While the soldiers of the Russian and Ukrainian armies are fighting repeatedly on the line of contact, the Russian Iskander ballistic missiles and the Ukrainian Patriot air defense system are also engaged in a high-intensity confrontation.
On July 19, the Ukrainian air defense system deployed in the Odessa region of Ukraine successfully intercepted an Iskander ballistic missile of the Russian army in a very rare way, which was described as a milestone victory by a Ukrainian army spokesman.
But in less than 24 hours, more Iskander ballistic missiles struck, successfully destroying two Patriot missile launchers and radars of the Ukrainian army. In this contest between the two ace weapons of Russia and Ukraine, the Russian army temporarily has the upper hand.
In addition, United States and Japan enterprises could not produce more Patriot anti-aircraft missiles due to the difficulty of Boeing in providing a sufficient number of seekers. For Ukraine, this will create two problems: first, the number of anti-aircraft missiles that the West can provide to the Ukrainian army is limited; Second, its price may continue to rise, and it is economically unsustainable for the Ukrainian army to use the Patriot air defense missile system to intercept the Russian army's Iskander ballistic missiles.
The Ukrainian army shot down the Iskander ballistic missile and achieved a "milestone" victory
According to the Independent News Agency of Ukraine, on July 19, Ukrainian air defense systems deployed in the Odessa region successfully intercepted an Iskander ballistic missile. Prior to this, the Russian army had repeatedly used this type of missile to attack ports and other infrastructure in the Odessa region, causing huge losses to Ukraine.
Subsequently, Ukraine Navy spokesman Dmytro ·Plettenchuk described it as a milestone on his social media.
Why would he say that?
Because of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict for more than two years, the Iskander ballistic launched by the Russian army has been successfully intercepted very few times.
At present, there are three main types of conventional ballistic missiles in the Russian army's weapons inventory: the Iskander series, the Dagger hypersonic missile and the Zircon hypersonic missile. Among them, the Zircon hypersonic missile is still under development, and the number that can be put into combat is very small, and it is difficult to have an impact on the battlefield situation. At present, the Russian army mainly uses Iskander ballistic missiles in rapid strikes on important targets of the Ukrainian army, within 500 kilometers, and for the Ussi region at a distance of more than 1,000 kilometers, the Russian army mainly uses Dagger hypersonic missiles.
According to the data released by the Ukraine Air Force at the beginning of 2024, the success rate of the Ukrainian air defense system against the Iskander ballistic missile is about 20%, and the success rate of the Dagger hypersonic missile is more than an astonishing 40%.
The data published by the Ukraine Air Force, like other data published by them, is extremely watery. If the Ukrainian air defense system has a success rate of intercepting Iskander ballistic missiles by more than 20%, then what kind of "milestone" event is the shooting down of an Iskander ballistic missile by the Ukrainian army in the Odessa region?
But one thing that may be close to the truth in the interception data released by the Ukrainian army is that the Iskander ballistic missile is more difficult to intercept than the Dagger hypersonic missile.
The reason is simple, the Dagger hypersonic missile is an air-launched missile, and to achieve hypersonic flight, it needs its carrier aircraft MiG-31 to provide a high muzzle velocity. Therefore, when the Ukrainian radar discovers that the Russian MiG-31 fighter has taken off, it can immediately be on alert, and once it is found that the Dagger hypersonic missile has been launched, it can immediately guide the anti-aircraft missile to intercept it.
In addition, the Dagger hypersonic missile mainly strikes targets thousands of kilometers away, so it has a flight time of several minutes longer than the Iskander ballistic missile, which provides more ample time for the Ukrainian air defense system to respond.
The flight time of the Iskander ballistic missile does not exceed 5 minutes, leaving too little time for the Ukrainian air defense system to react, so it is more difficult for the Ukrainian army to intercept this missile.
Since entering 2024, the Russian army has launched at least 200 Iskander ballistic missiles, and from the news released by the Ukraine Air Force, except for an Iskander ballistic missile shot down on July 19, there is no more record of this type of missile being successfully intercepted.
The Russian army destroyed two Patriot anti-aircraft missile launchers of the Ukrainian army
On July 20, the Russia Ministry of Defense issued a war report saying that in the past 24 hours, the Russian missile forces destroyed two Patriot anti-aircraft missile launchers and one of the Ukrainian army's AN/MPQ-65 radar stations.
