On June 26, a meeting of special envoys of NATO member states confirmed that Netherlands Prime Minister Mark · Rutte will succeed Stoltenberg as the next NATO Secretary-General for a five-year term. At this point, the battle for the choice of NATO secretary general, which has lasted for nearly a year, has finally come to an end.
Netherlands Prime Minister Rutte (right) talks with outgoing NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in The Hague on June 26, 2024.
Evergreen in European politics
As of this year, Rutte has been the prime minister of Netherlands for nearly 14 years. Over the past 14 years, due to the fragmentation of Netherlands politics and the rise of political instability, the ruling coalition has often gathered and dispersed, and Rutte himself has resigned several times. But he has been able to turn the tide every time and return to the prime minister's office, and he can be called one of the "longest-flowering" prime ministers in Europe.
Rutte served as president of the Liberal Democratic Youth Organization during his college years. After graduating with a master's degree, he entered the business world with one foot in human resources management at Unilever, a joint venture between the UK and the Netherlands, and politics as a member of the National Committee of the Netherlands Liberal Democratic People's Party (FDP). In July of the same year, Balkenend was inaugurated as Prime Minister of Netherlands, and Rutte served as Secretary of State for Social Affairs and Employment in the center-right coalition government led by the Christian Democratic Union, and as State Secretary for UNESCO in the second Balkenend government.
In June 2006, Rutte resigned from government and soon became the leader of the LDP in the House of Representatives, where he has since risen to the core of the party's leadership. In the 2010 Netherlands parliamentary elections, the FDP won 31 seats, making it the largest party in the House of Representatives for the first time. However, Queen Beatrix has authorized several political party leaders to form a government, but all of them have failed. On 14 October, the Queen formally invited Rutte to form a government, and he formed a coalition government of the Liberal Democratic Party (FDP) and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) by a narrow majority of votes, with external support from the Liberal Party led by Wilders. The 44-year-old Rutte became the second-youngest prime minister in Netherlands history and remains in power ever since. In July last year, Rutte announced his resignation as political leader of the FDP due to "irreconcilable contradictions within the ruling coalition" and said that he would withdraw from Netherlands politics after the new government took office.
When Rutte was prime minister of the Netherlands, his attitude toward China was relatively rational and pragmatic. During his visit to China in March, Rutte stressed that "decoupling and breaking the chain" is not a policy option for the Netherlands government, and said that any action that harms China's development interests will hurt itself. Netherlands values its partnership with China and hopes to promote people-to-people exchanges, economic and trade cooperation and synergy in international affairs. He also said that NATO's relationship with Asia is crucial to maintaining stability in the world, and that he will work to improve this relationship if he becomes the new NATO secretary general.
"Trump's Whisperer"
Spending a long career as prime minister in Netherlands, a notoriously politically unstable country, was more important than a special preference for career stability, as well as excellent communication and the ability to bridge differences. United States media have ridiculed that the selection of NATO secretary general should meet two criteria: first, the 31 member states unanimously agreed; Second, the United States agreed. It is also thanks to the long-term experience in Netherlands that Rutte has played the role of a stable anchor in Europe-US relations to a certain extent during both Trump and Biden's tenure in the White House, making him not only won the title of "Trump Whisperer", but also took the lead in gaining United States recognition in the process of competing for the post of NATO Secretary-General with European Commission President von der Leyen, Estonia Prime Minister Karas, former Latvian Foreign Minister Kalinsh, Romania President Iohannis and many other dignitaries.
According to Koster, a former NATO defense policy chief, Trump had strongly condemned NATO's European members for military arrears during his tenure and threatened that United States would "go its own way," but in the end it was Rutte who saved the day. Not only did he subtly assure Trump that there would be a significant increase in military spending in Europe, but he also affirmed the legitimacy of his demands, which led Trump to end the meeting with a cheerful statement to the media that he had "had a very good two days" and had "made great progress."
