Straight news: Trump has been selected by the Republican Party as the presidential candidate, and Vance, the vice presidential candidate, has also been released. How do you think the market for Trump's victory has changed?
Special Commentator Chen Bing: After Trump was shot, not only was he successfully confirmed as the Republican presidential nominee, but Vance, who he nominated, was also uncontroversially elected as the vice presidential candidate. Judging from the Republican Party's two-day congress and the situation of the United States election, Trump's popularity is still rising, and the chances of winning the election are increasing.
First of all, the choice of Vance as the deputy of the "post-80s" not only makes up for the defect of Trump's age, but also Vance's experience of counterattacking from a countryman in the "Rust Belt" to a venture capitalist and senator also reflects that the "United States dream" can still be done, which will greatly attract the support of young people, and feel that the Republican Party still has an intergenerational inheritance.
Second, Trump's popularity with Silicon Valley's tech plutocrats may be a positive factor. His chosen deputy, Vance, was a Silicon Valley venture capitalist, and Tesla boss Elon Musk also supports Trump and is rumored to donate $45 million a month to support Trump's campaign. Many of Silicon Valley's tech tycoons support Trump, not only to get ample campaign funding, but also to broaden Trump's political spectrum, making him not only a spokesman for the working class in the "Rust Belt," but also a supporter of Silicon Valley's high technology.
Moreover, the Republican Convention achieved unity. The new generation of the party that criticized and challenged Trump in the past, such as former United States Ambassador to the United Nations Haley and Florida Governor Sandertis, all stood under the Trump banner and achieved reconciliation. United States media said Trump had become an "all-powerful Republican leader." In contrast, Biden on the Democratic side is still in the quagmire, first, whether he will run or withdraw from the election is still inconclusive, and the voices of the party calling for him to withdraw from the election are still non-stop; The second is the truckers union with 1.3 million members, which no longer supports Biden this year, which is a major setback for the Democratic Party's election.
Judging from the current election results, the Republican Trump has begun to charge with his election platform, while the Democratic Party has not even decided who will face the Republican Party in the end. So the Republicans are now temporarily ahead, and the odds of winning have increased dramatically. However, with four months to go before the election, it remains to be seen how long Trump's rally can last and whether he can take the White House. Trump's current approval rating is 3 percentage points higher than Biden's, and the gap is not very large.
Straight news: The Republican Party has established the presidential and vice presidential candidates, what do United States' allies think? Do they support Trump too?
Special Commentator Chen Bing: On the contrary, Trump was established as the presidential candidate by the Republican Party, which worries United States's allies; And Trump's election of Vance as his deputy has made United States' allies anxious. European experts warn that Trump's choice of Vance as his deputy is simply "terrible news," especially for Ukraine.
It can be said that the anxiety of United States' allies is mainly manifested in three aspects: First, will United States continue to support Ukraine? Because of Trump's "behind-the-scenes operations", the United States Congress delayed $60 billion in aid to Ukraine last year, causing Ukraine to retreat on the battlefield. Even though the United States Congress later approved the aid funds for Ukraine, Vance was selected as the vice presidential candidate in his first interview and said that Trump would end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict as soon as possible and turn his attention to China. Last spring, Vance was one of the main opponents of the new aid package for Ukraine, indifferent to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, believing it too distant for United States. And Trump's election of him as his deputy means that if Trump wins, he will quickly try to end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and it is estimated that Ukraine will cede territory to Russia, which is also not hesitating.
Second, what will be the fate of NATO? Trump is not interested in NATO, believing that it is not worth it for United States to provide 60% of the funds to provide security for Europe. Now if Trump wants to insist on ending the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, then it is a slap in the face of NATO, and the next question is can NATO still join forces to support Ukraine? If not, does that mean that NATO will be divided? In short, Vance said in February that he did not see Putin as an existential threat to Europe, that United States could not manufacture weapons to supply Ukraine, and that Europe must play a more active role in protecting its own security.
Third, what is the impact on the economy? Trump and Vance agree that "United States first" is focused on the domestic economy, treating foreign countries as leeks, cutting as much as they can, and lacking "allied consciousness." They have made tariff increases their main strategy to increase United States revenues and bring manufacturing back to United States, and they have announced that they will impose 60 percent tariffs not only on China, but also on other countries. United States tariffs on European imports are currently 2 to 4 percent, and a 10 percent tariff would damage the economies of allies.
Germany research shows that if Trump returned to the White House and imposed 10% tariffs as outlined in his election platform, Germany would lose 150 billion euros a year. United States imposition of tariffs on global goods will inevitably provoke retaliation from other countries, tear apart the relationship between United States and allies, and even cause global supply chain shocks, further undermining the global free trade system, slowing down the process of globalization, weakening the rules-based multilateral trading system, and the World Trade Organization will suffer another heavy blow. If the World Trade Organization (WTO) were to be crippled, the process of globalization would basically come to an end, and the world economy would return to the tribal era.
Author丨Chen Bing, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".
Editor丨Lai Chenlu, editor-in-chief of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News