#猪价大涨意味猪周期结束吗? #
According to the latest data from the Ministry of Agriculture, the number of fertile sows in May 2024 was 39.96 million, an increase of 0.2% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%. It can be seen that the reduction in the supply of live pigs in 2024 is the basis for supporting the rise in pig prices.
Judging from the trend of pig prices, pig prices began to show a significant upward inflection point in April, and the first "highlight moment" of pig prices in 2024 will be from June 11 to June 12, when most areas reached 9.56-10 yuan, and the price of 30 kg piglets reached a high point of 800 yuan. Entering July, can fattening pigs and piglets continue to soar?
First, the key to the trend of pig prices in July is the second breeding
From the perspective of fattening supply and demand, the supply of woolly pigs in July increased compared with June, and the weight increased. The performance of the demand side is average, and on the premise of similar prices, there is little change from June.
The key to breaking the situation in July is the "second breeding", and the sentiment of the second fattening and the number of pigs will be an important factor affecting the rise and fall of pig prices in July.
As far as the second breeding is concerned, according to market feedback, most of the two breeding that have been slaughtered have made money, and the cost of catching pigs is about 600 yuan for most of the cost of 7.34-8.23 yuan, and the cost of catching pigs in the Northeast is about 7 yuan, and the weight of the slaughter is 400 pounds, and the profit of a pig is as high as 1,000 yuan. Most of the pig farmers who make money from the second breeding are ready to continue to pay the pig price in the later stage of the pig Bo.
At the end of June and the beginning of July, Liaoning, Shandong, Hebei, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangxi and other regions have pigs, most of the prices are 8.78-9.23 yuan, compared with the cost of the first two batches. However, it should be noted that with the increase in the cost of secondary breeding and pig catching, the profit margin of late slaughter is also narrowing. Especially during mid-June, there was still 10.56 yuan of second education, and some of them are still in the red. Therefore, pig farmers who have the upper second breeding plan also need to combine their own financial situation and risk tolerance arrangements.
At the end of June, the second breeding also supported the price increase of large standard pigs, and the current cumulative increase of 5-8 gross in 3 days, and the increase in retail standard pigs was smaller, most of which were 2-4 cents. On July 1, the price difference between the north and the south retail investors was smaller, most of them were around 9-9.4 yuan, and the pig price in early and middle of July or maintained a weak trend of shock, and the opportunity to rise again at the end of July and early August.
Second, the price of piglets has peaked
At the end of May and the beginning of June, the highest 30-kilogram piglets in the north reached 800 yuan a head, but with the increase in the supply of large fields, the demand for piglets to fill the pen decreased, and the price of piglets also peaked and fell. As of July 1, the price of 30 catties of piglets was around 720-730 yuan.
For pig farms that plan to fill the piglets, you can wait and see for the time being, piglet prices will likely continue to decline in the second half of the year, and the cost of entering the market at the right price and time is lower.
On the whole, the high point of piglets this year may have passed, and 30 catties of 800 yuan are basically the top. For fattening pigs, the price from June 11th to 12th is basically the high point of this wave of pig prices. Where is the next high? Pig farmers can wait until the end of July and the beginning of August to see!