Straight News: On October 7, the current round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will be one year anniversary, but the war in the Middle East has not been extinguished, but is expanding, what do you think of the future development of the situation in the Middle East?
Special Commentator Chen Bing: The Palestinian-Israeli war has been fought for a whole year, and what we see is that the flames of war are constantly expanding, rather than shrinking or extinguishing. The latest news is that the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) is no longer discussing a truce with Israel, and Israel has issued a letter of challenge to Iran as it continues to attack Lebanon Allah strongholds.
Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: "We have an obligation to respond to Iran, and we will do so." "The meaning of this is clear: to retaliate against Iran. Perhaps one morning we will see news of Israel missiles exploding inside Iran, targeting Iran's oil refineries, military installations or nuclear facilities, and the targets will determine the scale of future wars in the Middle East. If Israel attacks Iran's nuclear facilities, then Iran does not need to rack its brains to draft a declaration, and directly quote the words of the Israel Prime Minister as a letter of response, and may carry out a new round of strikes against Israel. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said that Iran's recent military actions are the "minimum punishment" for Israel, and that it will still fight back against Israel in due course in the future.
It is worth noting that the Israel side is "marching high", and Netanyahu is taking the successive assassinations of the Lebanon Allah leadership group as his "turnaround" moment. The Israeli army is not only expanding its front with Hamas and Lebanon's Allah Party, but is also preparing for a "major and severe" retaliation against Iran. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that on the first anniversary of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Israel will use large-scale military operations to "make a shame" and completely bury the "Al-Aqsa flood" with artillery fire.
We should also note that United States does not seem to have much influence over Israel, and United States President Joe Biden is sighing in a low voice, saying that "no United States president has done more than he has done more than Israel, but people just don't listen." Former President Trump, for his own election, called for Israel to "hit Iran's nuclear facilities if it wants." It can be said that Netanyahu is now "a wild horse on the loose", and no one can control where he runs. It is very likely that the war in the Middle East will continue to burn.
Straight News: So what do you think of the first anniversary of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict? Did Israel win? Who are the losers?
Special Commentator Chen Bing: On the first anniversary of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, it can be said that there are no winners, all losers. From the Israel side, after Hamas's surprise attack on Israel, more than 1,200 civilians were killed and 250 people from various countries were taken hostage, and Israel suffered an unprecedented security crisis, which also won the sympathy of most countries in the world. But from the moment Netanyahu vowed to destroy Hamas, Israel began to fail.
Israel's assault on Hamas, in disregard of the lives of other Palestinians, has bombed Gaza into rubble, killing 42,000 Palestinians, including 16,000 children. Civilians in the Gaza Strip have been forced south and north, and the entire population has been displaced, sowing the seeds of hatred for a new generation of young people. Although Hamas has been battered, it has not been eliminated, and more young people may join the armed group to fight back against Israel. Israeli forces have also been accused of war crimes, the Israel government has been accused of genocide, and Netanyahu's basic goals have not been achieved and he has put himself on the wrong track. Even college students in United States have staged protest demonstrations against Israel.
After a year of war, has Israel become safe? No. The surrounding anti-Israeli forces are fighting in a joint operation. The Arab world is ready to recognize Israel's right to exist, but now hesitates. This all shows that Israel is the loser. Hamas, on the other hand, is a big loser, not only has it been depleted, its proud underground combat network has been destroyed, its military capabilities have been dealt an unprecedented blow, and it is difficult for the Palestinians to trust it again, and it is difficult for the countries of the Middle East that want peace to think that it is an organization that can talk. It can be said that the "Al-Aqsa flood"-style violence has undermined the chances of a lasting compromise between Palestine and Israel. Lebanon's Allah Party is also a loser, especially the successive assassinations of the leading group, which will face difficulties in rebuilding in the future, and it will be difficult to become a capable armed group to contain Israel as it has been in the past.
Finally, United States appears to be unable to influence Israel's decision-making through political and diplomatic capabilities to effectively manage the Middle East crisis. United States rhetoric is becoming less and less effective, and this is the impression it leaves on the world. The United States and Western countries, which favor Israel, are at a loss in the face of humanitarian disasters, the expansion of war, and the destruction of human rights, and have hardly played a role, which has also greatly reduced the values they advocate and lost their influence. Fighting around, none of them are winners, all are losers.
Straight News: What impact will the Palestinian-Israeli conflict have on the economies of both sides if it lasts for a year? Does Israel still have the economic support to continue fighting?
Special Commentator Chen Bing: Economic support is needed to fight a war. So what is the impact of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict on the economies of both sides one year later?
Let's start with Palestine, which, according to the United Nations, has caused appalling economic damage as a result of Israel's military operations. By early 2024, 80 to 96 percent of agricultural facilities in the Gaza Strip have been destroyed, and food production capacity has been weakened. The Gaza Strip's gross domestic product plummeted 81 percent in the fourth quarter of last year and contracted by 22 percent for the year. As of June this year, the Gaza Strip's gross domestic product (GDP) was less than one-sixth of its 2022 level, and the employment pattern is particularly dire, with few jobs available.
Israel, by contrast, has been hit hard by the Gaza war for a year, with GDP growth estimated at just 1.1 percent this year. Economic engines such as tourism, construction and agriculture are "dying one after another," and all three major international rating agencies have downgraded Israel's sovereign rating. And that's not all. The most important thing is that the hostages are not fully brought back, which breaks the basic contract of Israel society and can have disastrous consequences for the entire national economy. The loss of some secular social elites, especially scientists, doctors, and teachers, will accelerate, and polls show that nearly a quarter of Israelis consider leaving the country. Israel's economy is supported by 400,000 people in the high-tech industry, of which 50,000 are core talents, mainly technical engineers and senior managers, and now the world is trying to recruit them.
According to the Israel media, if these people leave the country, Israel will immediately become Argentina. Therefore, the cessation of the war as soon as possible is at stake for the future of Israel's economy. The current performance of the Israel government has made the elite have no confidence in the future, some are leaving, some are planning to leave, and perhaps the damage caused by the Palestinian-Israeli war to the Israel economy is still to come, after the truce.
Author丨Chen Bing
Typesetting丨Ji Jin Wei
Editor丨Lai Chenlu
Reviewer丨Zeng Zijin
Producer丨Guan Yao