War, the heaviest topic in human history, always makes people shudder. However, in just half a century, Japan has repeatedly chosen the path of war. From the Sino-Japanese War to the Pacific War, Japan seemed to be caught in a vortex of war with no end in sight. What forces are driving Japan to this path of blood and fire? Is it nationalist fanaticism, or is it driven by economic interests? Or geopolitical pressures? Yoko Kato, professor of history at the University of Tokyo, takes us on an in-depth look at this complex and sensitive topic. With a unique perspective, she dissects the deep logic behind Japan's choice of war. In this article, we will follow Professor Kato's train of thought and revisit that turbulent history. However, the truth of history is often disturbing: can we find warning in it to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past? What does the original choice of the Japan have taught us today?
Causes of war: From the Sino-Japanese War to the Pacific War
On July 25, 1894, the Japan Navy sank the transport ship Takasho of the Chinese Beiyang Fleet in the Battle of Toshima. This event marked the official outbreak of the Sino-Japanese War. However, the seeds of war had been quietly planted decades earlier.
After the Meiji Restoration, Japan was anxious to shake off its backward image and aspire to become one of the world's great powers. In 1868, at the age of 16, Emperor Meiji ascended the throne and immediately issued the "Five Imperial Oaths," announcing the beginning of Japan's comprehensive modernization. Against this backdrop, Japan's foreign policy has changed dramatically.
In 1871, Japan sent an envoy led by Iwakura Gushi to visit Europe and the United States. This nearly two-year visit has made Japan's policymakers deeply aware of the strength of the Western powers and strengthened their determination to catch up with the West. When reporting to the emperor after returning to Japan, Iwakura said: "Europe and the United States are competing for Asia, and if the mainland does not strengthen itself, I am afraid that it will be difficult to escape the fate of being divided." This sense of crisis has become an important driving force for Japan to move towards the path of foreign expansion.
At the same time, Japan's domestic industrialization is also advancing rapidly. However, Japan lacks local resources to meet the needs of its rapidly growing industry. The Korean Peninsula and northeastern China are rich in mineral and agricultural resources, and Japan is the object of coveting. In 1876, Japan forced Korea to sign the Treaty of Ganghwa Island through the threat of force, opening the door to Korea. This was seen as the first step in Japan's external expansion.
In 1885, Japan Prime Minister Hirobumi Ito and Qing Minister Li Hongzhang signed the Treaty of Tianjin in Tianjin, in which they agreed to notify each other in advance when sending troops to Korea. However, this fragile balance was soon upset. In 1894, the Donghak uprising broke out in Korea. The Qing government sent troops to suppress it at the request of the Korean government, while Japan also sent troops to Korea on the grounds of protecting overseas Chinese in Korea. The contradictions between the two sides finally broke out, and the First Sino-Japanese War began.
Japan's victory in the Sino-Japanese War not only obtained huge reparations and new territories such as Taiwan and the Penghu Islands, but more importantly, this victory greatly stimulated Japan's national self-confidence and desire for external expansion. However, the intervention of the three countries in Liaoliao made Japan realize that it could not compete with the Western powers on its own. This frustration has instead become the driving force for Japan to further expand its armaments and war.
The subsequent Russo-Japanese War pushed Japan into the ranks of world powers. In 1905, Japan defeated Tsarist Russia in what has been described as the "first modern war of the 20th century", gaining special rights and interests in the Korean Peninsula and northeast China, and becoming the largest power in Asia. This victory further inflated Japan's militarist ideology and laid the groundwork for further expansion in the future.
During World War I, Japan entered the war as part of the Allied powers, taking the opportunity to expand its influence in China and the Pacific. However, the post-war Versailles-Washington system once again made Japan feel pressure from the Western powers. In particular, the Washington Naval Treaty of 1922 limited Japan's naval development, which was seen by the Japanese military as a threat to national security.
The Great Depression that broke out in 1929 further exacerbated Japan's tendency toward foreign expansion. In order to escape the economic crisis and gain access to more resources and markets, Japan began to look more at the Asian continent. The "September 18 Incident" in 1931 and the subsequent establishment of "Manchukuo" marked the full beginning of the militarist path in Japan.
From the Sino-Japanese War to the Pacific War, Japan launched many wars in just half a century. Behind this series of wars, there are not only geopolitical considerations, but also driven by economic interests, and more importantly, driven by militaristic ideas. In the face of changes in the international situation and domestic pressures, Japan's policymakers have again and again chosen the seemingly shortcut but dangerous path of war. This choice ultimately pushed Japan into the abyss of disaster.
