With the phrase "It's a selfie stick, don't talk about the axe gang anymore", the conflict between the Chinese coast guard and the Philippines at Ren'ai Jiao has also become a hot topic in June 2024.
[Explanation of "Axe Man with Virtue" issued by the Chinese police]
This "hand-to-hand" with the Philippines has once again shown the United States and the West that China will never back down on the issue of national sovereignty - in recent years, China has also stepped up patrols and law enforcement in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.
Among them, China's various military exercises around Taiwan Province have put the United States under great pressure, and American think tanks and international research centers have analyzed China's Taiwan Strait issue together.
They saw another solution for Taiwan Province, believing that on the day the Chinese People's Liberation Army takes over Taiwan in the future, it may be able to welcome the return of Taiwan Province without firing a single shot.
【Chinese People's Liberation Army】
Why did the United States and the West come to such conclusions?
Think tank speculation on China's strategy
In the eyes of the United States and the West, China is likely to apply its measures to the South China Sea issue to the Taiwan Strait issue, and when the time comes, China will devote a large amount of police force to the sea and gradually narrow the "encirclement" of Taiwan Province in the name of patrolling and maintaining territorial security.
【China Coast Guard Patrol Vessel】
To put it bluntly, the specific operation is to restrict the entry and exit of ships in Taiwan Province, economically isolate Taiwan, and turn Taiwan, China into an isolated island in the true sense of the word - after all, Taiwan Province relies mostly on foreign trade in economic development, and the land area of Taiwan Province is not enough to support its own development.
Once China uses economic encirclement to suppress Taiwan Province, then the Taiwan authorities can choose to fight with the mainland and use military as the base point to pry the barrier of the encirclement.
However, as far as the comparison of military forces between the two sides of the strait is concerned, this choice is obviously very irrational and does not have any probability of victory.
[Armed forces warship on the island that is in its fifties]
Moreover, if Taiwan Province really wants to use the military to make a breakthrough, then they, as the first to shoot, will not have much reason in the international community, and the United States and Western countries will have to weigh it if they want to help.
Since military confrontation cannot be chosen, the Taiwan authorities can only take another path -- peaceful reunification. No matter how it is chosen, the ownership of Taiwan Province is to return to the bosom of China, and the only difference between the two paths is that the latter will not sacrifice people's lives for no reason.
Does China support such a strategy?
I have to say that the report of the US think tank does sound very logical, but its overall style of acting does not match the thinking of the mainland.
For Chinese mainland, Taiwan Province is our own brother of our mother, and for Chinese, Taiwanese are also our long-lost family.
[Oppose independence and promote reunification, Taiwan angelica]
No one wants their own brothers to shed blood or suffer, so the relatively inhumane strategy of economic encirclement is not likely to be our priority.
Why is the economic encirclement lacking in humanitarianism?
It is because Taiwan Province is very dependent on foreign trade and economy, and if this artery is cut, then Taiwan Province is very likely to "lose too much blood" and fall into riots, which is not alarmist, because there have been similar cases before.
When the Chinese People's Liberation Army conducted military exercises around Taiwan Province, it imposed a three-day ban on sailing.
【Circum-Taiwan Military Exercise】
Even in these three short days, the economy of Taiwan Province has seen considerable ups and downs, and the prices of many commodities have been "bravely scaling to the peak" one by one, making the people of Taiwan Province feel very nervous and frightened.
If Chinese mainland really wants to implement economic encirclement and turn Taiwan Province into an isolated island without economic exchanges, then the time will definitely be more than just three days.
At that time, the livelihood of the people on the island of Taiwan will certainly become a major problem, and it is very likely that a large-scale riot will form under the instigation.
[Soaring prices in Taiwan Province]
Not to mention that this method makes the Taiwan people as compatriots feel the grind, and it is more likely to make the people on the island who support national reunification have a rebellious mentality.
And that's just our situation in China.
If that day comes, the United States and Western countries will certainly use the media and public opinion to exert pressure on China, and will secretly give too immediate support or let the spies lurking in Taiwan Province incite the people.
After all, after the successful landing of Chang'e-6 on the moon, some people in the UK have already pretended to be the BBC to smear China, spreading rumors that Chinese spacecraft are abusing aliens on the moon, which is really outrageous.
[BBC issued an article saying that China is abusing aliens]
Therefore, if the day really comes to impose sanctions on Taiwan Province, presumably even if the living conditions on the island are not bad, the United States and the West can describe Taiwan Province as a hell on earth.
If the United States and the West use military intervention to intervene, it will inevitably escalate China's internal problems into an international war, and the gains will outweigh the losses.
China's real strategy
Taiwan Province has been an inalienable territory of China since ancient times, and it is only a matter of time before Taiwan is recovered.
【Taiwan Question】
The discussion among the Chinese has never been "whether to recover Taiwan Province", but "how to recover Taiwan Province as much as possible".
Whether militarily or economically, the Chinese have long grasped the initiative on the Taiwan Strait issue, and the direction of our efforts is to return Taiwan Province not only territorially, but also ideologically.
【Chinese People's Liberation Army】
It may be that for the United States and the West, Taiwan Province is just a small island used to balance China, but for the Chinese, Taiwan Island is our ancestors and ancestors who have been connected by blood for generations, and what we have always pursued is a happy reunion between relatives.
Resources:
[1] After the "theory of destroying Taiwan", the United States was exposed to the "theory of abandoning Taiwan", Taiwan media: The United States betrayed its allies and it is difficult to write about it
[2] Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council: This is "self-destruction"!
[3] If the People's Liberation Army "shifts from exercise to war", will Lai Qingde defend Taipei? There is only an "escape plan"!
[3] BBC smeared Chinese spacecraft for abusing aliens on the moon Sina Finance