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Seeing that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not stopped, other countries are fighting again! It is reported that the crisis of war has resurfaced in Africa. Libya and neighboring Algeria have renewed military standoffs over 32,000 square kilometers of territory. It is reported that the Libyan army has deployed a large number of troops in the border area with Algeria, threatening to return the land or take it by force. It is 32,000 square kilometres of land in southeastern Algeria that Libya is asking for restitution, in the Algerian province of Ilizi. It is the third largest province in Algeria by area, but it is quite sparsely populated. Libya has long claimed the land, but the two countries have not clashed over the years.
Now it is competing with Libya for territory, and Libya probably does not have the strength. Libya is now divided into two parts after a civil war. In the west is the internationally recognized National Assembly government, while in the east is the secular government controlled by the Libyan National Army. And this time, it is the Libyan government forces in the west that will compete with Algeria for territory. It is important to know that the Libyan government army has been defeated in the civil war and has lost many oil fields in the east. It does not have much advantage at home, and it still has to provoke wars with its neighbors, and I don't know where the confidence comes from, and the Western countries are mired in two conflicts, will they have the spare strength to support them at this time?
More importantly, Algeria is not weak militarily and is a military power in Africa.
According to a ranking published by the Global Firepower website last year, Algeria has the second largest military power in Africa, after Egypt. Algeria has a total force of 465,000, including 130,000 regular troops, 135,000 reservists, and 200,000 other paramilitary forces. The Algerian armed forces are equipped with more than 500 aircraft, more than 1,700 tanks, and more than 200 warships, which are even about the same size as France. In recent years, Algeria has invested 5.6% of its GDP in military construction, and its military spending ranks among the top three Arab countries, second only to Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
Russia and China have long been the main arms suppliers to Algeria, as early as 2006 Algeria ordered a number of S300PMU2 long-range anti-aircraft missiles, and later purchased dozens of Su-30 and MiG-29 fighters. In addition, the Algerian army is armed with the Pantsir S1 air defense system, T-90 main battle tanks, and even Iskander E tactical missiles. In addition, it was previously reported that Algeria would purchase Su-57 fighters, which is expected to become the first country in Africa to be equipped with fifth-generation aircraft. And Algeria is also armed with Chinese-made assault rifles, PLZ45 self-propelled guns, SR-5 rocket artillery. All of this equipment has enhanced the combat capability of the Algerian army, making it a hegemon in Africa.
In addition to these superficial military forces, Algeria has a strong military potential as a country with a large territory and a relatively large population. Looking through history, in the era of colonialism, the resistance of the French colonizers of the Algea team was almost uninterrupted, and it was a notoriously tough bone in Africa. Under pressure, in order to appease Algeria, France even granted citizenship to the country's people, and even had Algerian seats in parliament. Eventually, Algeria also succeeded in gaining independence from the French colonial system by military means. When France wanted to intervene militarily in Niger, Algeria dared to say that it would respond.
From this point of view, the Algerian and Libyan government forces are not at all a level of opponents, and the Libyan government forces must be well aware of this. Therefore, the intensification of military deployments in the border areas, which claims to regain territory, may be just another political maneuver to ease domestic pressure and gain popular support.
In addition, the peace agreement failed to quell the tension between the civilian forces and the military junta, and the civil war in Myanmar broke out again. According to a June 29 report by Al Jazeera, the De'ang National Liberation Army, one of the "Three Brothers' Alliance" of Myanmar's people-and-ground armed forces, announced the resumption of military operations and launched another offensive against the Myanmar junta. Since Tuesday, the militant group has rallied with other allied forces to launch attacks against Myanmar government forces in Kyaukmei and Noengekio towns in the northern Shan State region, as well as in Mogok town in northern Mandalay province, according to the group. The map shows that all three towns are southwest of Lashio, and the aim of the De'ang National Army may be to march on the largest town in northern Myanmar.
The Ta'ang National Liberation Army claimed that the resumption of the offensive was due to repeated violations of previous ceasefire agreements by Burmese government forces. They accused the Burmese army of repeatedly attacking the group's facilities and personnel since May. A month earlier, Ta'ang National Liberation Army had warned the Burmese army that it would respond if it violated the ceasefire again. However, the Burmese army continued to provoke, so the civilian forces resumed military operations again. In previous conflicts, the Burmese government army has been losing and retreating, and this resumption of fighting may still not be able to suffer losses.
According to public information, the De'ang National Liberation Army is an armed faction of the Liberation Front of Banglong State. The Front is a political organization founded by Da Ai Peng and Da Bang Jue, both of whom come from the marginal ethnic minority groups of De'ang. Since the 2021 coup in Myanmar, the Ta'ang National Army has consolidated its grip on the northern territory of Shan State. And the organization has won the support of the people of De'ang by actively enforcing a strict anti-drug policy and integrating different communities under a common national identity. In the aftermath of the 2021 coup, the Taaw-Ang National Liberation Army (NAPLA) was able to further expand its sphere of influence as the Burmese army largely withdrew from northern Shan State while it was busy dealing with other fronts.