The role of decision-makers: the interaction between the government, the military, and the civilian population
As Japan moved toward war, the interaction of the government, the military, and the civilian sector played a key role. This complex power relationship not only affects Japan's foreign policy, but also shapes the country's war decision-making mechanism.
First, let's focus on the role of the Japan government. After the Meiji Restoration, Japan gradually established a political system with the emperor as the core. However, actual political power is mainly in the hands of a small political elite, led by the senators. These elders, such as Hirobumi Ito and Aritomo Yamaguchi, played a decisive role in shaping Japan's foreign policy and strategic direction.
In 1889, Japan promulgated the Constitution of the Empire of Japan, establishing the supremacy of the emperor. The constitution gave the emperor the power to command the army and navy, but it also made the military directly accountable to the emperor. This regulation laid a hidden danger for the military to override the civilian government in the future.
In the early 20th century, the Japan government tried to achieve national interests through diplomatic means. For example, the Anglo-Japanese Alliance concluded with United Kingdom in 1902 was an important diplomatic achievement of the Japan government in the international arena. This alliance not only enhanced Japan's international status, but also provided favorable conditions for future war against Russia.
However, over time, the military ministry has played an increasing role in Japan's decision-making process. Especially in the Showa era, which began in the late 1920s, the influence of the military department reached its peak. After the 226 Incident in 1936, the military department effectively controlled the decision-making power of the government.
A key factor in the rise in the influence of the military is the concept of "independence of the command". According to this concept, the army has the right to report directly to the emperor, bypassing the cabinet. This allowed the military to act largely independently of the civilian government. For example, the "September 18 Incident" of 1931 was launched by the Kwantung Army without authorization, and it was only reported to the Tokyo government afterwards.
The military department's expansionist ambitions directly influenced Japan's foreign policy. The army promoted aggression against Chinese mainland, while the navy advocated expansion to the south. This divergence ultimately led to a situation in which Japan faced two powerful adversaries, China and United States, at the same time.
Public opinion also plays an important role in this process. Media such as newspapers and radio in Japan played a key role in shaping public attitudes toward the war. For example, during the Russo-Japanese War, newspapers such as the Yomiuri Shimbun vigorously promoted patriotism and aroused popular enthusiasm for the war.
On the other hand, with the democratization process in Japan, the voice of the private sector has begun to influence the government's decision-making. The Taisho coup d'état of 1912 is a case in point. At the time, popular opposition to Katsura Taro's formation of a government and mass demonstrations forced him to step down was seen as a milestone in Japan's parliamentary politics.
However, with the rise of militaristic ideology, anti-war voices were gradually suppressed. In 1933, Yukitsu Takikawa, a professor at Kyoto Imperial University, was forced to resign because of his liberal ideas, an event that marked the loss of freedom of expression in academia.
In this atmosphere, a number of civil society organizations began to actively support the war. For example, in 1940, the Taizheng Wing Zan Association was established to unite social groups across the country to serve the war mobilization. This state of general mobilization made it almost impossible to oppose the war.
It is worth noting that even in such an environment, there are still a few people who adhere to an anti-war stance. For example, the socialist Kanju Kato was arrested in 1940 for opposing the war and was not released until after the war. These voices, though weak, also show that Japan society is not entirely one-sided in favor of the war.
The interaction of the government, the military, and the civilian sector eventually pushed Japan onto the path of all-out war. The weakness of the government, the arbitrariness of the military department, and the manipulated public opinion all together constituted the internal motivation for Japan to move towards war. This imbalance in the power structure not only led to wrong strategic decisions, but also made it difficult for Japan to stop losses in time after the outbreak of war, and eventually fell into an irreparable situation.
Social climate: the evolution from nationalism to militarism
Japan society has undergone a long and complex evolution from the nationalist boom after the Meiji Restoration to the extreme militarism on the eve of World War II. This change in social atmosphere not only reflects Japan's domestic political, economic, and cultural changes, but also profoundly affects Japan's foreign policy and war decisions.
In the early years of the Meiji Restoration, Japan society was permeated with a strong sense of national pride and a passion for modernization. In 1868, the young Meiji Emperor issued the famous "Gojo Imperial Oath" at the Kyoto Imperial Palace, declaring that "knowledge should be sought from all over the world and the imperial foundation should be greatly revitalized." This declaration has aroused the enthusiasm of the Japan people to learn from and catch up with the West.
