, one stumbling and performing badly......" is the general evaluation of the first debate in the US election in the Western media. What is concerning is that the current President Biden, who has been unwilling to admit defeat easily, made the Democrats feel disappointed and even desperate after the debate, bluntly saying "we are finished", and in the Democratic Party, the voice of "removing Biden" is getting louder and louder, and even Biden admitted that he is old after the debate.
Friedman, Biden's close friend at the New York Times, advised him, "For the sake of America, for the sake of stopping Trump, drop out." On the other hand, Trump has also regained confidence because of this war and is closer to returning to the White House, which has also made US allies nervous.
According to the Observer, after the first debate, the mentality of the Asia-Pacific allies of the United States, Japan, South Korea, and Australia, has changed a lot, and the general opinion is, "If you weren't ready for Trump 2.0 before, then you should do something now", and they believe that this debate makes the possibility of Trump's second term in office "more obvious." Allies expect Trump to "very toughly" pressure allies to increase defense spending. In this regard, we will talk about three topics.
The first, after Biden and Trump are on the same stage, have they already been separated?
In fact, it cannot be said that although Biden is older and in poor physical condition, Trump is also 78 years old after all, and he is not a young man. In this year's U.S. election, a phenomenon that people have to pay attention to is that 78+81+159, this is a duel between two old people, and anything can happen.
Although Trump and Biden covered many topics in this debate, including the economy, immigration, abortion rights, employment, veterans' welfare, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, etc., there are only two topics that are the most representative and ultimately make the two "win or lose".
One is embarrassing for Biden - the United States withdrew its troops from Afghanistan in disarray; One is an embarrassment for Trump – the "Capitol Hill riot" that occurred on January 6, 2021. However, the performance of the two men in their debates on these two topics made the judgment of the high.
Democrats want to see Biden bring down Trump with the "Capitol Hill riot", and Biden did hit it hard, but it was Biden himself who was brought down in the end, because Trump's response was "too perfect".
"On January 6, we had a good border and no one broke into the U.S. from there," he said. On January 6th, our taxes were the lowest ever, and our regulations were the fewest ever; On January 6, we were respected all over the world. And then he (Biden) came".
Regarding the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, Trump attacked Biden and said that this was the weakest time for the United States, and "Putin saw this and decided to invade Ukraine." If there is a "real president" like him, neither the Russian-Ukrainian conflict nor the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will break out. When attacked by Trump, Biden stood motionless behind the podium, his mouth wide open, his eyes wide, and he did not blink for a long time. After seeing such a scene, the Democrats know that Biden is finished, we are finished.
Second, why are U.S. allies nervous about Trump's possible return?
Because Trump is different from Biden, Biden is a political family, and Trump is a "businessman". When Biden was in power, he had a lot of ideas, but whether it was right or wrong, he would always take the lead in pulling a group of allies to do it together, which also kept the entire West from "falling apart", knowing that there was still the "backbone" of the United States; Trump is completely different, whether facing allies or adversaries, he will focus on "America First". For example, the Trump administration imposed tariffs on China, but it was just as unkind to its European allies and filed a lawsuit at the World Trade Organization.
If it is only economic oppression, the US allies can endure it, but politically and militarily, Trump's performance frightens them. Taking the Iran nuclear deal as an example, Trump said that he would withdraw and leave no room for it, and in this regard, the United Kingdom, France and Germany, which participated in the agreement, have all stepped forward to do work, hoping that the United States will stay, but Trump does not give face at all, which also makes European allies very unhappy.
In fact, not only the Iran nuclear deal, but also the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the Paris climate agreement, UNESCO, the Global Migration Agreement, the United Nations Human Rights Council, the Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile Treaty, the Universal Postal Union, the Open Skies Treaty, and even the WHO. Trump believes that this is in the interest of the United States, and as for international responsibilities and the interests of allies, it is irrelevant.
What makes allies even more nervous is that Trump also strictly ordered American allies to increase defense spending to 3% of GDP, and he made it clear that "the US military is stationed in Europe to protect your security, and there is no reason for the United States to pay for its own salaries." When Germany was resistant, Trump threatened to "withdraw U.S. and tactical nuclear weapons from Germany and let you take charge of your own defense." As a result, the other allies panicked.
After judging that Trump is likely to make a comeback, the allies have already made a move. Some people in Europe say that this is very bad for EU countries and that they should try to stop it. NATO proposes to sign a "10-year aid package for Ukraine" to prevent Trump from leaving Ukraine alone after taking office. South Korea, on the other hand, negotiated with the United States in advance on defense spending for the next 10 years before the current defense treaty expired, in order to prevent Trump from raising prices after taking office, because as early as that year, Trump made it clear that "South Korea's defense expenses should be doubled on the existing basis."
Japan, which has the best relationship with the United States among its Asia-Pacific allies, also sent Taro Aso to contact Trump privately, so that he could properly "take care" of Japan once he returns to power. Abe did this ahead of schedule, and Fumio Kishida's government is ready to follow suit.
Third, how likely is Trump's return? This can be seen in four ways.
First of all, in the Republican Party, Trump is the "first person" and has a majority of support, which is very important for his candidacy in the election; Second, within the Democratic Party, with the exception of Biden, there is hardly any candidate who can really pose a threat to Trump; Third, the U.S. High Court said that "guilty" does not affect Trump's participation in the election.
Finally, Trump's polls have led Biden by a wide margin after the first round of debates, and although the American people don't like the "two elders" very much, they are still willing to vote for Trump if they have to choose from these two, because "Trump looks more energetic." In this way, if nothing happens, Trump is really likely to become the owner of the White House again.