Sentence / Zishu
On June 18, 2024, First New Sound and Yixun Technology officially released the "2024 China Transportation Industry Digital Twin Market Research Report" and successfully held an online press conference.
Since 2017, Gartner has included digital twins in its "Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends" for three consecutive years. At present, digital twins have shown unique business value in the fields of aerospace, industrial production, and urban management, and have begun to show great business potential.
With the in-depth development of a new round of global scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, new means of transportation, new modes of transportation and new infrastructure, such as autonomous driving, smart railways, smart highways, smart water transport and smart aviation, are emerging, promoting traditional transportation into the era of digitalization, intelligence and greening, and injecting new impetus into the construction of a transportation power. Digital twins have ushered in a new round of development opportunities in the transportation industry.
In order to gain an in-depth understanding of the digitalization and intelligent development of the transportation industry, the main scenarios and core pain points, First New Sound and Shanghai Yixun Information Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Yixun Technology) jointly carried out a digital twin market research on China's transportation industry, during which it received strong support from a number of digital managers and industry experts. After months of market research, interviews, exchanges, and research work, the "2024 Digital Twin Market Research Report on China's Transportation Industry" was officially released.
The online press conference of this report invited Chen Guanghui, vice president of technology of Yixun Technology, and Dr. Gu Xudi of CRRC Industrial Investment Co., Ltd. to discuss the opportunities and challenges of the transportation industry under the wave of digital twins.
During the review conference, there were many highlights, such as the release and interpretation of the "2024 Digital Twin Market Research Report on China's Transportation Industry", roundtable dialogues and exchanges.
01
Interpretation of the digital twin market research report in the transportation industry
Yao Yi, founder and CEO of First New Voice, released and interpreted the "2024 Digital Twin Market Research Report on China's Transportation Industry".
According to a 2021 description by Li Xiaopeng, Minister of Transport, China's transportation industry has undergone a historic transformation from "bottleneck constraints" to "overall relief" to "basic adaptation".
From 2016 to the present, 35,300 kilometers of the main corridor of China's "eight vertical and eight horizontal" high-speed rail network have been completed and put into operation, accounting for 80%.
The key task in the next step is to adjust from the transportation capacity guarantee to the digital, intelligent and green era.
【Highlight 1】
In 2025, the overall market size is expected to reach 7.35 billion yuan, of which the industry solution market will account for about 60%
From 2022 to 2025, the overall market size of digital twins in China's transportation industry is expected to maintain a growth trend, and the overall market size will reach 7.35 billion yuan in 2025, of which the industry solution market will account for about 60% and the technology/product market size will account for about 40%.
Insight 1: "Four-network integration" to promote the development of the industry;
Insight 2: Five pilot projects for transportation powerhouses will drive the growth of the digital twin market;
Insight 3: Digital twins are an important guarantee for the integration of three defenses;
Insight 4: Intelligent transformation brings broader demand for the next phase of digital twins.
【Highlight 2】
There are five major pain points in the digital transformation process of the transportation industry
According to the research of First New Voice, there are five major pain points in the digital transformation process of the transportation industry, including personnel management pain points, equipment management pain points, data island management pain points, data standard pain points, data capability pain points, etc.
【Highlight 3】
Technological development provides a guarantee for the implementation of digital twins
Technological development has provided an important guarantee for the implementation of digital twins in China's transportation industry. Digital twin technology includes three categories: digital support technology, twin construction technology and human-computer interaction technology, which are constantly evolving and developing to jointly improve the real-time, accuracy, flexibility and interactivity of digital twins.
【Highlight 4】
Five application scenarios of subway safety and intelligent operation and maintenance
(1) Intelligent train operation and maintenance: The basic information of the train, the online operation status, the fault information, and the overall status of the fleet are presented in the comprehensive monitoring system. It is convenient for the maintenance team to quickly and intuitively obtain key information and improve the efficiency of management decision-making and response.
(2) Multi-domain intelligent O&M: Multi-domain intelligent O&M is based on the four major centers of monitoring, emergency response, analysis, and health, covering multiple professional fields such as signal, communication, and comprehensive monitoring.
(3) Passenger flow analysis: Passenger flow model is constructed through deep learning to predict short-term passenger flow, short-term passenger flow, cross-sectional passenger flow, typical day or large-scale event passenger flow. Effectively assist the dispatching department to predict and guide passenger flow in a timely manner.
(4) Subway energy consumption management: The net energy consumption of subway traction is composed of traction energy consumption and renewable energy, of which renewable energy is closely related to the organization of traffic transportation.
