#长文创作激励计划#
Iran's general election is in the finals, "reformists" versus "conservatives", who will become the new president? Khamenei gave his successor a "preventive shot" in advance, and Iran's attitude towards the United States may become tougher.
On June 29, local time, Iran's Ministry of Internal Affairs announced the results of the first round of presidential elections, in which hard-line representatives, Jalili, the chief representative in charge of the Iran nuclear negotiations, and Pezeshkian, the reformist representative, received 38.6% and 42.5% support respectively.
According to the rules of Iran's presidential election, if no one receives more than 50% of the votes in the first round, the two candidates with the highest number of votes will enter the second round to determine the winner.
The representative of the Iranian "reformists" is Pezeshkian
Therefore, the second round of the Iranian presidential election on July 5 will be decided between Jalili and Pezeshkian.
So, what are the characteristics of these two candidates? If one of them is elected, what kind of changes will it bring to Iran's political situation? First of all, in terms of support in the first round, the support of Pezeshkian, the representative of the reformists, is higher than that of the hard-line candidate Jalili.
But that doesn't mean Pezeshkian is more likely to win, because all but Pezeshkian of the four people in the first round of Iran's presidential election are hardliners or conservatives, and in Iran's current political climate, they are about the same faction.
In other words, the overall support of Iran's conservatives is greater than that of the reformers, which is also easy to understand, as a theocratic country, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the pillar of the conservatives, and with him, it will be more difficult for the reformers to win.
The representative of the Iranian "hardliners" is Jalili
From the perspective of governing philosophy, the biggest difference between Iran's conservatives and reformers is probably the different attitudes towards the West. Conservatives, as well as hardliners within conservatives, have always maintained that Iran cannot compromise with the United States and the West if it wants to develop its own economy and safeguard its national security.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also said in particular that "those who depend on the United States will not be able to govern the country well." Of course, the meaning of Khamenei's sentence is mainly to convey the dissatisfaction with the reformists.
Conservatives, or hardliners, on the other hand, advocate continuing Iran's current policies, maintaining its independence, opposing the path of US hegemony in the Middle East, and not making compromises with the United States.
Objectively speaking, there are complex historical reasons for the formation of these two factions in Iran. On the one hand, before the Islamic Revolution in Iran in the seventies and eighties, the United States was an ally of Iran, and the Pahlavi dynasty was supported by the United States, which made the United States have a relatively profound influence in Iran, which is reflected in many aspects such as Iranian culture and Iranian political leadership.
U.S.-Iran relations
Later, after the victory of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, relations between the United States and Iran deteriorated completely, and contradictions arose between the two sides.
But on the other hand, in the 40 years since the Islamic Revolution in Iran, Iranian conservatives have been in power, but due to the sanctions imposed by the United States and Western countries, especially the special targeting of the United States, Iran, as an oil-producing country, has not been able to develop economically.
The economic base determines the superstructure, and when Iran's economic development encounters problems and the people's living standards cannot be improved, public resentment will naturally be directed at the current ruler. In other words, although Iranian conservatives still hold the power in Iran, domestic dissatisfaction with conservatives has contributed to the growth of reformers.
At present, the situation in the Middle East is relatively special, the confrontation between the United States and Iran is becoming more and more serious, and a larger war may break out at any time in the Middle East due to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and Iran, as the backer of the armed forces such as Hamas in Palestine and Allah in Lebanon, is very easy to be drawn into the war.
The situation in the Middle East
Once faced with the threat of war, public opinion in Iran will naturally split into two factions: the hardliners advocate fighting the United States to the end and are not afraid of a war, while the reformers hope to improve relations with the United States and the West to avoid the war involving Iran itself.
The current situation is that the Iranian government, that is, the conservative politicians, wants to fight the United States without compromising with the United States, but also does not want to get involved in the conflict.
All in all, the position is more complicated. In fact, the current reformers are not purely pro-American, and those forces and people who advocate that Iran must improve relations with the West and fiercely oppose domestic conservatives have long been marginalized or eliminated by Khamenei.
Even some hard-line politicians who advocate secularism, such as former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, are not able to enter the finals of the presidential election, and Iran's committee responsible for reviewing presidential candidates does not qualify him for the presidential election.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
That is to say, the reformers and conservatives who are currently vying for the presidency of Iran are in fact partially recognized by Khamenei, or the powerful theocratic conservative religious scholars and election commissions in Iran, and they are not the same thing as comprador politicians manipulated by the United States.
Judging from the results of the election, although Khamenei is 85 years old, as long as he is there, the probability of the conservatives winning this presidential election is a little higher.
However, judging from the 42.5% support rate in the first round of the election, the political undercurrent in Iran is still relatively intense. To put it in layman's terms, it is the combination of various reasons that the Iranian people are not very satisfied with the current rulers, and even have opinions about the conservatives.
Opposing the United States, insisting on independence and self-determination, and not making compromises with the West is, of course, a proposition that the majority of the Iranian people are more willing to accept, but the problem is that Iran has been in such a "hard bar" relationship with the West for decades, and the domestic economy has not been able to develop, which will cause public opinion.
U.S. President Joe Biden
Coupled with the covert promotion of the United States and Western countries, Khamenei and the conservative ruling clique surrounding him are actually facing greater pressure.
Therefore, the key is not whether the candidate is a reformist or a hardliner, nor whether the candidate wants to be tough on the United States or improve relations with the West, but whether he can point out and find a way for the Iranian people to develop the economy.
In this sense, the result of the Iranian presidential election itself is not too suspenseful, and the important thing is whether the newly elected president can lead Iran's economic development, which is the most concerned issue for the Iranian people.