While the civilian forces have expanded their sphere of influence, the Burmese army's control over the local areas has been significantly weakened. Since launching a new offensive last October, Myanmar's junta has lost control of more areas, especially in the border areas. Since the launch of the "1027" military operation, the civilian armed forces have made significant progress. Occupied northern and eastern Myanmar, border areas with China and Thailand. There are also some military posts and border towns in the western part of Myanmar's border with Bangladesh and India. Moreover, the Burmese junta is not well received in ASEAN, and even the United Nations has urged international banks to stop supporting the Burmese junta, which shows how isolated the Burmese junta is.
In the context of internal and external troubles, Myanmar recently sent a key figure to China for help. According to information released by the Chinese diplomatic department, former Myanmar President Thein Sein will visit China in the near future. Considering the current tense situation in Myanmar, the purpose of Thein Sein's visit is not simple. Thein Sein himself is a member of the government army and was elected president in 2011. After coming to power, he released a large number of political prisoners and dissidents, lifted the ban on private newspapers, and further opened up the market. His approach was welcomed by many people, including Aung San Suu Kyi, who also expressed her approval of his reform measures. During Thein Sein's visit to China, the situation in Myanmar will inevitably be the focus of exchanges between the two sides.
The Chinese side has previously stated that it still supports the restoration of stability in Myanmar as soon as possible and is willing to provide help and support for the peace talks. The ceasefire agreement reached by the parties was reached under the mediation of the Chinese side. At present, the armed forces are once again attacking the junta, and the isolated junta will inevitably want to win China's support, or at the very least, urge all parties to resume peace talks.
Not long ago, our coast guard could say that it had achieved a great victory in the South China Sea, but the main reason for the instability in the South China Sea was in the Philippines. So why does the Philippines, a small country with weak military power, dare to constantly launch provocations against China? It mainly relies on the support of the United States, Japan and other countries. According to foreign media reports, including AFP, Japan and the Philippines are scheduled to hold diplomatic and defense "2+2" talks in Manila on July 8 to strengthen strategic relations and discuss regional issues. Officials from both countries told The Associated Press that during the talks, the two sides could sign a Reciprocal Access Agreement, which would allow the two countries' militaries to visit each other's territory. In essence, the United States wants to win over Japan to intervene in the South China Sea and once again break through the principle of exclusive defense.
Japan and the Philippines join forces, then it is not the relationship between the chess pieces and the chess players, it is a typical embarrassment. The Philippines cannot compete with China in terms of military strength or coast guard strength, and only relies on the support of the United States and the Philippines. Japan, on the other hand, has contradictions with the mainland in the East China Sea, especially the Diaoyu Islands. China's patrols in the East China Sea have left Japan powerless to respond. Therefore, Japan hopes to reduce the pressure on the East China Sea by supporting the Philippines and containing China. Japan has previously provided the Philippines with a number of coast guard vessels, and later intends to provide the Philippines with multiple sets of coastal surveillance radars to enhance situational awareness in the South China Sea. It is expected that during the 2+2 consultations, the two sides may further discuss the issue of providing support.
However, the previous support has been mainly limited to the coast patrol, and after the signing of the Reciprocal Access Agreement, Japan will be able to formally enter into military cooperation with the Philippines. Previously, Japan's Self-Defense Forces had participated in the US-Philippine "shoulder-to-shoulder" military exercise as an "observer," and in the future, Japan's Self-Defense Forces will be able to formally participate in such exercises. This means that if there is another crisis in the South China Sea, Japan can also intervene in the event of a military confrontation between China and the United States. You must know that Japan itself is a country with no weak military strength, especially its maritime military strength ranks among the top in the world, and the impact of its involvement in the South China Sea cannot be underestimated.
Not only in the South China Sea, but also in the South China Sea, the United States and Japan are interested in intervening in the South China Sea issue, which is China's internal affair. Recently, Paparo, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, claimed that he would turn the Taiwan Strait into a "no man's hell" with various unmanned combat equipment to prevent the mainland from recovering Taiwan. In response, Defense Ministry spokesman Wu Qian said that the PLA has always dared to fight tough battles and won battles when it comes to defending national sovereignty and territorial integrity and countering interference by external forces. The PLA has never accepted the threats and intimidation of certain people. China firmly opposes the US intensification of military deployment and inciting confrontation. But the Chinese do not cause trouble and are not afraid of it; if people do not offend me, I will not offend others, and if people offend me, I will offend others.
More than just verbal warnings, the PLA is also taking practical actions. Some time ago, before and after the confrontation between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, four PLA 055 ships appeared in the South China Sea, circumnavigated the Philippines and held military exercises. Recently, Agence France-Presse reported that a commercial satellite once again photographed the Shandong ship leaving the port and appearing in the coastal waters of the Philippines with a sense of deterrence. The presence of new maritime combat forces, including aircraft carriers and 10,000-ton drives, in the South China Sea can effectively safeguard the mainland's territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests. If the United States, Japan, the Philippines and other countries continue to launch provocations in the South China Sea, escalating the situation in the region and hindering China's development, then China will also take further and tougher actions.
If the United States continues to strengthen its military deployment in the Philippines and threaten the southeastern part of the mainland, sooner or later it will also force China to launch the Scarborough Shoal reclamation project for reciprocal deterrence. At that time, the Philippine capital will face a direct military threat, peace or war? Time and space are running out for the Philippines to adjust.