(5) Vehicle log analysis: First, the vehicle log analysis uses OMAP logs and IOM vehicle alarm records as sources to realize the statistical analysis, cause location analysis and data law mining of specified events. Second, the statistical analysis of the event is mainly based on multiple dimensions such as time, driver number, train number, station, train, etc., and the results are displayed in the IOM terminal in the form of charts. Third, the cause location analysis of an event is to analyze the correlation between the event and a number of known events. When an event occurs, determine the cause of the event by checking the real-time and recent historical status of the associated item.
02
Industry Dialogue
At the press conference, 3 guests participated in the "Transportation Industry, the Status Quo and Pain Points of Digital Twins?" The roundtable dialogue will elaborate and discuss the opportunities and challenges of the transportation industry under the wave of digital twins from the perspectives of their respective enterprises and industries.
Q (Yao Yi, founder and CEO of First New Voice): The 2021 "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Modern Comprehensive Transportation System" proposes to improve the level of digital and intelligent development of transportation and break down the institutional and institutional obstacles that restrict the high-quality development of transportation. According to the analysis of First New Voice, the digital twin market size of China's transportation industry will be 5.33 billion yuan in 2023, of which the market share of railway transportation will be 42%, road transportation 25%, and water transportation 19%.
I would like to ask the two guests, what is the main value of digital twins in the high-quality development of the transportation industry? What is the current state of the application?
Dr. Gu Xudi (CRRC Industrial Investment Co., Ltd.): First of all, in the past ten years, the transportation industry has developed by leaps and bounds, and great achievements have been made, and the layout of the railway network has been continuously improved.
For example, the development of railway transportation has changed from the earliest steam locomotives to diesel locomotives, from electric locomotives to EMUs and Fuxing high-speed railways, and the locomotive industry has also achieved a leap from scratch and from backwardness to catching up.
I was very impressed that when I was in college, it took me more than 10 hours to take a train from Shandong to Beijing, but now it only takes two hours to arrive.
At present, nearly 80% of the "eight vertical and eight horizontal" planning has been completed, what work should we do next, it is indeed a problem that every railway worker needs to think about, digitalization is the inevitable choice of the industry, especially the digital fusion technology in many transportation and field scenarios, which will become more and more refined and efficient in the future. At present, most of the application scenarios in the industry are breakthroughs, and the breakthroughs in high-end technologies, including market applications, have a long way to go, and they still need to rely on certain policies or national leadership to promote.
Q (Yao Yi, Founder and CEO of First New Voice): Dr. Gu, you just mentioned that "there are still breakthroughs in the application scenarios in the industry", from your observations, what points do you feel have made breakthroughs at present? Is the breakthrough at this point the data fusion of digital twins and artificial intelligence, or the application of other new technologies (such as integrated scheduling in station sections or equipment operation management)?
A (Dr. Gu Xudi of CRRC Industrial Investment Co., Ltd.): For example, the smart maintenance section, the wheels are overhauled first, and the automatic wheel decomposition, material supply, ERP online, etc.
In a certain maintenance vehicle depot, there is a bottleneck of line network resources, such as when going back and forth to the crane, there are a total of two lines to call back and forth to the library, storage and outbound, there are about 18 trains of vehicles to be overhauled, the original line deployment is basically carried out by manpower, and now through a certain model input, process optimization and digital twin technology, the entire intelligent maintenance section reduces human interference, and basically realizes automation.
Q (Yao Yi, Founder and CEO of First New Voice): What are the main points of the value of digital twins in the high-quality development of the transportation industry? What is the current state of the application?
A (Chen Guanghui, Vice President of Technology of Yixun Technology): Taking the railway as an example, large-scale infrastructure construction has been basically completed, and the current follow-up work is mainly in two aspects, one is operation, and the other is operation and maintenance. How to improve the efficiency of operations and operations is very critical, and I think digital twin technology will play a very big role in this.
At present, the prospect of the transportation industry is promising, but it has not yet formed economies of scale and lacks top-level planning. Customers are also actively exploring the use of digital twins, and the potential demand has not been fully released. Secondly, there is no series connection and integration of various professional sections, such as the locomotive depot and the electrical depot, etc., which need to be connected and top-level planning needs to be made, so that the integration of multiple specialties can give full play to the value of data.
Q (Yao Yi, founder and CEO of First New Voice): According to the first new sound survey, there are five major pain points in the high-quality development process of the transportation industry: such as traditional human management difficulties, complex equipment system management difficulties, serious data island phenomenon, inconsistent industry standards, poor data quality, etc.
Taking railway transportation as an example, I would like to ask the two guests, what do you think is the core pain point at present? To what extent does a digital twin solution solve the corresponding challenges? To what extent can or do you want to achieve results?