In 1871, a delegation led by Iwakura Gushi embarked on a nearly two-year expedition to Europe and the United States. The visit, known as the "Iwakura Mission," not only allowed Japan's policymakers to see firsthand the level of development of Western countries, but also made them deeply aware of the gap between Japan and the West. The book "Western Affairs" written by Yukichi Fukuzawa, a member of the diplomatic corps, after returning to Japan, became an important window for Japan society to understand the West at that time, and further stimulated the people's enthusiasm for modernization.
However, this enthusiasm for learning from the West soon evolved into a strong nationalist sentiment. In 1873, Saigo Takamori and others advocated the use of troops against Korea, and although this idea was ultimately rejected, it reflected the beginning of the idea of foreign expansion in Japan society. The Taiwan military dispatch in 1874 was a concrete manifestation of Japan's emerging nationalism.
In 1889, Japan promulgated the Constitution of the Empire of Japan, establishing the supremacy of the emperor. The promulgation of this constitution not only established Japan's political system, but also strengthened the sense of national identity of the Japanese people. In this atmosphere, "respecting the king and loving the country" has become the mainstream value of Japan society.
The outbreak of the Sino-Japanese War in 1894 was an important turning point in Japan's nationalist sentiment. Japan's victory in this war not only received huge reparations and new territories, but more importantly, greatly boosted the self-confidence of its citizens. However, the subsequent intervention of the three countries in the Liao Restoration Incident aroused the discontent of the Japan people. This complex sentiment has become an important driving force for Japan to move further toward militarism.
Since the beginning of the 20th century, nationalist sentiment in Japan has further increased. The Russo-Japanese War that broke out in 1904, seen as a victory for the "yellow race" over the "white race", greatly stimulated Japan's national pride. After the war, Japan society was permeated with a strong sense of superiority and a desire for expansion.
However, the changes in the international situation after World War I have once again stimulated Japan's national sentiments. At the Paris Peace Conference in 1919, Japan's proposal for racial equality was rejected, which deeply humiliated the Japanese people. At the Washington Conference in 1921, Japan was forced to accept treaties restricting naval development, further exacerbating discontent in Japan society.
Against this background, some extreme nationalist groups began to emerge in Japan society. For example, the Black Dragon Society, founded in 1919, actively promoted Japan's foreign expansion under the banner of "Greater Asianism." Although these groups are small, they have a wide impact on society.
The Great Depression that broke out in 1929 had a huge impact on Japan society. Unemployment has soared, the rural economy has collapsed, and social contradictions have become increasingly acute. Under these circumstances, militarist ideas began to spread in Japan society. Many see foreign expansion as a solution to their domestic problems.
The "September 18 Incident" in 1931 marked Japan's all-round embarkation on the road of militarism. The subsequent establishment of "Manchukuo" was widely supported by Japan society. At that time, many Japanese saw "Manchuria" as a "lifeline" to solve the problem of domestic population and resources.
After entering the 1930s, Japan society became increasingly militaristic. Militaristic ideas began to be vigorously propagated in school education, the media was tightly controlled, and anti-war voices were suppressed. In 1937, the Japan government promulgated the National General Mobilization Law, which placed the entire society under the wartime system.
In this atmosphere, even ordinary people are drawn into the vortex of war. For example, the outbreak of the "100 beheading" incident in 1937 reflected the extreme militaristic sentiment that pervaded Japan society at that time. The brutality of two Japan officers who used sabers to kill Chinese civilians outside Nanjing was not only not condemned, but was hyped up by the domestic media as a manifestation of the "bushido spirit."
By the outbreak of the Pacific War in 1941, Japan society was completely dominated by militaristic ideology. Even in the face of a formidable opponent like United States, many Japanese people still believe that victory will be achieved in the end. To a large extent, this unrealistic optimism stems from a long history of militarist propaganda and education.
The evolution of Japan society from nationalism to militarism was a gradual and complex process. This evolution has both internal driving forces, such as the expansion of national self-confidence and the desire for external expansion; There are also stimuli from external factors, such as changes in the international situation and the impact of economic crises. In the end, this extreme social atmosphere became an important force that pushed Japan into the abyss of war.
External factors: the impact of the international environment and geopolitics
As Japan headed for war, the international environment and geopolitical factors played a crucial role. From the end of the 19th century to the middle of the 20th century, the world pattern underwent dramatic changes that profoundly affected Japan's foreign policy and strategic choices.
