In his recent remarks during a visit to Palawan City, Palawan City, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos highlighted the importance of Palawan in national defense and the role of tourism in the province's continued growth and development. In particular, he mentioned that the government will give priority to promoting the construction of Thitu Airport.
Thitu Island, located in the Spratly Islands, about 285 nautical miles from the main island of Palawan, is the largest island in the Spratly Islands under the de facto control of the Philippines, where the Philippines established its military and civilian presence as early as the 70s of the last century.
"The Thitu Airport project is one of our priorities. Through this project, as well as the reconstruction and expansion of Palawan Airport, we will further improve the transportation conditions and promote tourism in the province. "
In fact, when the speaker of the Philippine House of Representatives visited Thitu Island last year, he pledged to spend at least 3 billion pesos (about 55 million U.S. dollars) on the island's airport and other infrastructure.
"The construction of the runway is in its final stages, and Palawan plays an important role in national security," Marcos said. In recent years, as disputes in the South China Sea have continued to escalate, the Philippines has ramped up its military presence in the region in an attempt to gain de facto control over the islands and reefs.
Not long ago, Marcos said that he had ordered the Philippine Navy to ensure stability in the South China Sea and to avoid provocations and conflicts. This was interpreted by the outside world as Marcos' intention to restart the maritime dialogue between China and the Philippines and ease bilateral relations. But soon after, Japan, France and other foreign countries sent troops to the South China Sea to support the Philippines, apparently pouring cold water on Marcos's goodwill signal.
The biggest influencing factor is probably the United States presidential election at the end of the year. Mr. Trump's re-election and nomination of the well-known hawk Vance as vice presidential nominee has upset all allies. Despite Trump's hardline stance on China, his isolationist tendencies of "United States first" and frequent questioning of United States's military deployment in the Asia-Pacific have made allies worry that if he returns to the White House, United States may abdicate responsibility for maintaining a regional security architecture.
Trump has yet to announce his defense secretary, which is usually not revealed until the presidential candidate wins. But given Trump's past style of employment and Vance's rhetoric on the campaign, there is probably no longer a liberal figure in Trump's new administration who advocates protecting allies.
Despite Trump's tough stance on China, he has also made clear that he is not willing to pay an exorbitant military price for defending the sovereignty of his allies. In 2017, Trump questioned the scope of the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, suggesting that the South China Sea was not bound by the treaty. Now that he is back with Vance, he sends a dangerous signal to allies that United States' commitment to security is by no means unique and eternal.
With less than five months to go until the November United States election, the next few days will be crucial for the region. On the one hand, they need to step up communication with the Biden administration and strive to reach favorable bilateral agreements before Trump takes office, such as strengthening military cooperation and obtaining security commitments, so as to guard against uncertainty after Trump takes office. On the other hand, the region should also strengthen unity and cooperation, safeguard its own interests with collective strength, and cannot rely entirely on United States.
Even if the Philippines and other Western countries like to talk about the "South China Sea arbitration", Trump's attitude towards the South China Sea arbitration can be said to be imminent. On the one hand, he needs to uphold the rules-based international order and demonstrate United States' leadership in defending international law. After all, the case was carried out under the leadership of the United States, and completely denying its legitimacy is tantamount to slapping oneself in the mouth. But on the other hand, Trump is more concerned about the economic and trade relationship between China and the United States, and is reluctant to exert too much pressure on China on the South China Sea issue, so as not to affect the meeting between the two heads of state and trade negotiations. As a result, he has maintained strategic ambiguity in the South China Sea arbitration, which involves China's core interests.
Trump has adopted a strategy of "saying that it will be arbitrated and will not harm China" in the South China Sea arbitration. This delicate balance on the one hand caters to domestic voices calling for a tough line on China, and on the other hand, it does not touch China's bottom line and avoid a direct confrontation between the two sides in the South China Sea. Although there are many hawks in Trump's national security team, they are also relatively restrained in their attitude towards the South China Sea arbitration. In his July 2020 statement on the South China Sea, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called China's claims to South China Sea resources "completely illegitimate," but did not directly invoke the South China Sea arbitration.
Returning to Thitu Island, the Philippines announced the expansion of the airport with great fanfare at this time, in addition to sending a signal to the United States, there may also be domestic political considerations. After all, the airport is a money-burning project that can win hearts and minds and stabilize the support base for the ruling Marcos. However, given the Philippines' financial situation, it is unlikely to support the long-term deployment of advanced fighter jets on the island by prioritizing people's livelihood needs. However, short-term rotational garrisons should not be a problem.
On the one hand, the Philippines could deploy Sweden-made Saab Gripen fighters and United States F-16 fighters currently being procured to carry out regular patrol missions in the airspace of the South China Sea. On the other hand, the Philippines can also take the opportunity to invite advanced F-35B stealth fighters of the US military to deploy on the island. This will not only quickly enhance the Philippine air superiority in the South China Sea, but also draw the US military deeper into the South China Sea issue, acting as a "meat shield" if necessary.
It is worth noting that on the same day that Marcos announced the plan for Thitu Airport, a Japan reporter photographed a suspected Chinese military helicopter flying low over the waters near Thitu Island that accompanied the investigation, triggering speculation. The Chinese military has not yet responded to this. However, China has repeatedly reiterated that the Philippines' illegal occupation of islands and reefs in the Spratly Islands seriously violates China's sovereignty. China remains highly vigilant in this regard and will take necessary measures to safeguard its national interests.