A (Dr. Gu Xudi of CRRC Industrial Investment Co., Ltd.): First, the core pain points, such as human management, data islands, maintenance, electrical services, testing sections, and maintenance personnel including accessories. From multiple perspectives, there are deep-seated pain points, the isolation between professions cannot form a closed loop of data, and there is a lack of all-round cycle management.
Second, to what extent can the digital twin solve the corresponding problems, on the contrary, the first problem to be solved by the railway is not a technical problem such as breaking through a high-performance material, but more of an engineering problem.
For enterprises that do data twins or artificial intelligence data, who can solve the pain points, such as the integration of related machine maintenance, electrical services, maintenance, operation and maintenance and other related data links, who can form an industry, and finally improve benefits through the overall solution.
Q (Yao Yi, founder and CEO of First New Voice): Yixun Technology has actually been deeply involved in the railway industry for many years, with thousands of digital twin models.
A (Chen Guanghui, Vice President of Technology of Yixun Technology): Yixun Technology has formed a full-stack of products and solutions in the field of digital twins, including: Internet of Things platform, data collection, data governance, data model development, 3D visualization, AI algorithm platform, in the field of rail transit, we have accumulated a lot of algorithm models and 3D visualization models in the rail transit industry, which can greatly reduce the cost and development cycle of digital twin development in the rail transit industry.
In addition, as Dr. Gu said, whoever can integrate the data of various specialties in the industry will have great opportunities for growth, a typical example is the recent subway project, the customer chose us as a partner because we have both experience in vehicle data, and have done professional data capabilities such as signaling, maintenance, and public affairs. As Dr. Gu said, while there are problems, there will also be great opportunities.
Q (Yao Yi, founder and CEO of First New Voice): In the view of Mr. Guanghui, if you are asked to sort or choose the five core pain points, what do you think are the core pain points? To what extent can digital twin solutions in the industry solve the corresponding pain points and problems?
A (Yixun Technology Vice President of Technology Chen Guanghui): Human management is related to the positioning of each company, we are positioned as a technology company, more is to cooperate with some large system integration companies in the industry, involving all aspects of management and coordination, the integrator will directly face these problems, we are more exposed to some problems at the technical level.
From a technical point of view, the previous system was basically built in a vertical chimney, and there was a serious problem of data islands. And there is no relevant data standard, including part of the data collection of the Internet of Things, the old equipment can not provide the interface for data collection, can only be through the camera or by increasing the temperature, humidity vibration of these sensors, to do some plug-in to solve the corresponding data collection work. We prefer to solve the problem from the perspective of technologies such as digital twins.
Q (Yao Yi, Founder and CEO of First New Voice): According to Professor Tao Fei's "Digital Twin Capability Maturity Model" of Beihang University, the maturity of digital twins is divided into 6 levels: "Imitation of reality with virtual (L0), reflection of reality with virtual (L1), control of reality with virtual (L2), pre-reality with virtual (L3), excellent reality with virtual (L4), and symbiosis between virtual and real (L5)".
I would like to ask Dr. Shiratani, taking the railway system as an example, from your observations, what level of capability do you think the digital twin solution is the most urgent need in the industry at present? Or do you think it's the most worthy of application and promotion for all railway systems?
A (Dr. Gu Xudi of CRRC Industrial Investment Co., Ltd.): From the perspective of Professor Tao Fei's digital maturity model, the needs are different, and the level of each piece is different, among which the L3 and L4 levels have a lot of room for future development.
We have come into contact with a demand, the foreign object invasion scenario of the railway, also called disaster warning or prediction. For example, in terms of the implementation of high-speed railways on slopes and landslides to tracks, if the virtual digital twin is used to predict the occurrence of disasters, the current demand of the industry is more urgent.
In the road, bridge, tunnel and other key points of monitoring, monitoring including early warning, in fact, all rely on artificial, although there are also railway smart boxes, including sensors, temperature and humidity monitoring railway to prevent distortion and deformation, but for the model mentioned by Professor Cao Hui, to the virtual prereality, the safety of the railway is more urgent.
The first thing is to ensure safety, the second is to ensure efficiency, and the third is to ensure efficiency.
Q (Yao Yi, founder and CEO of First New Voice): Yixun Technology actually has a mature digital twin solution development process, and has built thousands of models in some scenarios. The result?
A (Chen Guanghui, Vice President of Technology of Yixun Technology): Yixun has accumulated full-stack technology platform and solution capabilities, and has the ability to achieve L0 to L5 level digital twin solutions, and at present, from the specific delivery point of view, most of them are still in L1 to L3, for example, we have established a model for the health of equipment in terms of intelligent operation and maintenance of rail transit, and can give some suggestions on when and what kind of maintenance and repair of equipment.