At the end of the 19th century, Japan had just completed the Meiji Restoration and was in the stage of rapid rise. The international environment at the time provided opportunities for Japan's expansion. The Sino-Japanese War that broke out in 1894 was Japan's first major attempt at foreign expansion. In this war, Japan defeated China and gained Taiwan and the Liaodong Peninsula. However, the subsequent intervention of the three countries in Liaoliao made Japan deeply feel that its national strength was insufficient and made it realize the complexity of international politics.
In 1902, Japan and United Kingdom concluded the Anglo-Japanese Alliance. The signing of this alliance marks the first time that Japan has been regarded as an equal partner by a Western power. This not only enhanced Japan's international status, but also provided favorable conditions for its subsequent external expansion. With the tacit consent of United Kingdom, Japan was able to launch a war against Russia in 1904.
The victory in the Russo-Japanese War greatly enhanced Japan's international standing. In 1905, United States President Theodore · Roosevelt presided over the Treaty of Portsmouth, which affirmed Japan's special interests on the Korean Peninsula and in northeastern China. This victory not only allowed Japan to gain substantial benefits, but more importantly, it shattered the myth that "the yellow race cannot defeat the white race" and greatly stimulated Japan's national self-confidence.
During World War I, Japan entered the war as part of the Allied powers, taking the opportunity to expand its influence in China and the Pacific. In 1915, Japan made "21 demands" to China in an attempt to turn China into its vassal. Although this attempt was ultimately not fully realized due to pressure from the international community, Japan still benefited from it.
However, the changes in the post-war international situation were extremely unfavorable to Japan. At the Paris Peace Conference in 1919, Japan's proposal for racial equality was rejected, which made Japan feel humiliated. The Washington Conference of 1921 directly limited Japan's naval development. These events have left Japan feeling marginalized by Western powers and deepened its antagonism with the international community.
The Great Depression that broke out in 1929 had a profound impact on Japan. The contraction of global trade and the adoption of protectionist policies in various countries have dealt a heavy blow to the export-dependent Japan economy. Against this backdrop, Japan began to look to the Asian continent, seeking to establish an economic circle dominated by it.
In 1931, Japan launched the "918 Incident" and began a full-scale invasion of northeast China. The League of Nations investigated and condemned the incident and failed to stop Japan's action. In 1933, Japan withdrew from the League of Nations, marking the beginning of Japan's path of confrontation with the international community.
In 1936, Japan and Germany signed the Japan-Germany Defense Pact, and Italy joined the following year, forming the Japan-Germany-Italy Axis Alliance. The formation of this alliance profoundly changed the international pattern at that time and also provided support for Japan's subsequent military operations.
In 1937, Japan launched a full-scale war of aggression against China. Despite the condemnation of the international community, due to the tense situation in Europe at that time, Western countries did not have time to pay attention to Far Eastern affairs, which objectively facilitated Japan's aggression.
In 1939, World War II broke out in Europe. Taking advantage of the fact that European powers are busy dealing with Germany, Japan has accelerated its expansion in Asia. In 1940, Japan took advantage of the defeat of France to force the France Vichy government to agree to the stationing of Japanese troops in India Shina. This action directly threatens United Kingdom's interests in Southeast Asia and also arouses United States' alarm.
In 1941, Japan decided to expand southward, attempting to occupy the oil resources of Dutch East India (present-day Indonesia). This decision directly led to the deterioration of relations between Japan and the United States. In July of the same year, United States froze Japan assets in the United States and imposed an oil embargo on Japan. Faced with this grim situation, Japan's decision-makers believe that they should either succumb to United States pressure or start a war. In the end, Japan chose the latter.
On December 7, 1941, Japan attacked Pearl Harbor and the Pacific War broke out. This operation, while a tactical success in the short term, in the long run it completely changed the nature and scale of the war. United States's entry into the war forced Japan to face an opponent whose industrial strength far surpassed that of itself.
Japan's march toward war was, to a large extent, the result of its response to a complex international environment. From initially trying to integrate into the Western-dominated international order to finally openly challenging it, Japan's foreign policy has undergone a dramatic transformation. This shift reflected both domestic political and social changes in Japan and the evolution of the international landscape at the time. In the end, Japan misjudged the international situation, overestimated its own strength, and underestimated the potential of its opponents, all of which became important reasons for Japan to move into the abyss of war.
