After the attack on the Golan Heights, Israel vowed to retaliate, and the international community feared all-out war

According to Xinhua News Agency, the Israel Security Cabinet meeting issued a statement on the evening of the 28th, saying that cabinet ministers have authorized Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gallant to "decide the way and time to take countermeasures against Allah."

Israeli soldiers work near the site of a rocket attack in the Israel-occupied Golan Heights town of Majdirshams on 27 July. Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Ayar · Margolin/Gini Images)

According to Xinhua News Agency, citing the Israel military and emergency organizations, the Lebanon Allah Party launched a rocket attack on the Golan Heights on the night of the 27th, resulting in at least 12 deaths and more than 30 injuries in the Golan Heights town of Maijidershams, most of whom were teenagers and children. Lebanon Allah party has denied carrying out the attack. On the morning of the 29th, Israel drones launched six air strikes on five towns and villages in the southern border area of Lebanon, and the Israeli army also fired 35 artillery shells at nine towns and villages in the area.

Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on the 28th that the rocket that caused the attack on the Golan Heights was a Iran-made missile launched from an area north of the village of Chebaa in southern Lebanon, and the Lebanon Allah Party was the only "terrorist organization" that possessed such rockets. According to the United Kingdom Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), a Lebanon Allah party spokesman said the Allah party fired rockets at the Israel military base in the Golan Heights, but said it had "absolutely nothing to do with the attack in Majdal Shams".

The Financial Times reported that Gallant said on the 28th that the Lebanon Allah Party, as a Iran agent, was behind the attack and would pay a "heavy price" for the attack. Local media reported that leaders of various political factions in Israel had issued similar retaliatory statements.

In this regard, Niu Song, a researcher at the Institute of Middle East Studies at Shanghai Outer Chinese University, told The Paper (www.thepaper.cn) that "Israel government and people are on high alert for any attack on their territory and areas under their actual control." Against the backdrop of a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflicts, this incident has touched the tense 'nerves' of Israel society even more. Israel naturally points the finger at Lebanon) Allah, whether or not Hezbollah acknowledges that the incident is related to it. ”

The Israeli government needs to "give an account" internally, and Lebanese Foreign Minister called for an international investigation

Reports indicate that the rocket attack on the Golan Heights is the deadliest attack on Israel and the areas under its de facto control since the new escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

According to the Xinhua News Agency, since the outbreak of a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict on October 7 last year, the Lebanon Allah Party has launched attacks in northern Israel from time to time, and the Israeli army retaliated by air strikes and artillery shelling of targets in southern Lebanon.

An Al Jazeera survey in April found that Israel had carried out five more attacks on Lebanon than by Allah. During this period, Israel killed some 300 members of Allah and more than 70 civilians, while Israel said it lost about 15 soldiers and 10 civilians.

In early July, a senior Lebanon commander was killed in an Israel airstrike, and 18 Israel soldiers were injured in a drone strike by Allah. Clashes on the Israeli-Lebanese border have forced more than 90,000 people from their homes in Lebanon, and about 100 civilians and 366 Allah fighters have been killed in Israel attacks, including health workers, children and journalists, according to a United Nations report.

At one point, the Israel Ministry of Defense claimed that in response to the tense situation on the Israeli-Lebanese border, Israel had approved a plan to launch a military operation in Lebanon.

In view of the ongoing clashes between the Lebanon Allah Party and the Israel, Niu Song believes that "the Security Cabinet needs to give timely 'explanations' to the Israel community about the major attacks on the Golan Heights, and at the same time use this opportunity to form a new political and military deterrent to the Allah Party, so as to try to maintain security in the northern border area." ”

The Financial Times reported that Lebanon Allah party insiders revealed that the Allah party is currently on high alert in case Israel attack. At the same time, Lebanon's diplomats and government officials are trying to prevent the outbreak of all-out war.

In the aftermath of the attack on the Golan Heights, no group has yet officially claimed responsibility for the attack, Israel United States have claimed that the attack was carried out by Lebanon Allah party forces, while Allah party forces have denied any involvement in the attack. Syria state news agency reported on the 28th that the missiles that fell on the Golan Heights were usually anti-aircraft missiles launched by Israel, and in this incident, some local witnesses said that they saw missiles falling on Israel's "Iron Dome" air defense system.

Xinhua News Agency quoted Lebanon state news agency as reporting that Lebanese Foreign Minister Habib called for an international investigation into the Golan Heights attack on the 28th. He stated that Lebanon opposed attacks targeting civilians anywhere in the world, whether in the Gaza Strip, Lebanon or Israel. He warned that a large-scale attack on Lebanon Israel could lead to "the outbreak of a regional war."

The Lebanon Prime Minister's Office issued a statement on the 28th, saying that the Lebanese government condemns all forms of violence against civilians and that achieving a sustainable ceasefire on all fronts is the only possible solution to prevent further casualties and avoid further deterioration of the situation on the ground. However, the statement did not explicitly mention whether Allah was involved in the attack.

Israel's cabinet is divided

A recent analysis in the Israel Haaretz newspaper pointed out that members of the Israel government and some partisans are deliberately stirring up the situation on the Lebanon border. Harrison Mann, a major in the United States Defense Intelligence Agency and a former ·United States military intelligence analyst, said in an interview with the United Kingdom Guardian newspaper that Israel dared to risk war against the Allah Party to ensure that Netanyahu's political power was solid.