This means that the Russian army has taken out a relatively complete firepower unit of the Ukrainian Patriot air defense system.
Since entering 2024, the Russia Aerospace Forces have used a large number of gliding guided bombs to attack the frontline positions of the Ukrainian army to provide fire support for the Russian ground forces.
In order to contain the offensive of the Russian army, the command of the Ukrainian army has successively deployed valuable Patriot air defense missile systems to areas closer to the front line, such as the Red Army Village and Kharkov, in order to suppress the carriers of the Russian army's gliding guided bombs.
However, under the focus of the Russian army's reconnaissance and strike system composed of drones and Iskander ballistic missiles, these Patriot air defense missile systems were quickly destroyed by the Russian army.
According to the war report released by the Russia Ministry of Defense at the end of April, from January to April this year, the Russian army destroyed more than 40 various anti-aircraft missile installations and more than 20 anti-aircraft fire control radars of the Ukrainian army, basically removing the threat of the Ukrainian air defense system to the front-line combat aircraft of the Russian army.
Since the beginning of this year, although the number of bombing of the front-line positions of the Ukrainian army by Russian fighters using gliding guided bombs has increased significantly, the combat damage of its fighters has declined, and the Russian reconnaissance and strike system has played a great role in suppressing the Ukrainian air defense system.
Boeing's seeker production capacity is insufficient, and the increase in production of Patriot anti-aircraft missiles in the United States and Japan has been blocked
With the massive consumption of Patriot air defense missiles on the battlefield in Ukraine, whether it can quickly produce and supply a large number of Patriot air defense missiles to the Ukrainian army has become the key to whether the Ukrainian Patriot air defense missile system can win in the fierce confrontation with the Russian Iskander ballistic missiles.
In order to quickly obtain a large number of Patriot anti-aircraft missiles, the United States government asked Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to double its current annual production capacity of 30 Patriot anti-aircraft missiles. But the source said that Mitsubishi Heavy Industries' plan to double the production capacity of Patriot anti-aircraft missiles could take several years to materialize due to a series of problems.
The United States government plans to increase the global production capacity of Patriot anti-aircraft missiles from the current level of about 500 to 750 per year as soon as possible.
At this critical juncture, the scum of the United States military-industrial complex, Boeing, which has been plagued by scandals in recent years, said that it is difficult to quickly increase the production of Patriot anti-aircraft missile seekers at the moment.
Boeing claims that it plans to increase the current seeker production capacity by another 30% to meet the needs of related companies to increase production of Patriot anti-aircraft missiles, but the new production line will not be officially operational until 2027.
Due to the limitation of the number of seekers produced by Boeing, even by 2027, the number of Patriot anti-aircraft missiles in the world will hardly exceed 650.
If the production capacity of the Russian army's Iskander ballistic missiles is doubled, the Ukrainian Patriot air defense missile system will definitely lose in the confrontation with Iskander ballistic missiles.
In fact, the United States military-industrial complex is unable to increase the production of weapons, including Patriot anti-aircraft missiles, and also has its own small calculations.
Under the current supply and demand situation in the international arms market, United States Lockheed Martin's profit last year was as high as more than $20 billion.
If the United States military-industrial complex massively increases the production of Patriot anti-aircraft missiles, it is likely that in the case of a sharp increase in the price of raw materials, the price of weapons will not only not rise, but will fall sharply because of the rapid end of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. As a result, the profits of the United States military-industrial complex will inevitably drop sharply, and such a situation is something that United States military-industrial industry tries to avoid.
Therefore, the argument that Boeing cannot quickly increase the production of anti-aircraft missile seekers is likely just an excuse for the United States military-industrial complex to maximize profits, not that Boeing is not capable of doing so.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict is largely a war provoked by the United States military-industrial complex to expand the demand for weapons, and its purpose is to maximize its profits by creating an extreme imbalance between supply and demand in the international arms market to significantly increase the price of weapons.
The Ukraine government hopes that United States arms dealers will produce Patriot air defense missiles in large quantities to curb the imbalance between supply and demand in the international arms market, which is tantamount to asking the United States military-industrial complex to cut off its own financial route, which is simply a fantasy!
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