Decision-making process: The Japan government's war decisions and internal divisions
The decision-making process for Japan to go to war was a complex and tortuous process. This process not only reflects the power structure and decision-making mechanism within the Japan government, but also reflects the game and compromise between the military department, the government, the imperial family and other forces.
In the early 1930s, the decision-making mechanism of the Japan government began to change. After the "September 18 Incident" in 1931, the influence of the military department gradually increased. After the 226 Incident in 1936, the War Department was given the power to appoint the Minister of War and the Minister of the Navy in the Cabinet, which enabled the War Department to overthrow an undesirable Cabinet by withdrawing the Minister.
On July 7, 1937, the Lugou Bridge Incident broke out. The handling of this incident fully reflects the complexity of the decision-making mechanism of the Japan government. The Konoe Fumiro Cabinet at the time was originally inclined to a peaceful settlement, but under pressure from the Ministry of War, it was finally decided to expand the military operation. On July 11, the Konoe Cabinet held an imperial meeting and decided to send three additional divisions to North China. This decision actually opened the prelude to a full-scale war of aggression against China.
In January 1938, Fumiro Konoe addressed the Diet and announced a policy of "not using the Nationalist Government as an adversary," marking Japan's abandonment of the possibility of negotiations with Chiang Kai-shek's government. Behind this decision was the strong demand of the military department for the continuation of the war and the compromise of the Konoe cabinet on the pressure of the military department.
In 1939, World War II broke out in Europe. In the face of this major change, serious divisions have emerged within the Japan government. The "northward marchers" represented by the army advocated an alliance with Germany and attacked the Soviet Union; The "southward faction" represented by the navy advocated expansion into Southeast Asia and occupied the oil resources of Dutch East India. This controversy lasted for quite some time and ended in the victory of the "southerners".
In July 1940, the Second Konoe Cabinet was formed. Fumiro Konoe put forward the idea of establishing a "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere," which actually provided a theoretical basis for Japan's external expansion. In September of the same year, Japan signed the Triple Alliance Treaty with Germany and Italy, a decision that further deepened Japan's international isolation.
In 1941, Japan's war decisions entered a critical stage. In April, Japan signed a neutrality pact with the Soviet Union, a decision that indicated that Japan had abandoned the option of "going north." In July, Japan occupied the southern part of French India Shina, an action that provoked a strong reaction from United States. The United States immediately froze Japan's assets in the United States and imposed an oil embargo on Japan.
In the face of United States economic sanctions, serious divisions have once again emerged within the Japan government. The faction represented by Foreign Minister Yoyo Matsuoka advocated a solution to the crisis through diplomatic negotiations; The hardliners, led by Hideki Tojo, the prime minister of the land, advocated resorting to force. In this controversy, Emperor Hirohito played a key role. On September 6, at the Imperial Council, the Emperor asked the participants to once again carefully consider the peace plan. This move led to the general resignation of the Konoe Cabinet.
On October 18, Hideki Tojo formed a new cabinet. After the establishment of the Tojo Cabinet, Japan's war decisions entered the final stage. At the Imperial Council on November 5, the Tojo Cabinet proposed a final plan for negotiations with the United States, and decided to go to war with the United States in early December if the negotiations failed. This decision has actually pushed Japan to the brink of war.
Over the next month, the Japanese government continued to negotiate diplomatically with the United States while secretly preparing for the attack on Pearl Harbor. On November 26, United States Secretary of State Hull presented Japan with an ultimatum to Japan withdraw troops from China and India Shina. The ultimatum was seen by Japan as the final veto of the negotiations.
On December 1, at the Imperial Council, the Tojo Cabinet formally decided to go to war against the United States, Britain and the Netherlands. On December 7, Japan attacked Pearl Harbor and the Pacific War broke out. This decision marks Japan's final choice of a path of no return.
Japan's decision-making process towards war reflects many problems in the decision-making mechanism of the Japan government. First, the military ministry has too much influence in the decision-making process, which leads to a militarized tendency in decision-making. Second, although the emperor formally has the highest decision-making power, in practice he is often in a passive position, and it is difficult to effectively check and balance the influence of the military department. Third, the contradictions and struggles between various factions within the government have also affected the coherence and rationality of policy decisions. Finally, Japan's decision-makers' misjudgment of the international situation and their overconfidence in their own strength have become important reasons for Japan to go to war.