After the Golan Heights attack, Netanyahu and Gallant met with senior security cabinet members on the evening of the 28th to discuss Israel's response. According to The Israel Times, the prime minister's office said that during the four-hour meeting, lawmakers voted to authorize Netanyahu and Gallant to decide on the scale and timing of Israel's response to the deadly rocket attack on the Golan Heights.

However, according to Israel's newspaper Izvestia, Finance Minister Smotlih and National Security Minister Ben-Gvir both abstained from voting, both of whom are hardliners who advocate greater reprisals and have repeatedly expressed the idea of occupying southern Lebanon.

In this regard, Wang Jin, director of the Center for Israel Studies at Northwest University, told The Paper that the town attacked in the Golan Heights was mainly inhabited by Druze, not Jews. "The Druze people of the Golan Heights tend to be politically different from the Druze people in Israel itself. Israel's native Druze are generally more inclined to Israel's political identity. The Druze people in the Golan Heights, especially middle-aged and elderly, are more inclined to Syria's political identity. ”

Information shows that the Golan Heights is the land that Israel seized from Syria in the third Middle East war in 1967, but Israel's military action to annex the Golan Heights has not been recognized by most countries.

"So after the attack, Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, whether they advocated revenge or not, were actually embarrassed." Wang Jin said.

In addition, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, as far-right representatives in Israel's cabinet, have many differences with Netanyahu. United States President Joe Biden said on May 31 that the Israel government had put forward a new proposal to provide a roadmap for a permanent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and to ensure the release of detainees. The next day, however, Smoterich and Ben-Gvir threatened to overthrow the government if Netanyahu implemented the ceasefire proposal.

"The abstention of the two men shows their support for the attack on Allah, and on the other hand, it also reflects the wariness of the Netanyahu government, which does not want to see Netanyahu gain more power on the issue of war and peace in the context of the current Palestinian-Israeli conflict." Niu Song analyzed.

Earlier, Netanyahu dissolved his wartime cabinet on June 17, and media analysis believes that one of the purposes of the move is to deny far-right politicians to join. According to the United Kingdom newspaper The Guardian, this means the end of Israel's coalition government, and Netanyahu will have greater control over the war in Gaza. United States (CNN) argues that by dissolving the wartime cabinet, Netanyahu avoided having to accept Ben-Gvir into the wartime cabinet. If he is allowed to join, it could further escalate tensions between Israel and United States, and if he refuses his demands, it could anger the far right forces in Israel.

When the wartime Cabinet was dissolved, some of the issues previously discussed by the wartime Cabinet would be transferred to the broader Security Cabinet, which would include a dozen government ministers, including Ben-Gvir and Smotrich. However, members of the Security Cabinet are not in agreement with the Lebanon Allah Party. Wang Jin believes that the current Israel lack the preparation and ability to carry out a large-scale counterattack against the Lebanon Allah Party, so "right-wing political forces are more concerned about the situation in the West Bank of the Jordan River and the Gaza Strip."

Avoid all-out war

On the 28th, the Lebanon foreign minister said in an interview with the Lebanon regional broadcaster al-Hadath that Lebanon asked Washington to put pressure on Israel to exercise restraint.

On the 24th, Netanyahu mentioned in a speech to the United States Congress that Israel will make every effort to restore security in the northern border area of the country, and at the same time anyone who attacks Israel will pay a heavy price.

The Economist article said that United States and European diplomats are still engaged in shuttle diplomacy between Israel and Lebanon, hoping to persuade the armed forces of both sides to withdraw 7-10 kilometers from the border, but the current situation shows that hope is becoming increasingly slim.

Despite heightened border tensions, Al Jazeera quoted analysts as saying it would be difficult for Israel to expand its war against Lebanon if Gaza did not cease fire first.

Retired Lebanon Army Brigadier General Tannous Mouawad told Al Jazeera that "as long as there is a gun left in Gaza, the Israelis will not expand the fight against Lebanon." "When Gaza (a ceasefire is achieved), the Israelis will definitely turn to Lebanon."

Israel's Western allies strongly condemned the attack on the Golan Heights, while calling on all parties to exercise restraint, fearing that the outbreak of all-out war could further destabilize the Middle East.

According to the Associated Press, United States Secretary of State Blinken stressed at a press conference in Tokyo on the 28th that Israel "has the right to defend its citizens", but "does not want to see the conflict escalate." Spokesmen for the foreign ministries of United Kingdom and France issued similar statements on the same day.

Previously United States officials had warned that an escalation of the conflict with the Lebanon Allah party could draw Iran and other allies in the region into it.

The Iran government called on Israel to exercise restraint on the 28th. Iran ·Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani strongly warned Israel not to use the attack on the Golan Heights as an excuse to launch a new adventurous operation against Lebanon. He stressed that Israel's actions could lead to the continued development of the regional situation in the direction of instability, insecurity and war.

CCTV News quoted Iran media as saying on the 28th that missiles of Israel's air defense system fell in Israel's territory or controlled areas more than once. On the 20th of this month, a missile of Israel's Iron Dome air defense system fell into the Golan Heights, injuring two people. In addition, some recent fires in the Golan Heights and northern Israel were caused by Iron Dome air defense missiles that failed to hit their targets and fell.

Tor Wennesland, the United Nations special coordinator for ·the Middle East peace process, said on the 28th that the Israel and Lebanon Allah parties should "exercise maximum restraint" and warned that the escalation could "plunge the entire region into unimaginable disasters."