According to the Washington Post, local time reported on June 24 local time that the Philippine Navy will break into Ren'ai Jiao again. It could be as early as a week. But China's 12,000-ton coast guard ship No. 5901 has arrived in the Spratly Islands and is approaching the area.
According to the analysis of this US media, the Philippines may have to change its tactics this time and dispatch more 12-meter-class high-speed boats to launch multiple waves and directions to break into the reef. That is, to cover the real supply speedboats with more feints and speedboats.
The Philippine reef inflatable boat that was punctured by the Chinese side on June 17 looked only four or five meters long. The Philippines may feel that this dinghy is too small to confront China. Philippine media have reported that they are building 16 12-meter-long non-reinforced high-speed tactical boats for the Philippine Navy and Coast Guard to be used for high-speed reef penetration. The 12-meter boat mentioned by the Washington Post may also be this type of boat.
Although the Washington Post reported that the Philippines may use this 12-meter high-speed boat next time it breaks into the reef, in fact, the Philippines may use quite a few high-speed patrol boats. The Philippines is rushing to build 42 all-metal monohulic high-speed boats. Judging from the photos of the construction site released by the Philippine media, the hull adopts a metal riveting and welding structure, which has a certain protective performance against the rifle machine gun, and will be specially used for collision with our coast guard boats.
The Philippines also has the FPB 72 patrol boat with a displacement of 120 tons and a length of 24 meters purchased from France, and the Assero-class fast attack boat with a displacement of 95 tons and a length of 32.65 meters purchased from Israel. These high-speed patrol boats mentioned above may be used, not necessarily 12 meters long, so we must not underestimate the complex situation brought about by the Philippines using high-speed boats to force into Ren'ai Jiao.
China's 10,000-ton Coast Guard ship No. 5901 is heading to Nansha, which is of course a strong shock to the Philippine provocation. The Philippine side did not dare to use his small boat to be tough with a 10,000-ton ship, otherwise it would be like hitting a stone with an egg. China also does not need to use large coast guard ships against Philippine patrol boats.
Of course, there are many more high-speed boats in China than in the Philippines, not to mention the large and medium-sized coast guard ships such as the Type 056 and Type 054A coast guard ships that we have warship blood. For example, a 14.3-meter-long high-speed patrol boat can reach a maximum speed of 50 knots, which is 2 to 4 times the speed of ordinary coast patrol boats. This is something that the Philippine patrol boats simply cannot compare.
The last effective replenishment of the landing ship was on 19 May. On June 4, the Philippine side conducted an airdrop, but it was not very successful, and probably sent two bags of grain. Everyone saw the resupply operation on June 17, and it was completely thwarted by our side. Since there has been no effective supply for more than 40 days, it is really possible that the Philippines will resupply in the next week, which is still very likely.
However, the Philippine side is ready to trespass the reef again, and the Chinese side is fully prepared to deal with it. The arrival of a 10,000-ton coast guard ship in Nansha is a powerful demonstration, and it can be expected that if the Philippine side trespasses the reef again, it will certainly suffer an even more shameful defeat.