In fact, most of the solutions are still in the stage of reflecting the real with the virtual, and there are not many in the railway field to control the real with the virtual, because there are many devices involved in security, and its control requires various permissions, and even some have higher security requirements, reaching SIL4 level, which will not do reverse control. Of course, it may be in non-safe areas, such as controlling some lights, barriers, etc., such as the one-button switch station of the subway.
Q (Yao Yi, founder and CEO of First New Voice): In May this year, the "2024 China CIO Digital Product Selection White Paper" released by the First New Sound Research Institute shows that among the top ten digital issues that CIOs are most concerned about in 2024, the top two are: data intelligence - big data analysis and prediction, and large models empowering new quality productivity. Coincidentally, in this "Digital Twin Market Report", we also found that artificial intelligence technology has begun to be integrated into digital twins, providing new value in intelligent operation management, simulation deduction, data analysis, etc., and empowering the development of the industry.
I would like to ask Dr. Gu, taking the railway system as an example, in your opinion, what scenarios will you pay attention to the empowerment of artificial intelligence technology, especially large models, in the industry? What did you help solve?
A (Dr. Gu Xudi of CRRC Industrial Investment Co., Ltd.): In the past six months, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) and the state-owned enterprises have signed a contract to open up industrial scenarios and production scenarios.
From our point of view, all the big models are easy to do, but it's not suitable for the industrial sector, which is more of a vertical model.
The digital twin architecture is "data + model + knowledge", but it lacks one key item, which is the driving force, and the driving force is the algorithm.
First, the subway is a typical and good application scenario, for example, the life span of China's subway is about 30 years, while the longest life of Japan's subway can reach 70 years, because many of their key prices have reached the level of state repair, especially the subway is a particularly money-burning industry, which can help the government reduce a lot of debt for various local governments that are burdened with a lot of local debt.
Second, the future market space of the big railway will far exceed that of several orders of magnitude of subways, such as maintenance and maintenance, especially smart operation and maintenance, which can be modified from the original plan to the current state of repair, which can save great costs. Under the premise of having its own core algorithm, there is a lot of room for development in the future. In particular, do not give up the diversified environment, and dig into various scenarios such as transportation organization, emergency management, and scheduling. Such as passenger management, personnel organization optimization of passenger stations, management of freight stations, etc.
Q (Yao Yi, founder and CEO of First New Voice): Yixun Technology has certain advantages in subway industry solutions, and has done corresponding multi-scenario integration for customers. In the future, there will be digital housekeepers to assist industry practitioners, how to integrate with digital twin solutions to help customers provide better solutions?
A (Chen Guanghui, Vice President of Technology of Yixun Technology): The general large model is not suitable for special scenarios, including the problems faced by localized deployment, data privacy, etc., and its accuracy has big problems. However, the large model of the industry has a large application scenario.
In the future, the large model will have a greater impact on the development of the transportation industry, and the integration of digital twins, if we imagine the future, we believe that it will not replace labor, but in the future, each position may have a large model assistant to improve efficiency.
Each model is similar to the role of NPC in the game, in a specific scenario, such as a signalman, when doing maintenance problems encountering problems, you can directly talk to the model, he can tell you where to look for the corresponding manual and similar cases, so as to improve work efficiency.
Q (Yao Yi, Founder and CEO of First New Voice): In terms of the application of large models in the transportation industry, Dr. Gu, what do you think it can imagine?
A (Dr. Gu Xudi, CRRC Industrial Investment Co., Ltd.): The future of the large model of the railway industry may take shape in the form of ecology or trees. For example, the railway has vehicles, station sections, roads, bridges, and water, and it also has N small models of professional directions integrated together, and at the same time, there will be all kinds of knowledge throughout all kinds of models.
Problems that can be solved by large models,
First, the large model is the key driver to serve the railway transportation industry.
Second, in the future, we need to open up data and trade data assets. Realize the "aggregation", "communication" and "use" of data. For example, the application of subdivision scenarios - Fuxing EMU, its head shape has been calculated N generation, involving a lot of data problems, such as streamlining, routes, etc., if you have a certain line conditions, you can automatically adapt to some head cars for transportation.
In the future, the premise of relying on the accumulation of data flow must be the transaction of data assets.
Looking forward to the future, First New Voice will continue to pay close attention to high-growth enterprises in China's transportation field, focus on benchmark service providers, and investment institutions active in this field, etc., in the wave of "digital twins", embrace the digital needs of the market, and jointly build a new digital civilization.