Since Modi began his third term, there have been frequent signals from India that it is trying to improve relations with China and end the border issue. Whether it is Prime Minister Modi's statement in an interview in April that "relations with China are very important", or Defense Minister Manmohan Singh's call for good-neighborliness and friendship with China and saying that border talks are progressing smoothly, all send positive signals that the India government intends to ease relations with China.
These are signs that the Modi government is re-examining its China strategy. One potentially significant change is that India may put the border dispute on hold for the time being and instead prioritize economic and trade cooperation with China. Although India has tried for years to reduce its dependence on China and push for economic "de-Chinaization", the reality is that trade ties between the two countries have not weakened, but have become closer.
In 2022, China-India trade exceeded US$136 billion, a record high, and China re-emerged as India's second largest trading partner. China is not only the largest supplier of key industries such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, textiles and chemicals to India, but also an important driving force for India's economic growth. Facts have proved that without the support of China's capital, technology, market and industrial chain, it is difficult for India's economy to develop sustainably and healthily.
Modi promoted "Made in India" and vowed to make India a developed country
Looking at India's various manifestations of provoking incidents on the border in recent years, the fundamental reason is that it is not the demand for territorial sovereignty, but the demand for the rise of a great power. As China's economic power and international influence continue to rise, India sees China as its number one strategic competitor. Border conflicts can contain and drain China's resources, forcing China to focus more on border defense to a certain extent, so that it cannot concentrate on economic development and safeguarding its neighboring interests.
In addition, the Modi government has faced more and more domestic contradictions since coming to power, such as religious conflicts and caste antagonism. Being tough on China can help divert domestic attention, allow ordinary people to vent their grievances on China, and bolster their support base for nationalists. Moreover, as India accelerates its move toward United States and is regarded by the US as an important fulcrum of its Indo-Pacific strategy, the strategy of catering to United States containing China has also become an important incentive for India to provoke on the border. United States has been encouraging India to show strength against China on the border in a bid to disrupt China's strategic deployment, and India has taken the opportunity to win military and diplomatic support from the United States. In addition, it has to be mentioned that India has used border conflicts to cover up its own lack of strength. Although India's economic and military strength has improved in recent years, there is still a considerable gap compared to China. Stirring up trouble on the border can create the illusion of a "limited victory" and satisfy its dream of a great power and national pride.
The scene of the previous Sino-Indian border conflict
However, with the passage of time, especially in the context of the acceleration of the changes in the past century, India's reasons for unilaterally provoking border conflicts are quietly changing. First, the balance of power between China and India has further widened, and the border conflict can no longer shake China's strategic determination and actions, but will further expose the limits of India's strength. Second, under the heavy blow of the new crown epidemic, the contradictions between India's economy and people's livelihood have intensified, and maintaining a peaceful and stable external environment has become more and more urgent. At the same time, with the subtle changes in the geopolitical situation, neighboring countries generally hope that China and India will strengthen cooperation and jointly safeguard regional security, which also invisibly restricts India to maximize its interests by confronting China. Moreover, the Western camp led by United States is not in a difficult situation for China alone, and India, as an emerging power, is also facing the risk of being encircled and suppressed by the United States. Blindly showing strength to China not only cannot fundamentally satisfy India's strategic interests, but may lose diplomatic autonomy and become a pawn of the United States and the West.
India's manufacturing sector is still dependent on a large number of equipment and raw materials from China
It is precisely based on practical interests that the India business community has put pressure on the government to relax restrictions on Chinese investment, allow more Chinese companies to invest in India, and simplify visa procedures for Chinese technicians. They argue that if India is to become a developed country by 2047, it must use China's capital and industrial capacity to develop its own industries.
At the same time, changes in the international situation have also prompted India to adjust its stance on China. In recent years, although India has taken a tough stance on China on border issues, India has become increasingly isolated in regional and international affairs. In contrast, both United States President Joe Biden and Australia Prime Minister Anthony Albanese have eased tensions with China. In the long run, India will not be able to support itself, and strategic gains may not be able to compensate for economic losses.
In the international arena, India needs to balance its relations with United States and other Western powers, and also stabilize the overall situation of cooperation with developing countries represented by China. As important members of emerging multilateral mechanisms such as BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the G20, China and India will greatly enhance their international status and voice if they can strengthen coordination, promote the improvement of the global governance system, and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results.