As the 2024 United States election gradually reaches its climax, Europe's "Trump anxiety" is becoming more and more intense, and Rutte has also become the best choice for NATO secretary general in the hearts of Europeans. Elias, a former member of the Netherlands Liberal Democratic Party, commented on Rutte's "unique influence" on Trump: In Netherlands, Trump is regarded as a "devil", but Rutte can maintain a normal relationship with him. Grande, a former NATO assistant secretary general and a researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, also said that Rutte has experienced the ups and downs of "Trump 1.0" and is fully capable of dealing with the complex situation of "Trump 2.0". In the short period after Rutte's definitive candidacy for NATO secretary-general, two-thirds of NATO members expressed their support. On June 18, with Hungary and Slovakia finally agreeing to Rutte's appointment, the Romanian president announced that he was withdrawing from the race, and Rutte succeeded Stoltenberg at the helm of NATO.
The "Three Mountains" in front of the new Secretary-General
Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, the second-longest tenure in NATO history, will step down in October this year, and Rutte, who succeeds him, will face a severe test brought about by the complex security situation.
First, the confrontation between Europe and Russia is becoming more and more solidified. Unlike Europe's recent rise to the far right and "Gen Z" politicians, Rutte, with his extensive governing experience and pragmatic, sophisticated style, is considered able to remain calm in the face of Russia without being "humble or arrogant." Rutte had more contact with Putin during his tenure as prime minister of the Netherlands, which helped NATO to reduce the likelihood of a full-scale conflict with Russia to some extent. However, the current Ukraine crisis has entered its third year, and the economic, energy and even diplomatic ties between Europe and Russia are declining day by day, the room for maneuver in bilateral relations has been significantly reduced, and the confrontation situation is becoming more and more solidified. NATO and Russia have identified each other as the "number one security threat" and interpreted most of each other's military, political, and diplomatic actions as damage to their own national interests. Therefore, after Rutte took charge of NATO, there is not much room for policy maneuver in handling relations with Russia, and it is likely that it can only continue the current strategy of the United States supporting Ukraine and suppressing Russia.
Second, Europe's defense capability is still weak. During a visit to the United States in June, Stoltenberg announced that 23 NATO countries were expected to spend at or exceed 2 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) this year. This is indeed a landmark event, however, given that there are too many historical military debts in Europe, a virtuous cycle of military industry has not yet been created, and weapons interoperability is poor, it will still take a lot of money and a long time to reverse Europe's image as a "security worm". During this year's Munich Security Conference, Rutte said in an interview with Eurodynamics that "European leaders should stop complaining about Trump" and that "Europe should focus on its own defense, not who sits in the White House."
However, it is slightly ironic that Netherlands have always been "thrifty" in Europe, and oppose the current high-profile proposal of "issuing common defense bonds" in Europe. At the same time, Netherlands under Rutte has never met the "NATO standard" of 2% of GDP for defense spending. In this regard, Poland Prime Minister Donald Tusk recently publicly criticized Rutte, saying: "The NATO secretary general should mobilize everyone to spend more money on defense, not more frugally." ”
Third, United States' concern for the "Indo-Pacific" region may drag Europe into a "crisis that does not belong to itself." At present, it has become a bipartisan consensus of United States to be tough on China, and United States is shifting more and more resources and energy from Europe to the "Indo-Pacific" to serve its strategic competition with China, and there are even signs of bundling European security with "Indo-Pacific" security and maintaining a security presence in Europe as a bargaining chip in exchange for NATO's advance into the "Indo-Pacific". As a result, Europe is not only facing an increasingly severe security situation at its doorstep, but is more likely to be dragged into a "crisis that does not belong to itself". Rutte, as a "whisperer in Trump's ear" and has the active support of the Biden administration, is a very important factor for European and global security as to whether he can withstand pressure and implement a relatively independent and rational security concept and China policy after taking charge of NATO.
The author is director of the European Security Program at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations
This article was published in the 14th issue of "World Knowledge" in 2024
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